Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 01z HRRR is a crush job for the metro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 put that 4.3 over central PA they are getting slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: New HRRR run shifted it slightly north. We're so close to the sharp cutoff here as you said earlier. We could get a ton of rain or we could get almost nothing. I'll be staying up in case we get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: New HRRR run shifted it slightly north. We're so close to the sharp cutoff here as you said earlier. We could get a ton of rain or we could get almost nothing. I'll be staying up in case we get crushed. Yeah I'm thinking this favors areas further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I'm thinking this favors areas further north Radar looks that way too, but it's going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Heaviest will be north but this puts us (NYC metro) for a greater chance at svr .....I like the spring valley area for heaviest rain amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw For visual reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Heaviest will be north but this puts us (NYC metro) for a greater chance at svr .....I like the spring valley area for heaviest rain amounts Most models have 2 heavy rain areas-one that goes into UNY and well north of us with the mid level warm front and one further south with the surface warm front. Hopefully the same areas that got slammed in July don't again. The large heavy rain area is probably associated with the mid level warm front and will go north of most of us. HRRR develops more heavy rain east of where that line is in central PA and that would be I-78 to I-80 and NYC/LI's shot with the surface warm front. But if that front goes a little north so will the heavy rain. The higher CAPE is south of the front and where the severe threat would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 the severe should be riding just south of the warm front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Severe line forming just west of Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 warm front extends on a diagonal line south of mercer and middlesex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 I am all set on severe storms. Give me the rain and storms, but no tornadoes needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: If you’re all in then I have to be up to witness it It will just wake me up like it did the other morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Looks pretty meh to me honestly, at least in my neck of the woods (New Brunswick) Yeah the best CAPE/shear is south but the activity is further north so they don't coincide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Not meh only thing that's meh is the lack of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Supercell just west of EWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks pretty meh to me honestly, at least in my neck of the woods (New Brunswick) Yeah the best CAPE/shear is south but the activity is further north so they don't coincide I agree with you for our area. I just had a nice heavy downpour, but no lightning at all with it. From the way radar looks I think we could see a couple more downpours and maybe an inch or so of rain, but the really big amounts that would cause flooding are going to our north. So I'm going to bed now since it's not looking like anything spectacular for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Dry as a bone in south bayonne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Dry as a bone in south bayonne. Moved through quick , torrential downpours for sure but the line was moving at 30mph haha we ain't flooding with that type of motion. I'm surprised forky didn't catch that. This was never a flooding event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Moved through quick , torrential downpours for sure but the line was moving at 30mph haha we ain't flooding with that type of motion. I'm surprised forky didn't catch that. This was never a flooding event for us Yeah not sure what he was thinking. This had a wagons north look to it for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 bust for nyc.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 8/14 BLM: 90 EWR: 90 ACY: 89 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TTN: 87 NYC: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Last of the current batch moving thru here now... just 0.26" here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Had 1.17” here. Was expecting at least 2”. We’ll see what the max totals were but south of 78 this was pretty much a non event. Was very evident that was going to be the case based on radar late yesterday afternoon and especially during the evening. Really thought there was going to be a swath of 2-4” totals from the 78 / 80 corridor across the city into to southern CT. Based on radar overnight would think sone places may have gotten 2” we’ll see shortly when numbers come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 .9, it rained hard and got a little windy but nothing too terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Barely anything at all by the beach. Enough to wet the pavement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 .12 what a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 GFS/Euro switched places for next week. Now the Euro has stronger heat. Dicey pattern as it wouldn't take much to go from no heat to strong heat wave and vice versa 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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