August 2023

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Same here. I saw thousands of them last year but none this year. Strange how they just disappeared from our area. I don't know if the extremely dry weather we had in May had something to do with that. 

Same here.  Loaded last year, just disgusting and this year none, at least so far.  Thankfully.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Is this is a special bug thread? Anyway, not to be off-topic, CMC forecasting some high heat Tuesday and Wed of next week we are inside of 582dm thicknesses. Probably close to or around 100 Tuesday and about 98 before the b-door front comes through Wednesday if CMC were correct. Much cooler Thursday on brisk n-ne winds. GFS and ECMWF much different each model indicating one marginally hot day if that probably on Monday. We'll see which is right.

WX/PT

[wishcast_hater]

How is the weather looking for Tuesday evening? I'm going to the Guns N' Roses concert and don't want a rain out.

[SACRUS]

82 / 67 and partly/mostly cloudy.  Showers and storms later / overnigh and into Tue (8/15)t with the worst more north.   Wed (8/16) - Fri (8/18)  warm and more humid by Thu with next round of storms / showers with trough on Friday- Sat. 

 

Beyond there models correcting with the mega ridge centered in the southern plain peaking 600 DM.  Worst of the heat looks to stay south of the region but even the NW flow 8/20 - 8/23 looks warm with shot at 90.  NW flow goes more N/NE for a periodas the ridge periphery wanes south and west.  Overall warm with strongest heat just south. The Midsection and southeast look to broil.  Tropics alive by day 9/10.  Should ridge correct north - east hotter scenario. 

 

EC ridging does showup in the way beyond but seasonal tendeny would need to break to put much stak in it.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif  

   

 

 

[winterwx21]

Continues to look like a nice airmass coming in at the end of the week with dewpoints dropping to the 50s. Saturday looks like a spectacular day to start off the weekend with sunshine and low humidity. Then it heats up on sunday and we'll have to see what the magnitude of the heat is early next week, as WX/PT said. 

[SnowGoose69]

38 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

How is the weather looking for Tuesday evening? I'm going to the Guns N' Roses concert and don't want a rain out.

 

Does not look bad unless you are down in SNJ.  I think the convection here would depend on needing to develop near the surface low feature and would be later in the evening maybe 9pm-12am.  I am not confident much fires at all on the front 

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Does not look bad unless you are down in SNJ.  I think the convection here would depend on needing to develop near the surface low feature and would be later in the evening maybe 9pm-12am.  I am not confident much fires at all on the front 

The latest HRRR says otherwise.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The latest HRRR says otherwise.

 

Tonight may be bad but I don't see much happening Tuesday night or late day

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Tonight may be bad but I don't see much happening Tuesday night or late day

I wasn't aware that a threat existed for tomorrow night outside of an isolated pop up storm.

[NJwx85]

Flood watch just issued for here.

1-2" of rain with localized amounts exceeding 4"

11PM tonight until tomorrow AM.

This has been a very wet Summer here.

[Stormlover74]

Flood watch for all of Upton's zones

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
  areas, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven,
  Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex,
  Southern New Haven and Southern New London. Portions of northeast
  New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern
  Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen,
  Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union. Portions of
  southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings
  (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeast Suffolk, Northern
  Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwest Suffolk,
  Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeast
  Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester
  and Southwest Suffolk.

* WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of urban areas,
  as well as quick responding rivers, creeks, streams, and other
  low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - A basin average of 1 to 2" of rainfall are expected across the area tonight, with locally 3" possible. Much of this rainfall will fall in a 3 to 5 hr period tonight into early Tuesday morning, over areas that have seen 2 to 4" of rain in the last week. Isolated areas of flash flooding are likely, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible in the path of the most persistent thunderstorm activity.

[Rtd208]

Pretty hot day out there today.

Current temp 91/DP 68/RH 47%

[Rtd208]

Mt.Holly issues a Flood Watch as well.

https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=88725508

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

If anyone was overly concerned about the nams going south at 12z they came back at 18z to flooding around the metro. 

[dWave]

90 now

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If anyone was overly concerned about the nams going south at 12z they came back at 18z to flooding around the metro. 

Can we have a horse brought behind the barn and shotgun emoji for the NAM’s? 

[Stormlover74]

Ewr at 89. Probably 90 between hours which would be a triple 90 heatwave 

[Nibor]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can we have a horse brought behind the barn and shotgun emoji for the NAM’s? 

I hope they never retire the NAM. The runs that thing pumps out sometimes is always good for a laugh. 

[MANDA]

Snippet from Mt. Holly AFD.

Situation seems ripe for some locally excessive totals.  Would not be surprised to see totals of 3-4" over a rather short period of time.  Hopefully will not fall over areas that have already seen excessive totals over the last month. 

[psv88]

88 today, 89 yesterday. Helluva way to run a “cool down”. 

[qg_omega]

50 minutes ago, psv88 said:

88 today, 89 yesterday. Helluva way to run a “cool down”. 

Average under AGW

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  98 (2005)
NYC: 99 (1988)
LGA: 98 (2016)


Lows:

EWR: 50 (1941)
NYC: 54 (1964)
LGA: 69  (1964)

Historical:

 

1936 - Temperatures across much of eastern Kansas soared above 110 degrees. Kansas City MO hit an all-time record high of 113 degrees. It was one of sixteen consecutive days of 100 degree heat for Kansas City. During that summer there were a record 53 days of 100 degree heat, and during the three summer months Kansas City received just 1.12 inches of rain. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

 

1953: Hurricane Barbara hits North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Damage from the storm was relatively minor, totaling around $1.3 million (1953 USD). Most of it occurred in North Carolina and Virginia from crop damage. The hurricane left several injuries, some traffic accidents, as well as seven fatalities in the eastern United States; at least two were due to electrocution from downed power lines. Offshore Atlantic Canada, a small boat sunk, killing its crew of two.

 

1969: Hurricane Camille, a powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on this day. It rapidly intensified, and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day, it was a Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Camille was spawned on August 5th by a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. The storm became a tropical disturbance four days later on the 9th and a tropical storm on the 14th with a 999-millibar pressure center and 55 mph surface winds.

 

1987 - Slow moving thunderstorms deluged northern and western suburbs of Chicago IL with torrential rains. O'Hare Airport reported 9.35 inches in 18 hours, easily exceeding the previous 24 hour record of 6.24 inches. Flooding over a five day period resulted in 221 million dollars damage. It was Chicago's worst flash flood event, particularly for northern and western sections of the city. Kennedy Expressway became a footpath for thousands of travelers to O'Hare Airport as roads were closed. The heavy rains swelled the Des Plaines River above flood stage, and many persons had to be rescued from stalled vehicles on flooded roads. (13th- 14th) (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Eighteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, and the water temperature at Lake Erie reached a record 80 degrees. Portland ME reported a record fourteen straight days of 80 degree weather. Milwaukee WI reported a record 34 days of 90 degree heat for the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms resulted in about fifty reports of severe weather in the northeastern U.S. One person was killed at Stockbridge MI when a tornado knocked a tree onto their camper. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Illinois soaked the town of Battendorf with 2.10 inches of rain in thirty minutes. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Hobson. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

Not that I trust the hrrr but it weakens that initial batch before it makes it up here before bringing the heavy stuff in after midnight

[steve392]

What is it with the Baltimore region that storms just explode down there as they move east/northeast? 

[forkyfork]

we're getting pwats near 2.5" without a tropical system. that's ridiculous 

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, steve392 said:

What is it with the Baltimore region that storms just explode down there as they move east/northeast? 

Warm front nearby. Where that front sets up will be where the heaviest rain happens. Models have it near/over LI, so my area into central NJ might actually be the jackpot this time. If the front shifts north so does the heaviest rain. 

Somebody will definitely get soaked overnight. The Aug 2014 monsoon over Suffolk County was from one of these warm fronts in a very moist environment. 

[JonClaw]

 

[Rmine1]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Warm front nearby. Where that front sets up will be where the heaviest rain happens. Models have it near/over LI, so my area into central NJ might actually be the jackpot this time. If the front shifts north so does the heaviest rain. 

Somebody will definitely get soaked overnight. The Aug 2014 monsoon over Suffolk County was from one of these warm fronts in a very moist environment. 

Please no. I think we had 12+” of rain in a matter of hours.