August 2023

[Snowlover11]

weenie suicide if this was winter jesus.  hopefully we still get a decent soaking.

[Rtd208]

[LoboLeader1]

High of 83F yesterday, currently 65 as of 5:30 this AM.

[Allsnow]

Everything juiced up again overnight for today’s rainfall. Even the HRRR is showing heavy rain. I guess 00z was a blip run 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   78degs.(71/88) or +2.

Reached 91 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:  76-81, wind w. to s., m. cloudy, Rain 1pm-8pm., 70 tomorrow AM.

73*(77%RH) here at 7am{was 72 earlier}.     77* at 10am.      79* at 11am.       76* Down to 73* at 5pm

[SnoSki14]

I noticed the big heat signal keeps getting pushed back. 

Maybe some stray 90 readings next 10 days but mostly 80s. We had more than double the 90s by this time last year.

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I noticed the big heat signal keeps getting pushed back. 

Maybe some stray 90 readings next 10 days but mostly 80s. We had more than double the 90s by this time last year.

The gefs and gfs are always hot in the long range. I doubt we see much heat the rest of the summer as we are already at 8/10 

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The gefs and gfs is always hot in the long range. I doubt we see much heat the rest of the summer as we are already at 8/10 

I think it'll still happen but it won't be as severe or prolonged as GFS indicated. 

Heat really loses its punch after August 20th.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I noticed the big heat signal keeps getting pushed back. 

Maybe some stray 90 readings next 10 days but mostly 80s. We had more than double the 90s by this time last year.

Yep I opined that the back of summer was broken with the 7/29 cold front so far that looks to be the case...

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep I opined that the back of summer was broken with the 7/29 cold front so far that looks to be the case...

We'll see I suppose. Of course nowadays back broken means closer to normal rather than top 5-10 warm months. 

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think it'll still happen but it won't be as severe or prolonged as GFS indicated. 

Heat really loses its punch after August 20th.

I got a bad sunburn last week

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I got a bad sunburn last week

That has nothing to do with heat-it's sun angle.  It could be 55 or 95 degrees today and you'd still burn the same.

[Snowlover11]

hopefully we get 115+ come labor day ill be on the beach down the shore, last few labor days have been cool.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

hopefully we get 115+ come labor day ill be on the beach down the shore, last few labor days have been cool.

Haha. I’m sure we will get a string of 90’s come September. 

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That has nothing to do with heat-it's sun angle.  It could be 55 or 95 degrees today and you'd still burn the same.

One of the worst sunburns I ever had was from skiing on St. Patrick's Day, thankfully it was just my face and a patch on the back of my head due to the opening on the adjustable hat I was wearing LOL. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

One of the worst sunburns I ever had was from skiing on St. Patrick's Day, thankfully it was just my face and a patch on the back of my head due to the opening on the adjustable hat I was wearing LOL. 

yeah we tend to not think of it when it's cool out but March/April sun is strong.    I had the same thing happen after skiing after the 4/1/97 blizzard....

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Everything juiced up again overnight for today’s rainfall. Even the HRRR is showing heavy rain. I guess 00z was a blip run 

Could be .2 or 2" 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I noticed the big heat signal keeps getting pushed back. 

Maybe some stray 90 readings next 10 days but mostly 80s. We had more than double the 90s by this time last year.

I like seasonal trends. Best way to predict where we are heading short/medium term.

 

Your post is a good description of summer thus far. Considering we are on a march to September at this point, we can start counting down the days when extended 90s arent possible. 

I imagine if this was 30 years ago, with lower humidity levels, this would be a cooler than normal summer.

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Could be .2 or 2" 

 

[FPizz]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Get us to .75 and I'll be happy

[SACRUS]

 

77 / 68 . Cloudy with light rain showers around.   Less robust totals from previously forecast now will likely yield  0.25 or more area wide.  Clearing later nd overnight into a very nice / warm Fri (8/11).  Perhaps the warm spots touch upper 80s to 90.  The weekend looks warm and humid and  mainly dry outside some popup storms later Saturday.  With enough sun the warm spots to 90, otherwise mid  - upper 80s. 

 

 Overall warm and humid to hot at times.  The next trough plows through Tue (8/15) - Wed (8/16) with storms.   Warm back up by later next week before trough moves through in whats looking like a bit of back and forth with heat coming in spurts ahead of the troughs.  In the way beyond we'll see if ridging sustains east of the southern plains.    The Westrn Atl Ridge is nearby but not building west as initially forecast in the next 10 days.

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Nams lol...I'm not even posting 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nams lol...I'm not even posting 

what an awful model--ridiculous changes in 6 hrs every run

-

radar suggest they will be wrong with their 12z solutions

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what an awful model--ridiculous changes in 6 hrs every run

-

radar suggest they will be wrong with their 12z solutions

Just take that horse behind the barn already. 

Whatever rain we get is welcome here although the last two days were gorgeous for August. Like others said could be .2 or 2”, the smaller amount is probably more likely. 

[Stormlover74]

At least the rgem has .5 to 1" for most of the area

[MANDA]

I'll be happy with .50" at this point.  Anything above that is gravy on the biscuit.  I think the 1"+ amounts are off the table at this point.

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least the rgem has .5 to 1" for most of the area

Doesn't look like the big event that yesterday's 12z models showed, but at least RGEM looks decent as you said. Latest HRRR run has heavy rain going across central NJ with our area being on the edge of it. Tough call for this afternoon. I'll be happy if we get a solid half inch like RGEM shows.

[Allsnow]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just take that horse behind the barn already. 

Whatever rain we get is welcome here although the last two days were gorgeous for August. Like others said could be .2 or 2”, the smaller amount is probably more likely. 

Wasn’t the nam schedule for decommission years ago? 

[Rmine1]

Current radar doesn’t exactly raise the confidence level for much more than some light showers. Hopefully it will change 

[SACRUS]

Records: 8/10

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (1949)
NYC: 98 (1949)
LGA: 99 (1949)

Lows:

 

EWR: 57 (1962)
NYC: 55 (1879)
LGA: 57 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1856 - The Isle Derniere (Last Island) disaster occurred off the coast of Louisiana. A storm tide drowned 140 vacationers as a five foot wave swept over Low Island during a hurricane. (The Weather Channel)

1882 - Sandusky OH noted a four minute snow squall during the morning, frost was reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and a killing frost was reported at Cresco IA. (The Weather Channel)

 

1884: An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering a magnitude 5.5, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The tremor made houses shake, chimneys fall, and residents wonder what the heck was going on, according to a New York Times article two days later. 

1898 - The temperature at Pendleton OR climbed all the way to 119 degrees at set a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1924 - Colorado's deadliest tornado killed a woman and nine children in one house along its twenty-mile path east southeast of Thurman. Mennonite men had left the farm to provide possible aid, as the 200-yard wide storm was first seen while far away.(The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature soared to 114 degrees at Plain Dealing, LA, and reached 120 degrees at Ozark AR, to establish record highs for those two states. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date. Macon GA hit 101 degrees. A tropical depression deluged southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana with torrential rains. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Citizens of Bluefield, WV, where the Chamber of Commerce provides free lemonade on days when the temperature warms into the 90s, were able to celebrate their record high of 90 degrees. Eight other cities also reported record high temperatures for the date,including Bismarck ND with a reading of 102 degrees.(The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary)