winterwx21 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 77 / 61 and partly cloudy. Warm and less humid and perhaps less cloudy than Saturday. Mid / upper 80s. Mon (8/7) - Wed (8/9) warm , humid and very stormy. There doesnt seem to be enough breaks in any of the clouds to offer a few hot spots 90, but airmass is warm enough. Rain could add up 1 - 2 inches widespread with heavier amounts >3 inches. Beyond there the western Atlantic ridge is building west in phases, first bumping against the trough and establishing boundary by late week into the weekend Fri (8/11) - Sat (8/12), perhaos a vigorous piece of energy with storms / heavy rain.. By Sun (8/13) and into Mon (8/14) heights and humidity are risging but still storms chances. By early next week the W. Atl Ridge is pushing 594 DM into or just south of the area (similar to late July) and the next shot at some stronger heat. Overall - warm / humid with some heat in the way beyond with tropics setup to come alive. You keep including Wednesday in the humid/stormy, so I just want to point out that Wednesday is actually going to be a beautiful dry day. A sunny breezy day with a WNW wind and dewpoints dropping to the high 50s. A spectacular day Wednesday, but we should get a good amount of rain Monday into Tuesday as you pointed out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Nam has most of the rain north and west of NYC area on Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam has most of the rain north and west of NYC area on Tuesday Long range NAM is usually really good with convection. Much like the CRAS is for east coast snowstorms. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Long range NAM is usually really good with convection. Much like the CRAS is for east coast snowstorms. Praying it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Praying it's right It's not. It's definitely going to rain. That's a strong system for this time of year, just not sure who maxes out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's not. It's definitely going to rain. That's a strong system for this time of year, just not sure who maxes out It's definitely going to rain on Monday (one round in the morning and another at night), but he's talking about Tuesday. I see RGEM also doesn't show much activity for Tuesday. We could see another round of storms Tuesday afternoon, but that's a big question mark right now. So he does have hope of it possibly being dry for his event Tuesday. Monday is a different story though. As you said it's an impressive system, and we should get a significant amount of rain between the 2 rounds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's definitely going to rain on Monday (one round in the morning and another at night), but he's talking about Tuesday. I see RGEM also doesn't show much activity for Tuesday. We could see another round of storms Tuesday afternoon, but that's a big question mark right now. So he does have hope of it possibly being dry for his event Tuesday. Monday is a different story though. As you said it's an impressive system, and we should get a significant amount of rain between the 2 rounds. Monday is a washout 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Monday is a washout Much of the day is dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 It does look like a break between the morning and late afternoon or evening convection. Several models clear out enough for mid to upper 80s pushing to near Philly which would help to destabilize the atmosphere for the evening severe potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 6, 2023 Author Share Posted August 6, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Slight Risk now into most of the NYC metro with the exception of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Slight Risk now into most of the NYC metro with the exc Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going. Spc has a 45% severe wind risk for DC not as impressive for our area 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 6, 2023 Author Share Posted August 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going. The area from Trenton down to Philly is always a "hot spot" for severe weather events. This will probably be no different. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Praying it's right Even the Euro is dry now for Tuesday. It's looking more likely now that Tuesday's cold pool storms with the UL will stay north of the area. I still wouldn't rule out isolated activity for Tuesday, but Monday is our main event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going. Yeah, morning stuff will kill severe chances up here tomorrow afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, morning stuff will kill severe chances up here tomorrow afternoon The timing could be later than we want too. RGEM doesn't hit us with the 2nd round until 9pm when we're losing the daytime heating. But at least it looks likely that we'll get plenty of rain between the 2 rounds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: You keep including Wednesday in the humid/stormy, so I just want to point out that Wednesday is actually going to be a beautiful dry day. A sunny breezy day with a WNW wind and dewpoints dropping to the high 50s. A spectacular day Wednesday, but we should get a good amount of rain Monday into Tuesday as you pointed out. Yes it does look good for wed. May be thw way worded or read through Tue into Wed . Wed looks like this past Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 3PM Roundup New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 87 (have they cleaned the park or just recent dryness?) EWR: 86 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 TTN: 84 LGA: 84 ACY: 84 BLM: 83 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The timing could be later than we want too. RGEM doesn't hit us with the 2nd round until 9pm when we're losing the daytime heating. But at least it looks likely that we'll get plenty of rain between the 2 rounds. Yup. Looks like whatever thunder we get will be early tomorrow morning and Monday evening more straight form rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 @Rtd208 weenie me all you want…it usually means I’ll be correct 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Currently 78F here in the Berks, 85 back home in HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 6, 2023 Author Share Posted August 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @Rtd208 weenie me all you want…it usually means I’ll be correct Not when you say stupid things. Edit @ 3:42pm: @Allsnow To further expand on this post I think its premature to say the morning activity will kill off chances for severe storms late in the day/evening. We have to see if we can clear out and destablize early enough first, if not then I would tend to agree with you. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Even the Euro is dry now for Tuesday. It's looking more likely now that Tuesday's cold pool storms with the UL will stay north of the area. I still wouldn't rule out isolated activity for Tuesday, but Monday is our main event. 18z Nam also for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @Rtd208 weenie me all you want…it usually means I’ll be correct I have to disagree due to the potency of this system. Not very common this time of year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight and again tomorrow. Tomorrow's thunderstorms could be strong to severe, especially south and west of New York City. Flash flooding is possible where the heaviest thunderstorms develop. Drier weather will follow and continue through midweek. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week, but additional locations could reach or break their August monthly records. Phoenix topped out at a record-tying 114°. El Paso (112°) and Del Rio (110°) set August monthly record high temperatures. Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 9th consecutive day. That broke the record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921. Brownsville (8 consecutive days) and Lafayette (8 consecutive days) also set new marks for most consecutive 100° days. New Orleans reached 100° for a record-tying second consecutive day. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -24.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.296 today. On August 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.503 (RMM). The August 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.158 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 8/6 PHL: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 NYC: 87 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 86 BLM: 84 ACY: 84 ISP: 83 JFK: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I have to disagree due to the potency of this system. Not very common this time of year Just want some rain, don't really care about severe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 70 degree dew points are back. Didn’t miss them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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