August 2023

[TWCCraig]

Love how most of the smoke went around us. It's mostly elevated, but the RAP has the smoke to our west moving over the area tomorrow. Skies will be noticeably gray tomorrow

[Maureen]

12 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

This might be the best 4 day mid summer stretch that I've ever experienced. Picture perfect weather for outside activities.

A rare treat around here for July/August! 

[psv88]

Truly incredible stretch of weather. Wow. 

[lee59]

58.7 my low

[BucksCO_PA]

51 degrees at ABE this morning, 2nd coldest for the date (49 degrees - 1947)

[RCNYILWX]

Idk if it's on the radar yet since higher end patterns for severe weather in the east are not necessarily common, but holy moly at the 00z Euro for Monday.

Sub 1000 mb low pressure over the northeast is impressive for early August, let alone May or June. And 70+ dew points were forecast up to I-90 during the afternoon and evening, amidst strongly supportive low level and deep layer wind shear. The 12z GFS is honestly not too far off from that.

I'm originally from College Point in Queens, worked at OKX from Feb 2009 until July 2010 and been at NWS Chicago ever since. I'll be visiting my family Friday the 4th to Friday the 11th and staying in CP, so I'll be there on Monday if that setup holds.

[RCNYILWX]

Idk if it's on the radar yet since higher end patterns for severe weather in the east are not necessarily common, but holy moly at the 00z Euro for Monday.

Sub 1000 mb low pressure over the northeast is impressive for early August, let alone May or June. And 70+ dew points were forecast up to I-90 during the afternoon and evening, amidst strongly supportive low level and deep layer wind shear. The 12z GFS is honestly not too far off from that.

I'm originally from College Point in Queens, worked at OKX from Feb 2009 until July 2010 and been at NWS Chicago ever since. I'll be visiting my family Friday the 4th to Friday the 11th and staying in CP, so I'll be there on Monday if that setup holds.

Quick note on 12z Euro: It slowed down enough and tracked farther north with 500 mb low and surface low to maybe keep most of Monday out of the game threat wise for NYC metro and bring in Tuesday as the day. Lots of time to watch this and certainly could end up as no big deal. Pieces could potentially come into place though.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Yes all the models showing strong low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes to a position north of Maine early next week dragging with it a strong cold front which could initiate a severe weather threat August 7th-9th across most of the northeast. Behind that high pressure which is initially on the cool side builds in but the longer range models/ensembles show how WAR swallows that HP system up and back builds a heat and humidity pump around it for mid August.

WX/PT 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Yes all the models showing strong low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes to a position north of Maine early next week dragging with it a strong cold front which could initiate a severe weather threat August 7th-9th across most of the northeast. Behind that high pressure which is initially on the cool side builds in but the longer range models/ensembles show how WAR swallows that HP system up and back builds a heat and humidity pump around it for mid August.

WX/PT 

Euro now showing a second low pressure accompanied by another cold front possibly delaying the heat/humidity from 8/14 to 8/16. Just ahead of that front it appears we could see a day of warmth possibly heat and humidity on the 12th.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

Euro cut back on rainfall…

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro cut back on rainfall…

For Friday?   18z NAM doing the same.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Euro cut back on rainfall…

The southern stream low is less phased with the northern stream so the deeper moisture from the south stays separate this run. The OP Euro can sometimes be overamped. Now looks like a regular frontal passage with the typical scattered convection. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Where did summer go?! Not liking this. Going to the Catskills Saturday. A high of 73?! September vibes.


(Sorry for the double post in July thread. Tapatalk app won’t let me delete it)


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[Rmine1]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Where did summer go?! Not liking this. Going to the Catskills Saturday. A high of 73?! September vibes.


(Sorry for the double post in July thread. Tapatalk app won’t let me delete it)


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Sounds ideal to me. Don’t forget to stop by BWBev before you leave! 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Sounds ideal to me. Don’t forget to stop by BWBev before you leave! 

Probably Hicksville they have a good selection this week lol


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[Rmine1]

7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Probably Hicksville they have a good selection this week lol


.

May the Schwartz be with you!

[CIK62]

This looks decidedly +3:

[donsutherland1]

The day started with unseasonably cool readings. Low temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 59°
Danbury: 51°
Islip: 61°
New Haven: 59°
New York City: 64°
Newark: 63°
Philadelphia: 63°
Poughkeepsie: 51°

Afterward, the mercury rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Fair and pleasant days coupled with low humidity will continue through tomorrow. Showers and thundershowers are likely on Friday. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August. In fact, the latest ECMWF weeklies show no notable heat through at least the first half of August.

As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat will likely rebuild later in the week in the U.S. Southwest. Cities such as Del Rio, El Paso, Phoenix, and Tucson could approach or reach their August high temperature records. Already, Phoenix topped out at 111° today and Del Rio has begun its unprecedented third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) of the year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -6.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today.

On July 31 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.686 (RMM). The July 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.686 (RMM).

 

[Evie3]

Around this date in 1896 - interesting retrospective

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Where did summer go?! Not liking this. Going to the Catskills Saturday. A high of 73?! September vibes.


(Sorry for the double post in July thread. Tapatalk app won’t let me delete it)


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After last week's humidity I'd take in a heartbeat. And we all know it'll be back. 

[SACRUS]

 

8/2

 

EWR: 83
PHL: 83
New Brnswck: 82
NYC: 81
TEB: 80
TTN: 80
LGA: 79
ISP: 79
BLM: 78
JFK: 78
ACY: 78

[NorthShoreWx]

Smithtown temps for Wednesday August 2.

Low 60

High 79

Deep Blue Skies.  Good stuff!

Current/1am temp is 61 (Thursday 8/3)

[gravitylover]

16 hours ago, psv88 said:

I’m in Montauk and it’s gorgeous. 
 

55 at home this morning 

I did a day at Montauk last week, ended up at Robert Moses today. Looking at Smith Point next week. Boy, you couldn't have ordered a nicer week to be out there. 

[SnoSki14]

I think we avoid a lot of the big time heat but holy moly I've never seen such a heat dome as the one the GFS showed out west in the long range (widespread 600dms with 603+)

Really hope that's just a fluke. 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we avoid a lot of the big time heat but holy moly I've never seen such a heat dome as the one the GFS showed out west in the long range (widespread 600dms with 603+)

Really hope that's just a fluke. 

I know last summer was hot here, but it seems the past few years we’ve avoided the truly record breaking, insane heat yes?

Thinking back to the June 2021 Pac NW heat dome as well. I know we had multiple 100 days last summer, but I don’t recall a truly sustained ‘giga heatwave’ around here recently, just our usual ‘NYC Metro Swampass Special.’

Is that more because dews cap the top end heat, or have we not had the sustained high heights pattern that would build a traditional heat dome here yet? I’m sure our time is coming if it’s the latter. 

[BxEngine]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Lol kiss of death

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I know last summer was hot here, but it seems the past few years we’ve avoided the truly record breaking, insane heat yes?

Thinking back to the June 2021 Pac NW heat dome as well. I know we had multiple 100 days last summer, but I don’t recall a truly sustained ‘giga heatwave’ around here recently, just our usual ‘NYC Metro Swampass Special.’

Is that more because dews cap the top end heat, or have we not had the sustained high heights pattern that would build a traditional heat dome here yet? I’m sure our time is coming if it’s the latter. 

The one common denominator to extreme heat events like the PAC NW heat dome was drought feedback. We have been very wet over the last decade. So we haven’t been able to challenge the near to all-time record highs set back in 2010-2011 when droughts were present from the Plains to the East Coast. A PAC NW magnitude event for our area would mean our first 110°+ reading. So luckily, we haven’t had that type or drought here since the 1960s. But we have made up for it with much higher dewpoints and consistent very high 90° day count years. 
 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
Newark Area	ThreadEx	108
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
HARRISON	COOP	107
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	106
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	106
RINGWOOD	COOP	106
SOMERDALE 4 SW	COOP	106
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	105
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	105
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	105
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	105
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	105
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	104
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	104
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	104
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	104
BOUND BROOK 2W	COOP	104
PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
CRANFORD	COOP	104
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	104
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	104

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
MINEOLA	COOP	108
WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105
CHEMUNG	COOP	104
ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP	WBAN	104
GLENS FALLS FARM	COOP	104
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	104
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	104
New York-Central Park Area	ThreadEx	104
RHINEBECK 4SE	COOP	104

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NORRISTOWN	COOP	108
Reading Area	ThreadEx	106
READING REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	106
LEWISTOWN	COOP	106
STEVENSON DAM	COOP	106
LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT	COOP	105
RENOVO	COOP	105
MILLHEIM	COOP	105
NEW CASTLE 1 N	COOP	105
MARCUS HOOK	COOP	105
SAFE HARBOR DAM	COOP	105
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	105
SHIPPENSBURG	COOP	105
HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT	WBAN	105
DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT	WBAN	105
Philadelphia Center City Area	ThreadEx	104
RAYSTOWN LAKE 2	COOP	104
HUNTINGDON	COOP	104
HAMBURG	COOP	104
ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	104
Allentown Area	ThreadEx	104
FORD CITY 4 S DAM	COOP	104
CHAMBERSBURG 1 ESE	COOP	104
WEST CHESTER 2 NW	COOP	104
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	104
WILLIAMSPORT 2	COOP	104
SELINSGROVE PENN VALLEY AP	WBAN	104

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Lol kiss of death

Pretty much

[lee59]

Upper 50s again last night. Can't ask for better night time temperatures, considering it is the hottest time of the year.