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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Departures at CON so far this summer...

Jun -- Max: -2.4F Min: +0.5F
Jul -- Max: +0.8F Min: +3.6F
Aug -- Max: -4.3F Min: -1.4F

Add a ton of rain and clouds to that and we have a cool look in the extended.

Even MHT looks like a lock to finish JJA BN, and I'm still convinced it's running warm. 

Atleast give me some sun. I've had about 15 minutes in the past 3 days. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wow just fucking wow. This meso passed a half mile N of me

So the little couplet on the top is shown right over Byron Randall Rd where that TOR damage is.  Nice timing for the BOX lowest base velocity sweep.  Not your classic EF2 sig, but it is indeed there.  Low LCLs and strong winds ftw.  The red spot below at the intersection of 14 and 116 is just folding, not a couplet.  Maybe an area of slightly higher localized gusts.  

Screenshot_20230818_221908_Chrome_crop_68.thumb.jpg.9cd68bc197e4e677715334c448ad00cc.jpg

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Just read the first couple pages of this thread what a war ridge Retro fail on longer range ensembles . Reminds me of LR modeling last winter trying to raise heights in SW over and over only to simply be confused again . I thought there was a good shot it would retro mid month but after it was delayed about 5x , it became likely to me it was all a dream 

Maybe September?

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9 hours ago, radarman said:

So the little couplet on the top is shown right over Byron Randall Rd where that TOR damage is.  Nice timing for the BOX lowest base velocity sweep.  Not your classic EF2 sig, but it is indeed there.  Low LCLs and strong winds ftw.  The red spot below at the intersection of 14 and 116 is just folding, not a couplet.  Maybe an area of slightly higher localized gusts.  

Screenshot_20230818_221908_Chrome_crop_68.thumb.jpg.9cd68bc197e4e677715334c448ad00cc.jpg

Thanks Eric

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2 hours ago, BrianW said:
 
YTD departures 
 
HVN
 
J +10.9
F +5.1
M +4.1
A +5.1
M +.8
J +.3
J +4.1
A +1.1
 
GON
J +10.1
F +4.8
M +3.5
A +4.4
M +1.1
J +.2
J +3.4
A +.8

IJD 

Jan +10

Feb  +3.7

Mar  +1.6

April  +3.7

May  -2.1

June  -1.1

July +2.9

August -1.4

Forky >"We don't get BN summer months anymore"

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would have to dig in a little deeper to see if there was any MCV or something like that (didn’t see much evidence of the vort max that early), but 0-1 km shear was 20-25 kt. Significant tornadoes become more likely as you push 20 kt.

I found it interesting that the meso low almost cycled or redeveloped. The earlier one in CT that dumped on Kevin went into the 495 area and the other one developed near Steve and caused the tornadoes. 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We had family from Canada over and we rented a house in Chatham. Evacuated that day and were one of the last cars to cross the bridge. Won’t forget that one. Damage in Brockton was terrible, but the cape and islands got crushed. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had family from Canada over and we rented a house in Chatham. Evacuated that day and were one of the last cars to cross the bridge. Won’t forget that one. Damage in Brockton was terrible, but the cape and islands got crushed. 

Long overdue for a Cane here in New England….Lots of tree growth since 91; when we do get one people will be shocked at the damage and expecting power to be back in 4 hours 

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15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Long overdue for a Cane here in New England….Lots of tree growth since 91; when we do get one people will be shocked at the damage and expecting power to be back in 4 hours 

As someone who installs Kohler generators every day on the Cape, south shore and SEMA, I approve of this post

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