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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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23 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

What's so odd is that most of them didn't come through to put an end to a stretch of really hot, humid 90+ degree weather.  That's usually what drives most of the severe storms around here, if it's not a remnant of a hurricane anyway.

Actually, that is more what it reminds me of.  How a transitioning tropical storm might kick off severe weather.

That has been a product of weak fronts really. But overall, I don't think we've had many major severe weather events which have occurred to end heat waves or break high humidity. Sure there have been a few, but for the most part we're dealing with pretty poor lapse rates and weak shear during those stretches...or when strong fronts approach stronger shear is lacking behind the front.

Setups like today or going to become more common moving forward. Anytime we have summers with above-average SST's and are surging dewpoints into the lower or mid 70's with strong troughs with great shear moving through these setups will be several times occurring. 

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.70 today and the .17 yesterday  brings up over 8 inches on the month.  8.78 so far in August after 15.08 in July and 8.46 in June. (32.32 in less than 3 months)

 

With 23.86 since the start of July, it means I have averaged 1/2 inch per day for 6 weeks now.

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1 minute ago, tunafish said:

always laugh when i see people letting their irrigation run while it's raining out.  America!

It has been pouring rain and their sprinkler system has been on....same people who will snow blow around their cars and then remove the snow from their cars...so they then have to use the snow blower for a 2nd time to remove the snow around the cars....takes them hours to do a driveway that can hold 4 vehicles.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The underrated days produce. Wow.

These setups are tough. If you're not a forecaster doing day-to-day forecasting these setups probably just go unrecognized because they aren't the "big" setups. They are also tough because it's not like they produce every time. It all comes down to just getting enough CAPE in the lowest few km combined with the right amount of shear. There really is no "threshold" either too for value. Ultimately, it's dependent on whether a convective updraft can become mature enough to utilize the ingredients. 

But looking at mesoanalysis this morning, you had a pocket of 150 m2s2 of 0-1km helicity combined with 100+ J of 3km CAPE. That's a pretty solid combination, especially with LCL's around 500m. Warm front probably provided enough llvl lift and inflow was drawing in from the high theta-e air. 

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2 hours ago, scoob40 said:

Not nearly enough for Weatherwiz and Cyclone 68.

In this neck of the woods it's been absolutely the least impactful season in terms of wind I can recall in 20 years.  We were due for a dud.  Congrats to S CT, Cape Cod, and SEMA though.  You love to see it.  

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'll take the under, but certainly impressive regardless

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55 minutes ago, klw said:

.70 today and the .17 yesterday  brings up over 8 inches on the month.  8.78 so far in August after 15.08 in July and 8.46 in June. (32.32 in less than 3 months)

 

With 23.86 since the start of July, it means I have averaged 1/2 inch per day for 6 weeks now.

Wow, your drought is almost as bad as Taunton's!

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Loss of shingles is upper end 100 mph, trees are sketchy damage indicators at best, I’ve never really seen them rated higher than 100 mph unless they’ve been debarked (and then you’ll have better damage indicators around). 

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