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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky knew as I posted this on that date 

Now he says August heat and humidity returning pattern is not such a lock 

 

Never have any idea of what he’s saying. The low he referred to got absorbed moved away. Totally different thing led to this cool down.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern will flip to warmer and more humid. I think that’s a lock. Not 95/75 but I would guess lots of upper 80s and dews 65-70+ after 8/12 or so. Hell between now and then it will get steamy a couple of times. No big heat though.

We respect you making a call and putting some general numbers along with a time frame . 
 

Do you have any thoughts on the tropics 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We respect you making a call and putting some general numbers along with a time frame . 
 

Do you have any thoughts on the tropics 

If it fails can always bump it. I actually thought this week would be warmer like 10 days ago, but the pattern flip really allowed these troughs to dig in. 
 

Tropics look dead. Even with favorable forcing it’s quiet. I think dust is an issue currently. But as we head into September, I’m worried shear increases overall. So I’m not really bullish at the moment. Doesn’t mean a storm or two can’t pop over the next 2-3 weeks,  but nothing looks too exciting currently. 

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25 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m honestly not see a sustained return to above average warmth. This might be the first time in awhile we have a below average JJA, which is quite shocking. But since below average months are so rare now I hope we don’t use up all our juice before winter. 

Where do you live? Because July was top 5 warmest . And Aug looks to be +1 to +3

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14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where do you live? Because July was top 5 warmest . And Aug looks to be +1 to +3

I'm right on the CT/NY border. July finished 1.3 degrees above average for us with an average of 70.8. Our dews were the biggest story, but we have not had a heatwave yet. June was -2.5 degrees from average with an average temp of 62.2 degrees. July was our wettest July with 10.05 inches. I do think if we could dry out we would be above average for August, but right now based on what I see through mid-month, we'd really need to take off with temps because our next few nights will really drop that average temp down for the month. We could see upper 40s here tomorrow morning. As currently modeled, we won't break 83 until next Thursday and we have 4 nights with lows below 60. JJA to date we are still below average (albeit the exceptionally warm new averages). 

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I'm right on the CT/NY border. July finished 1.3 degrees above average for us with an average of 70.8. Our dews were the biggest story, but we have not had a heatwave yet. June was -2.5 degrees from average with an average temp of 62.2 degrees. July was our wettest July with 10.05 inches. I do think if we could dry out we would be above average for August, but right now based on what I see through mid-month, we'd really need to take off with temps because our next few nights will really drop that average temp down for the month. We could see upper 40s here tomorrow morning. As currently modeled, we won't break 83 until next Thursday and we have 4 nights with lows below 60. JJA to date we are still below average (albeit the exceptionally warm new averages). 

We went from a few days of cooler to now after the 12th. Dog days will come but right now looks like we don't break 85 before mid month.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Def a few ACATT wearing their whiskey glasses tonight. Line em’ up .. line em’ up .. line em’ up .. knock em’ back.. knock em’ back .. knock ‘em’ back .. See the world thru ACATT glasses.

Just remember there’s a difference between those who point out flaws in some of the analysis, and not thinking it will get humid again.  Getting humid is very easy in this climate, it’s going to happen in August and September for periods of time.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Just remember there’s a difference between those who point out flaws in some of the analysis, and not thinking it will get humid again.  Getting humid is very easy in this climate, it’s going to happen in August and September for periods of time.

 It was said many times by a few here, The first 2 weeks look to be below normal, Nobody cancelled summer, But the days and days of high 80's low 90's and dews in the 70's are not happening.

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

14.5" here.  The big high-end VT flood event covered almost half of that.  Even without that event, there was another 8+" of rainfall scattered about the month. 

16”+ here. With half that coming with the flood. Water is still coming out of places you don’t normally see it. My new golf course is pretty wet. Took a bout 45 minutes of rain Saturday to make it unplayable. 

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