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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just looking forward to some year having Hurricane Bill surf again. Most epic surf day of my life. Clean and humongous long rollers with sets of 25 ft.

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Would just like to get some more 6 - 8 footers coming in to do some body boarding.  This past Sunday was weak sauce.  Hopefully this coming Sunday will be better.

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just looking forward to some year having Hurricane Bill surf again. Most epic surf day of my life. Clean and humongous long rollers with sets of 25 ft.

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That seems to be the benchmark for swells for SE exposed New England beaches 

Last sept 23 there was a very big swell that built fast in the late evening . I go down to Sachuest point Middletown in most hurricane swells and when it’s really big you can see the faces breaking a bit over a half mile out at a pretty hidden spot referred to as Elbow ledge . You can see it on water depth charts very well , I believe it’s around 7 feet or so . Faces looked  15 feet by sunset that evening and peaked fast .

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14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That seems to be the benchmark for swells for SE exposed New England beaches 

Last sept 23 there was a very big swell that built fast in the late evening . I go down to Sachuest point Middletown in most hurricane swells and when it’s really big you can see the faces breaking a bit over a half mile out at a pretty hidden spot referred to as Elbow ledge . You can see it on water depth charts very well , I believe it’s around 7 feet or so . Faces looked  15 feet by sunset that evening and peaked fast .

Bottom pic is Elbow Ledge 40ft?

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1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Would just like to get some more 6 - 8 footers coming in to do some body boarding.  This past Sunday was weak sauce.  Hopefully this coming Sunday will be better.

You missed Friday morning.  4 to 6 clean smooth and tubes. Body surfed for a total of 4 hrs. So so much fun. Taught some out of state teenagers how to. They got it pretty quick.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Flood controls installed since have greatly mitigated the large floods here in NE CT

True, but BDL had 3.75" from Connie on 8/12-14 then 14.40" from Diane with only 3 days between.  Farther NW, Norfolk measured 8.54" from Connie then 12.88" from Diane.  Maybe the current system would reduce the damage, but it would still be catastrophic.

Down our way in NNJ, Connie dumped about 8" and Diane 3-4" less.  Even with that close sequence, Diane's flooding was significantly less than from Connie.

Edit:  The death toll in PA might've been greater than in CT, with the camp on Brodhead Creek being the worst calamity.

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17 minutes ago, tamarack said:

True, but BDL had 3.75" from Connie on 8/12-14 then 14.40" from Diane with only 3 days between.  Farther NW, Norfolk measured 8.54" from Connie then 12.88" from Diane.  Maybe the current system would reduce the damage, but it would still be catastrophic.

Down our way in NNJ, Connie dumped about 8" and Diane 3-4" less.  Even with that close sequence, Diane's flooding was significantly less than from Connie.

Edit:  The death toll in PA might've been greater than in CT, with the camp on Brodhead Creek being the worst calamity.

Near me the Barre Falls Dam was constructed by the US Army Corps in 1956-1958... probably due to flooding from Diane

 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully it’s right. It’s not been stellar this summer . Let’s go out with a bang from the tower shots rang out. 

It certainly has had a tough go of it this summer and not just in our region. But convection is very difficult to model really, especially when you get the setups which had occurred in the Great Plains/Tennessee Valley/Southeast where you know MCSs will develop, but pinpointing exactly where/what time initial development will occur several-plus hours out is highly difficult. 

Anyways. we've been outside the HRRR's range but it has been pretty consistent thus far - again, doesn't mean too much because we had seen that before, but if this remains consistent with the 0z run and subsequent runs overnight...that would be a very positive sign. 

Need to keep in mind too that we do not need much solar heating in this type of setup. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It certainly has had a tough go of it this summer and not just in our region. But convection is very difficult to model really, especially when you get the setups which had occurred in the Great Plains/Tennessee Valley/Southeast where you know MCSs will develop, but pinpointing exactly where/what time initial development will occur several-plus hours out is highly difficult. 

Anyways. we've been outside the HRRR's range but it has been pretty consistent thus far - again, doesn't mean too much because we had seen that before, but if this remains consistent with the 0z run and subsequent runs overnight...that would be a very positive sign. 

Need to keep in mind too that we do not need much solar heating in this type of setup. 

Let’s get the 3K and Reggie to go all in. If so.. damage will come .

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s get the 3K and Reggie to go all in. If so.. damage will come .

3km (as usual) is much less mundane but does have something rolling through. I'm starting to become more inclined to believing that the 3km is very good. IT usually is much less impressive which often verifies and when it does show something good...definitely keep a watch. 

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Near me the Barre Falls Dam was constructed by the US Army Corps in 1956-1958... probably due to flooding from Diane

 

There are 3 flood control dams in my area that were constructed following the 1927 flood.  They all held in July but it was close at the one outside Montpelier.  Wrightsville Dam

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AFAIK, no flood control infrastructure was installed after the record flood of the Kennebec in 1987; in fact, some dams within the watershed have since been removed.  However, I don't think anything could've been improved without many millions of investments.  Four days before the river hit 22.5' above flood stage in AUG, I was in a light airplane looking at possible trade opportunities near Chain-of-Ponds, and on the way home we flew around the BIgelow range.  Flagstaff, Maine's largest purely artificial lake and 4th largest overall, was drawn down about 25 feet, such that the original Dead Rive channel was plainly visible within 3 miles of the dam.  Outside of Moosehead, at which dams have added 9 feet to full pool, Flagstaff is the greatest "flood catcher" in the state and it was overwhelmed.  At peak on April 1, the Big Eddy campground a mile downriver from the dam had 3-4 feet roaring thru it.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

3km (as usual) is much less mundane but does have something rolling through. I'm starting to become more inclined to believing that the 3km is very good. IT usually is much less impressive which often verifies and when it does show something good...definitely keep a watch. 

We've been hugging it for years

Severe, winter, tropical... you name it we hug it. 

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