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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Boston discussion mentioned earlier that the main ingredient that could be missing (at this time) is instability?

Instability will virtually be a product of

1) WF placement

2) Frontal timing 

3) Cloud cover - although we'll likely have extensive cloud cover, but south of the warm front rich theta-e air will compensate quite a bit. I'd also watch for lapse rates to be a bit steeper than modeled, however, extensive clouds and precip. may yield enough latent heat to keep them from steepening.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Instability will virtually be a product of

1) WF placement

2) Frontal timing 

3) Cloud cover - although we'll likely have extensive cloud cover, but south of the warm front rich theta-e air will compensate quite a bit. I'd also watch for lapse rates to be a bit steeper than modeled, however, extensive clouds and precip. may yield enough latent heat to keep them from steepening.

Warm fronts always disappoint me (never get this far north in time) This morning and Saturday being the two latest examples but to be fair this latest one wasn’t forecasted to do so 

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2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Warm fronts always disappoint me (never get this far north in time) This morning and Saturday being the two latest examples but to be fair this latest one wasn’t forecasted to do so 

sfc low development low and tracks were unfavorable for pushing WF north. Friday would be more favorable (unless model shift southeast with sfc low).

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