August model and weather disco

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Soon the Christmas stuff starts. 

I've seen Halloween candy already.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then again recent Christmas’ feature cool July weather. 

Not in ‘22 though…was frigid both Xmas eve, Xmas day.  But ya, otherwise we’ve had a few mild Xmas holidays. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in ‘22 though…was frigid both Xmas eve, Xmas day.  But ya, otherwise we’ve had a few mild Xmas holidays. 

Of course that was after the monster cutter with torrential rains the 23’rd

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Feels like a Mid sept day 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said:

Augdüst is our second hottest month and is mid summer.  No ACATT wishcasting will change this hot hard fact. 

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

[dendrite]

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Feels like a Mid sept day 

It does...  In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74

I am at 76 at the moment.   Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm.  So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

[powderfreak]

 Now this feels more like autumn.

66/45 with NW gusting 22mph under FEW skies.  Summits struggling to get to 50F.

[MJOatleast7]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 Now this feels more like autumn.

66/45 with NW gusting 22mph under FEW skies.  Summits struggling to get to 50F.

MWN at 39F

[CoastalWx]

Nice day today.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice day today.

Discuss the pattern moving into the next few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Discuss the pattern moving into the next few weeks.

Might be a couple of COC shots next week. Not like this, but perhaps 78-85 and lower dews. Gets more humid post 8/12 or so.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be a couple of COC shots next week. Not like this, but perhaps 78-85 and lower dews. Gets more humid post 8/12 or so.

This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

We didn't have that big NW Canada ridge I don't think. But the trough retros to GL after 8/12.

[dendrite]

Probably delayed but not denied, but it's been getting pushed back.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We didn't have that big NW Canada ridge I don't think. But the trough retros to GL after 8/12.

Lol air source for us is British Columbia.  P

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Probably delayed but not denied, but it's been getting pushed back.

Yea there has been major changes in modeling handling the wave break associated with the Typhoon.  It will get HHH again but keeps pushed back with nice cool shots.  You like to see it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

Yes...around about the 10th...just like Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It does...  In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74

I am at 76 at the moment.   Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm.  So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

We have about a May 10 sun today.

[Ginx snewx]

Today is another winner. Swim get out dry in a minute. Not too hot sun. Cocadoodledewlessness 

[Go Kart Mozart]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

This will be the set-up Dec through March, right?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This will be the set-up Dec through March, right?

Just pull the blues 3000 miles west into the west coast.

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Discuss the pattern moving into the next few weeks.

12z GFS looks humid at times but also has some really nice days.. nothing hot though that I can see.. I would say it's pretty normal for this time of year

[powderfreak]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

That doesn’t look like an exact replica at all except for the fact that yes there is a trough across the north.

We had higher than normal heights over the NE and into Maritimes.  That look wouldn’t have given CAR is warmest July.

@Damage In Tolland spot the differences… we were the battle ground in July, on the gradient.  Not in the map you showed.

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS looks humid at times but also has some really nice days.. nothing hot though that I can see.. I would say it's pretty normal for this time of year

Yeah we've all been expecting a fairly normal August; some warm/dew days, and some coc shots.  No one would think otherwise.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice day today.

Ya' stunning summer day, my type of temps and dews. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That doesn’t look like an exact replica at all except for the fact that yes there is a trough across the north.

We had higher than normal heights over the NE and into Maritimes.  That look wouldn’t have given CAR is warmest July.

@Damage In Tolland spot the differences… we were the battle ground in July, on the gradient.  Not in the map you showed.

Please don't dilute the discussion with model analysis.

[snowman21]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

That's already underway. For example today's BOS normals are 82/66 compared to 82/67 a couple days ago. Last week was peak week.

[powderfreak]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Please don't dilute the discussion with model analysis.

lol, a Great Lakes trough is great and all but it’s only one part of the puzzle. If it’s elongated across New England it’s not going to do anything close to how July went… with the GL trough encountering serious resistance from ridging in the maritimes that allowed for moist/humid air to stream well north over and over.