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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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Posted this last month, it's not unusual we see max temps in mid Aug-early Sept.  Hopefully we max and max very high.

"Some high late-season numbers in the past 25 years in Boston.  all either tied or highest temps for their respective years.

98 August 29, 2018

 

96 September 08, 2015  
93 September 02, 2014  
95 August 18, 2009  
     
96 August 25, 2007   
93 August 22, 2003   
101 August 14, 2002  
     

"

I remember the 2009 heatwave, had just became a FT driver that week, a co-worker in Nashua died of heat stroke  8/18/09 ("they" installed ventilation fans a decade later) Only 55 years old.

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13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

it's been there on ensembles as well, the 20th to the 25th roughly.  We'll see what happens, I'm just saying what the model(s) shows. 

I havent looked yet but any support from Euro etc?  And where's forky with the 384 hr maps?  It ain't coming unless he's here to troll it...

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Have to think it’d be in the Hudson Valley down to NE PA. Wish we could get that look a little further east.

That's my inclination. It is interesting to note though (which Ryan mentioned earlier) is the NAM keeps it quite unstable to the river well into the overnight. Obviously nocturnal severe is extremely difficult in these parts, but that potential tends to be higher in August and we do have somewhat steep lapse rates which is a HUGE change from guidance.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's my inclination. It is interesting to note though (which Ryan mentioned earlier) is the NAM keeps it quite unstable to the river well into the overnight. Obviously nocturnal severe is extremely difficult in these parts, but that potential tends to be higher in August and we do have somewhat steep lapse rates which is a HUGE change from guidance.

Keep everything slow so Sunday we can get into the fun and everyone benefits lol 

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Looking like a wild evening and night west of a line from ORH to PVD 

Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms are likely to occur
from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The
potential exists for a few severe storms with damaging winds,
as well as for an isolated tornado. Short range models show
convection beginning in CT and western MA as early as 4 PM or as
late as 7 PM. The ECMWF is sooner...around 2-3 PM. As the night
progresses, even though heating is lost, they dynamics
increase as wind fields strengthen. By 09Z, the SREF on the SPC
website shows 50-70 percent probability of 0-6km bulk shear
greater than 40 kt across western MA and northern CT. The
`tornado ingredients` chart highlights that area as well, after
being maximized in eastern New York earlier in the evening. GFS
and ECMWF Sigtor levels reach 1-2 and 0-1km helicity is 100-200
during the overnight hours. Expect isolated to scattered strong
to severe storms across the region through the night.
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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Heard tomorrow is the last sunset at 8pm or later in Stowe until May 6th.

Sun is descending.  Hate it… absolutely love the late light and being outside until 9pm.

Down to 7:58 here. (down from 8:30)  Sunrise up to 5:59 AM (up from 5:23)   This is from my Davis weather station.

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