Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 7 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris. But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away. A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. Thanks sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 4.01" here on the day. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 4.01" here on the day. Jackers gonna Jack ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not our region, but wow. Last paragraph!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 I’d take the 3k NAM for tomorrow please. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Alright ... I'll bite. Yes there's a burgeoning heat signal between ~ the 17th and ... sometime out there after the 20th. Multi telecon index behavior in the projections are converging. A modest +EPO collapsing toward neutral, which precedes the -PNA mode ... While this is going on, the recent GLAMM trends suggest the mode of that is attempting to go (or go more...) positive. Now ... GLAMM is not a modeled state; this is an extrapolation based upon trend/behavior. This is the time of the year for such a trend to work ...so, we'll see. This latter aspect adds confidence, because that being positive is really like the scalar measure of the subtropical ridged circulation mode. So... although telecon correlations become a little less useful in the summer season, these are super-synoptic forcing signature that are tougher to ignore. (I also love the utter suppression of the MJO as it's trying desperately to emerge out of the RMM in phase 8, yet both hemispheres are sitting on it like a playground bully ... but I'm not sure if that has any meaning to this beyond my taking Schadenfreude in watching the El Nino squirm.. lol) What all that ^ means is that we should see at least a temporary ( how long remains to be seen) relaxation of this weird summer version of a polar jet. It's been unusually coherent, odd season for that behavior... We typically see the hemisphere evolve toward the lower frequency base-state, yet these defined R-waves definitive jets have persistence. It's also interesting that all these insane heat aspects have been observed S of 40 N ( for everywhere in the world except the eastern seaboard of N/A) .. It doesn't hurt that the distantly framed guidance actually show it some, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 12 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 2 confirmed tornadoes in SE Mass today. Second one was EF-0 at Marston Mills Not far from where I am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Ray is gonna regress now just in time for winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris. But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away. A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. Yep. Wasn’t jumping the gun, but all those did show it nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Some models are pretty far south with tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some models are pretty far south with tomorrow night. Euro in particular looks like a whiff. GFS middle ground? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro in particular looks like a whiff. GFS middle ground? Usually the southern solutions make more sense. Will depend on tstm complex evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Going to be some severe event in the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley today. That's some wild dynamics and stout EML above a very hot and humid airmass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris. But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away. A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. Great post. Depending on the azimuthal sampling volume, a function of the distance from the radar, you might well be averaging in potentially high ZDR oblate raindrops along with the debris. So you would expect a ZDR drop relative to the surrounding regions of the thunderstorm, especially the FFD but maybe also within the RFD, but maybe not getting near zero. Even legit hail cores in the northeast I think are pretty often contaminated by rain and ZDR stays higher compared with hail storms you might see on the high plains or something. Probably if you had a high LCL tornado classically formed on the tail end of an RFD and away from the rain shield you would indeed see ZDRs of 0 however so the theory is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some models are pretty far south with tomorrow night. LI Express on the 12K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 12 hours ago, FXWX said: While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August??? Not really screaming torch? I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above. What's that weird spot west from BGR? Somebody's thermometer next to the exhaust of their heat pump motor? August 1-8 is 4.5° BN here. Storm total was 3.51", second only to Irene (4.41") for August downpours, 1998 on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Some models are pretty far south with tomorrow night. Some are pretty far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Some are pretty far north Go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 NOAA has confirmed July 2023 was the hottest month on record for New England, with a mean temperature of 71.0F - an incredible 4.4F above the 20th century mean. Compounding the intense heat, dewpoints were also at record levels for the month, resulting in an amplified increase to the apparent temperature. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Go south. It looks south and hope it stays. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: It looks south and hope it stays. 12Z NAM is way north now...LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 That is some bow the 3km NAM has tonight going into northwest Tennessee. Holy bowie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 She coming hard hot n heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: No nickers gonna Jack ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Bullseye was actually about 5-7"mi south of me...through KLWM and N Andover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Tomorrow is going to be quite interesting. Biggest challenge is going to be where that sfc low develops and tracks which is going to be heavily influenced by the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley convection. I would think the most favorable track for this would be just south of southern New England, but is it across Long Island or just south of Long Island? In terms of any severe weather potential, this track is key because if the track is across Long Island, the true warm sector and triple point will likely scoot across southern Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. There would be potential for some brief tornadoes. If the track is south of Long Island, severe potential is nada (except maybe Nantucket and the Vineyard). Regardless, I think we're in line for some flash flooding rainfall. upper-level dynamics are pretty strong and we look to be in a very favored position for enhanced upper-level divergence. Looks like H7 warm front pushes well into the region which will aid in lift as well. In addition, we'll have the nose of a strong low-level jet and a very moist airmass. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ray is gonna regress now just in time for winter. Through June and first half of July I was ground zero...then it split N and S of me for a few weeks, but now jack is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 We want NAM. We NEED NAM. Big rains/Big storms or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 12z 3k nam is another 5-6" for NE MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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