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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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19 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August???  Not really screaming torch?  I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.

 

7dTDeptNRCC.png

Let’s revisit this on Augdewst 25th 

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bingo. Major difference is that in July, the trough was stable and never actually made it to us.  So it was every single day of dews and rain.  Just a perpetual SW flow aloft and SSE flow low levels.

This month the upper level trough is actually progressing so it gives us the breaks and the flow actually does go NW at times.

Of course, basic meteorology is ahead of a trough there will be moisture and warmth pumped up ahead of it… so whenever these features move in we will get days that are like July (rain and moisture). We get those days every month of the year to some extent, even December too. The classic push of warmer moist air ahead of a trough/system.

But then it actually gets here and the flow dries, whereas in July it was stalled for like a month straight.  The trough never progressed over us.

Sure, ahead of every trough until Christmas the temporary pattern is like July… gets humid and rains. But unlike July, we’ll get some of the drier NW flow days behind it.  The whole thing is moved eastward from July.

 

Makes sense why you didn’t answer texts and avoided when I reached out to grab a beer this past winter . You ignored until I was gone.. then replied 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Makes sense why you didn’t answer texts and avoided when I reached out to grab a beer this past winter . 

lol every time we disagree. Sorry, winter’s a busy time of year. Gave you some good Waterbury recommendations. 

To be fair to both sides, there will be days when both are correct.  Ahead of any front, it’ll get dewy and rain.  And the upper level jet structure and dynamics continue to be strong so it’ll rain a lot at times.

But compared to July, the FROPAs will actually move through occasionally. July they never did, it was like a month-long stalled boundary to our west.

I don’t think it’s completely correct or am I calling for it, but the NAM shows what I’m trying to articulate:

Today, dewy rains.

1F512B16-F6D5-402C-96DA-2A6981AD43AB.thumb.png.4e4690a405c027bec2a5820ec3c14ab2.png

Tomorrow, NW flow and drier.

FD983771-C8DF-4A71-A3B4-040119FC5B67.thumb.png.a8a17124535d331ce9fb571890f1ec43.png

Then another system moves in with dewy rains..

A8635416-C80D-4F55-B66D-976798D0CB89.thumb.png.9de50bebc708682a143c5240ba9c41d5.png

But the FROPA moves through behind it and drier WNW flow again.

73DB29BE-DCCF-4527-8C65-E3846450A401.thumb.png.6ac15e8a77cd482a22acec0b72e4532d.png


July’s pattern did not feature those FROPAs and flow never really went deep layer NW behind rainers.  July was just a constant feed of moisture and dews with fronts washing out.  The long wave trough was further west.

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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hook set, Fish on...........:)

He'll be fine with the upcoming pattern.

"During very hot conditions, especially if the air is humid, your donkey may have trouble controlling their body temperature. An extreme build-up of heat in their body can disrupt normal bodily functions. Left untreated, this may lead to organ failure and death.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s revisit this on Augdewst 25th 

Come on Kev... I'm not saying, nor is anyone else I think, that an extended period of tropical humidity will not overwhelm at least SNE during the second half of August, it might well.  But you seem to be indicating the July pattern featuring an incredibly long stretch of high dew pt air mass has continued into early August.  It clearly has not.  Now there have been model hints of a stronger Bermuda high evolution as we move deeper into August, but those hints have not yet verified nor has the signal gained stronger support.  I would tread carefully until we see the persistent Northeast trough relax or retrograde further west, along with a western expansion of the west ATL ridge.  It may well happen down the road, but certainly not a lock.  

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Summer's back is broken.  Have only used occasional AC the past 2 weeks.   Yeah, it will be swampy again but this was not a summer of record heat and won't be with regards to high temperatures.  

Don't get me wrong, I thoroughly enjoy summer and warm weather but it has been a wet humid mess and the only thing impressive have been the rainfall totals.  I'm really hoping for a warm, dry, Sept/Oct.

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am not knowledgeable on this but is this CC OFFICIANT showing debris @OceanStWx

KBOX - Super-Res Correlation Coefficient 1, 11_26 AM.gif

I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris.

But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). 

Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away.

A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. 

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Could be worse.

 

@NWSB

Here is the outlook for the week ahead. Best days are today, Fri., and late Sun. into early Mon. Most unsettled weather is on Thu. night, Sat. night, and Mon. night. Some potential for an isolated tornado in far southeast MA Thu. night and for strong/severe storms Sat. night

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