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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam probably overdone, but it will be a strong low for the time of year 

Nice to have the trough to spin these Synoptics up.  Feel like we’ve had better jet structures and upper dynamics than some cold seasons so far this summer.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam probably overdone, but it will be a strong low for the time of year 

At this point, as big heat looks more and more off the table, I just want interesting. Big rains or big storms. Make this a summer of yore in the storms department. 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How is this in any way mirroring July so far?  July was like a record warm month all-time (top 5 most spots). 

Almost every site will be below normal through the first 10 days (33%) of this month.

Weed and beer combo on that.

 

Lower dews tomorrow before going up and then back down later Friday into Saturday.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolutely amazing how the pattern mirroring Julorch this month. Rains and dews .. one day in between that gets a tiny bit lower dews and then boom right back at it. Love it . We wettie we dewey. Dewey defeats COC k

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August???  Not really screaming torch?  I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.

 

7dTDeptNRCC.png

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5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August???  Not really screaming torch?  I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.

 

7dTDeptNRCC.png

He’s a contrarian indicator 

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11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Lower dews tomorrow before going up and then back down later Friday into Saturday.

Bingo. Major difference is that in July, the trough was stable and never actually made it to us.  So it was every single day of dews and rain.  Just a perpetual SW flow aloft and SSE flow low levels.

This month the upper level trough is actually progressing so it gives us the breaks and the flow actually does go NW at times.

Of course, basic meteorology is ahead of a trough there will be moisture and warmth pumped up ahead of it… so whenever these features move in we will get days that are like July (rain and moisture). We get those days every month of the year to some extent, even December too. The classic push of warmer moist air ahead of a trough/system.

But then it actually gets here and the flow dries, whereas in July it was stalled for like a month straight.  The trough never progressed over us.

Sure, ahead of every trough until Christmas the temporary pattern is like July… gets humid and rains. But unlike July, we’ll get some of the drier NW flow days behind it.  The whole thing is moved eastward from July.

 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How is this in any way mirroring July so far?  July was like a record warm month all-time (top 5 most spots). 

Almost every site will be below normal through the first 10 days (33%) of this month.

Weed and beer combo on that.

 

 

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He’s a contrarian indicator 

Otherwise known as a donkey.

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