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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm   yeah but, these are touching down and snapping off tree tops and breaking windows here and there.   ...tearing siding off boat houses too... 

they're on the weak side, but I don't know if dual-pol is helping them actually touch down, just the same.

Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. 

This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November

I did a presentation on that event at the TriState Weather Conference at Western Connecticut State University last October. 

One theory discussed too (I think it was Nick Gregory and I briefly discussed) was how dews may have spiked  even more just out ahead of the main storms traversing Long Island and how rapidly rising dews can lead to vastly lowering LCLs and a surge of instability and that could have enhanced tornadogenesis with this stuff on Long Island.

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34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. 

As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding.  The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player.  Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come.  And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time???

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2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding.  The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player.  Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come.  And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time???

Agreed on all this 100% 

IMO too they require much more attention in terms of forecasting. Remember the fall events of 2018? A few of those went completely under the radar. These setups typically are driven by large 3km CAPE with the high shear/strong shortwaves. So if you're just looking at the general SBCAPE or even MLCAPE you'll completely miss the potential. 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on all this 100% 

IMO too they require much more attention in terms of forecasting. Remember the fall events of 2018? A few of those went completely under the radar. These setups typically are driven by large 3km CAPE with the high shear/strong shortwaves. So if you're just looking at the general SBCAPE or even MLCAPE you'll completely miss the potential. 

Yes sir!  Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events.  Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago..

 

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1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Yes sir!  Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events.  Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago..

 

With our past experiences with these events they've become much easy to sniff out! 

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4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just got out of work in Wilmington on Ballardvale ST…. Water literally pouring off the small hillsides along the road. Flooding everywhere 

Absolutely destroyed.  Like you're saying, water is pouring down the hillsides here.  Main roads still ponded/flooded in spots

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