weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm yeah but, these are touching down and snapping off tree tops and breaking windows here and there. ...tearing siding off boat houses too... they're on the weak side, but I don't know if dual-pol is helping them actually touch down, just the same. Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November I did a presentation on that event at the TriState Weather Conference at Western Connecticut State University last October. One theory discussed too (I think it was Nick Gregory and I briefly discussed) was how dews may have spiked even more just out ahead of the main storms traversing Long Island and how rapidly rising dews can lead to vastly lowering LCLs and a surge of instability and that could have enhanced tornadogenesis with this stuff on Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Well about an hour ago there was a heavy cell, which appeared to cover maybe ten streets in the neighborhood , gave a quick 1.10"in about 20-25 minutes, so far total on 1.21" on my home Davis. Sun out now, 77/79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3.83" here, More then enough, That pump i placed in the garden has paid dividends. Approaching 3.5". We'll get closer to 4" than I'd guessed, though I still don't think we reach it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Like Ryan said, warming SST's a few degrees is a big deal in these setups, especially the late summer/fall setups. We've had some pretty impressive fall events over the past several years where the warm SSTs helped build late spring/early summer instability under fall like dynamics. As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding. The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player. Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come. And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 More storms forming in E MA. Maybe time for a second Cape tornado on the day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Looks like some ocnl troughing in the extended. Summer pattern, but nothing crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, FXWX said: As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding. The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player. Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come. And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time??? Agreed on all this 100% IMO too they require much more attention in terms of forecasting. Remember the fall events of 2018? A few of those went completely under the radar. These setups typically are driven by large 3km CAPE with the high shear/strong shortwaves. So if you're just looking at the general SBCAPE or even MLCAPE you'll completely miss the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, tamarack said: Approaching 3.5". We'll get closer to 4" than I'd guessed, though I still don't think we reach it. I'm not seeing much more right now to get us to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed on all this 100% IMO too they require much more attention in terms of forecasting. Remember the fall events of 2018? A few of those went completely under the radar. These setups typically are driven by large 3km CAPE with the high shear/strong shortwaves. So if you're just looking at the general SBCAPE or even MLCAPE you'll completely miss the potential. Yes sir! Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events. Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 1 minute ago, FXWX said: Yes sir! Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events. Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago.. With our past experiences with these events they've become much easy to sniff out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 6.16" here while I was gone. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Just got out of work in Wilmington on Ballardvale ST…. Water literally pouring off the small hillsides along the road. Flooding everywhere Absolutely destroyed. Like you're saying, water is pouring down the hillsides here. Main roads still ponded/flooded in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 EF-1 tornado confirmed https://www.weather.gov/media/box/Public_Information_Statement.pdf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Absolutely destroyed. Like you're saying, water is pouring down the hillsides here. Main roads still ponded/flooded in spots Ray Jack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Sharp cutoff between Billerica and Westford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray Jack! He doesn't hit jackpot numbers very often there so hopefully he got crushed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Thursday looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Just now, Torch Tiger said: He doesn't hit jackpot numbers very often there so hopefully he got crushed! His mom’s place in Wilmington did. He missed out on the hydro KU. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray Jack! Hopefully he can stop complaining for a few years now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 39 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 6.16" here while I was gone. Gotta be close to a jack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Methuen isn’t really near Wilmington or that highest stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 6.16" here while I was gone. That’s nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 Meanwhile just 0.12” here. Most of that was early this morning. I def don’t need any more rain for a bit. The mosquitoes are already insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 4.44" might dew it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ray Jack! With no FFW to boot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Methuen isn’t really near Wilmington or that highest stripe It's only 4-5 mi. from LWM, even less if you measure border to border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's only 4-5 mi. from LWM, even less if you measure border to border. Thin jack stripe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thursday looking interesting. Tors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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