powderfreak Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Yeah we keep kicking the can back. Troughing in summer, ridging in winter. Mother Nature can be cruel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: We always just miss out Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 071218Z - 071415Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day 1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia, southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023 They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Troughing in summer, ridging in winter. Mother Nature can be cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Ya the return of the warmth has been greatly exaggerated.. it’s pretty much been 77–83 everyday since summers back broke .. with the occasional bout of moderate humidity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC It's a pretty robust setup down that way. Very steep lapse rates all around (mid-level, low-level, and 2-6km) with an unseasonably strong H3 jet streak. If there was much stronger sfc heating and higher CAPE this could have been a borderline high risk IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's a pretty robust setup down that way. Very steep lapse rates all around (mid-level, low-level, and 2-6km) with an unseasonably strong H3 jet streak. If there was much stronger sfc heating and higher CAPE this could have been a borderline high risk IMO. Meanwhile, we’ll whine about temps and dews. I’m such a weenie. I literally went on a 5,000 mile storm chase a month ago and had two FF events imby and I want more. I’m ill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Looks like a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. It has been a very good summer. Aside from the rain, maybe nothing high end, but it has been active, which I’d prefer over one interesting day and boring all the rest (unless it’s tropical) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 SE Mass rain shield in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SE Mass rain shield in full effect Wasn’t supposed to get anything today really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: SE Mass rain shield in full effect Extends into RI and E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 .53” on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. Coupled with 68-78 dews daily. That’s all that’s important and needed. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of mid 70s to maybe low 80s stuff going forward in the ORH hills. Just a boring summer. FYP 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Would love to get a slug of hot temps for a few days in the next couple of weeks. (like 88-94) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Nice to get some dew days! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. Maybe Slowly backing down on temps . Mid 80’s is a happy medium . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: We always just miss out Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 071218Z - 071415Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day 1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia, southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023 Just? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Just? It's less painful thinking it's closer than it really is 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 When do the mid to upper 80’s w upper 60’s+ dews begin? And where is it still August 12’th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 hours ago, dendrite said: Yeah we keep kicking the can back. Oh, I'm sure all these charts will fail and it'll go ahead and finally materialize now that we've caught it in the act. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 68° here at 1pm with drizzle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 68° here at 1pm with drizzle lol 68F dew Hopefully you can tolerate the oppressiveness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 It's a scorcher up here too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 hours ago, dendrite said: That's valid 00z. Most models soak you tomorrow. They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here. Euro and mesos were wet there at the time of my post. 12z HRRR was a lot drier down there though. It's nice of you to wait for the worst 2 global models for convective QPF to run before replying. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 73 and cloudy in KBED , feels great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here. What will come first ..big rains to Taunton or high heat indexes or neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro and mesos were wet there at the time of my post. 12z HRRR was a lot drier down there though. It's nice of you to wait for the worst 2 global models for convective QPF to run before replying. lol . I mean, the cmc and gfs both have been dry for several runs. 12z today are the driest runs yet. The euro has been the wettest to this point, so we’ll see what it spits out in a bit. I am concerned it plays out a lot like today. Just vanished as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Sun peeking out now after getting over an inch this morning, temp hanging around 71⁰ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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