August model and weather disco

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we keep kicking the can back.

 

Troughing in summer, ridging in winter. Mother Nature can be cruel.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We always just miss out

 Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 071218Z - 071415Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day
   1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast
   Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia,
   southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
   Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above
   65 knots possible.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system
   becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late
   morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level
   system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a
   few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to
   take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly
   eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread
   damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall
   line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC  

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Troughing in summer, ridging in winter. Mother Nature can be cruel.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Ya the return of the warmth has been greatly exaggerated.. it’s pretty much been 77–83 everyday since summers back broke .. with the occasional bout of moderate humidity. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They actually have to produce but man what a day it could be down there. I was just in DC  

It's a pretty robust setup down that way. Very steep lapse rates all around (mid-level, low-level, and 2-6km) with an unseasonably strong H3 jet streak. If there was much stronger sfc heating and higher CAPE this could have been a borderline high risk IMO. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's a pretty robust setup down that way. Very steep lapse rates all around (mid-level, low-level, and 2-6km) with an unseasonably strong H3 jet streak. If there was much stronger sfc heating and higher CAPE this could have been a borderline high risk IMO. 

Meanwhile, we’ll whine about temps and dews. I’m such a weenie. I literally went on a 5,000 mile storm chase a month ago and had two FF events imby and I want more.

I’m ill.  

[CoastalWx]

Looks like  a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like  a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. 

It has been a very good summer. Aside from the rain, maybe nothing high end, but it has been active, which I’d prefer over one interesting day and boring all the rest (unless it’s tropical)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

SE Mass rain shield in full effect 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

SE Mass rain shield in full effect 

Wasn’t supposed to get anything today really 

[Modfan2]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

SE Mass rain shield in full effect 

Extends into RI and E CT

[WxWatcher007]

.53” on the day 

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like  a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. 

Coupled with 68-78 dews daily. That’s all that’s important and needed. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like  a lot of mid 70s to maybe low 80s stuff going forward in the ORH hills. Just a boring summer. 

FYP

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would love to get a slug of hot temps for a few days in the next couple of weeks.

(like 88-94)    

[Torch Tiger]

Nice to get some dew days!

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like  a lot of mid to Upper 80s stuff going forward. Just good solid summer. 

Maybe Slowly backing down on temps . Mid 80’s is a happy medium . 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

We always just miss out

 Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 071218Z - 071415Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day
   1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast
   Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia,
   southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
   Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above
   65 knots possible.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system
   becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late
   morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level
   system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a
   few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to
   take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly
   eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread
   damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall
   line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

Just?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just?

It's less painful thinking it's closer than it really is

[STILL N OF PIKE]

When do the mid to upper 80’s w upper 60’s+ dews begin? And where 

is it still August 12’th

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we keep kicking the can back.

 

Oh, I'm sure all these charts will fail and it'll go ahead and finally materialize now that we've caught it in the act. Lol

[WxWatcher007]

68° here at 1pm with drizzle lol

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

68° here at 1pm with drizzle lol

68F dew

Hopefully you can tolerate the oppressiveness

[dendrite]

It's a scorcher up here too

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

That's valid 00z. Most models soak you tomorrow.

They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here.

Euro and mesos were wet there at the time of my post. 12z HRRR was a lot drier down there though. It's nice of you to wait for the worst 2 global models for convective QPF to run before replying. lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

73 and cloudy in KBED , feels great 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

They do? 12z gfs and cmc both look like about a quarter of an inch at most here.

What will come first ..big  rains to Taunton or high heat indexes or neither 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro and mesos were wet there at the time of my post. 12z HRRR was a lot drier down there though. It's nice of you to wait for the worst 2 global models for convective QPF to run before replying. lol

. I mean, the cmc and gfs both have been dry for several runs. 12z today are the driest runs yet.

The euro has been the wettest to this point, so we’ll see what it spits out in a bit.

I am concerned it plays out a lot like today. Just vanished as it moves east.

[Spanks45]

Sun peeking out now after getting over an inch this morning, temp hanging around 71⁰