Spanks45 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Nice soaking rain this morning, 0.25 inch so far.... 66⁰ Kind of dry around here recently, around an inch since the 20th so this was needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 39 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 54F. I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV). Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s. The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer. ...and yet the advertised ridging never has... I don't see any compelling reason why any kind of DP this or heat that is likelier than just having the extended range guidance continue to correct right back to this pot hole in the flow over eastern N/A - whence aging those time ranges into nearer intervals. We'll see - I'm not predicting failure here... I'm just sort of taking the persistence road for the time being. Because we've seen pattern changes, big DPs, be it ridging delivering higher heat after D10, for the last 20 days ... Yet as of this morning it is still after D10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 15 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Went to the beach in York, water temp today 58 degrees. The high-60s water must have gotten mixed by recent storms. Long ago when I lived in NNJ, we visited Sandy Hook in late July when water temps back then were usually 70-75 but a storm 1-2 days earlier led to 57° swimming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Hey Brett 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 54F. I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV). Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s. The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer. This morning's 49° was the 5th sub-50 minima this month, after 38 straight 50+ mornings. Peak summer temps (on average) end on Friday, when the average temp drops below 65. The AN July has increased the stretch of 65+ mean temps to 33 days, 7/9 thru 8/10. The mean currently slips a fraction below 60 on Sept 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, tamarack said: The high-60s water must have gotten mixed by recent storms. Long ago when I lived in NNJ, we visited Sandy Hook in late July when water temps back then were usually 70-75 but a storm 1-2 days earlier led to 57° swimming. While not at the latitude of York Beach, I was at Jennes Beach/Rye NH two weekends ago, and the water was 72. As we bounced around in the surf, ever so occasionally a waft of chillier water would graze your feet, indicative no doubt of the thin nature of the surface warmth. We had just spent some three or more weeks with persistent SSW to SSE surface wind exchanges. I knew when that cold front a week ago Friday came through, it was the first one to successfully unseat the DP rich air... And instead of the winds going torpid ...only to resume a S/SSW motion later the next afternoon, that warm SST N of Cape Ann was going to be no match for three days of light NW flow and DPs crashing from 74 to 50. By early last week it was already low to mid 60s near shore buoys. Bye-bye warm water. On an indirectly related not... That entire Labrador marine heat wave event that occurred this late spring and early summer was most likely more about an atmospheric anomaly that persisted these SSE trades from the M/A all the way up to NF ...doing so for an extended period of time. Speculation - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...and yet the advertised ridging never has... Yeah we keep kicking the can back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 We'll probably finally get our ridging come January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 We always just miss out Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 071218Z - 071415Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day 1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia, southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hey Brett We knew 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We always just miss out Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 071218Z - 071415Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day 1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia, southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023 Maybe a little something for us tomorrow? Not expecting even an enhanced risk obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Maybe a little something for us tomorrow? Not expecting even an enhanced risk obviously. I don't know if we will see much develop during the day tomorrow. Probably extremely isolated, if anything. Any shot probably comes overnight into early morning. Pretty strong dynamics and shortwave energy overnight so rain could be a bit more widespread than models are showing. I mean that is a pretty potent LLJ moving into the region tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Most models .25 or less through tomorrow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 What a tease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We knew That's valid 00z. Most models soak you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 39 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah we keep kicking the can back. A few short days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's valid 00z. Most models soak you tomorrow. He did not know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 It’s not high heat.. never was .. it’s just weeks and weeks straight of high dews and stormy pattern. Just like Julorch trough over GL locked in . It’s all playing out exactly as we called for. They just denied it was coming 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: 54F. I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV). Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s. The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer. Been a rough couple weeks for the Dew crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Been a steady rain here for at least 90 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Been a rough couple weeks for the Dew crowd. It really didn't dew much the last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Is there a reason this radar link is 7hrs behind as I noticed this occuring a couple weeks ago: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: It really didn't dew much the last two weeks. Dewsappointing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Dewsappointing For a very select few it was, For the rest of the normal folks, It was dewsgusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Seems like any potential for a strong or severe storm tomorrow is like 6 AM - 12 PM and probably moreso eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Mass. Should see a widespread 1-2'' of rain tomorrow within this outline area as well and probably some narrow strips of 3-4''. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 HRRR nailed this heavy rain refiring behind the main line earlier. Widespread 1-2” in SWCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Dewsappointing There were a few drier days but the dews came right back . And we have one day this week where they lower a bit on Wednesday and after that it’s 60’s and 70’s dews foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Seems like any potential for a strong or severe storm tomorrow is like 6 AM - 12 PM and probably moreso eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Mass. Should see a widespread 1-2'' of rain tomorrow within this outline area as well and probably some narrow strips of 3-4''. Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak. Agreed on that. Just a matter of how everything sustains and where greatest coverage of convection tracks. The 3km NAM is actually pretty impressive. I have very mixed feelings when it comes to the 3km but when it seems to hint at a more aggressive scenario it tends to be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There were a few drier days but the dews came right back . And we have one day this week where they lower a bit on Wednesday and after that it’s 60’s and 70’s dews foreseeable future They've been meh, but they'll be back even if delayed. You're not getting your wall to wall 60+ dews through mid Sep though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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