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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

54F.

I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV).

Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s.

The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer.

...and yet the advertised ridging never has...

I don't see any compelling reason why any kind of DP this or heat that is likelier than just having the extended range guidance continue to correct right back to this pot hole in the flow over eastern N/A - whence aging those time ranges into nearer intervals.

We'll see - I'm not predicting failure here... I'm just sort of taking the persistence road for the time being. Because we've seen pattern changes, big DPs, be it ridging delivering higher heat after D10, for the last 20 days ... Yet as of this morning it is still after D10. 

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15 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Went to the beach in York, water temp today 58 degrees.

The high-60s water must have gotten mixed by recent storms.  Long ago when I lived in NNJ, we visited Sandy Hook in late July when water temps back then were usually 70-75 but a storm 1-2 days earlier led to 57° swimming.

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33 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

54F.

I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV).

Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s.

The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer.

This morning's 49° was the 5th sub-50 minima this month, after 38 straight 50+ mornings.  Peak summer temps (on average) end on Friday, when the average temp drops below 65.  The AN July has increased the stretch of 65+ mean temps to 33 days, 7/9 thru 8/10.  The mean currently slips a fraction below 60 on Sept 5.

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14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The high-60s water must have gotten mixed by recent storms.  Long ago when I lived in NNJ, we visited Sandy Hook in late July when water temps back then were usually 70-75 but a storm 1-2 days earlier led to 57° swimming.

While not at the latitude of York Beach, I was at Jennes Beach/Rye NH two weekends ago, and the water was 72.  As we bounced around in the surf, ever so occasionally a waft of chillier water would graze your feet, indicative no doubt of the thin nature of the surface warmth.  We had just spent some three or more weeks with persistent SSW to SSE surface wind exchanges.  I knew when that cold front a week ago Friday came through, it was the first one to successfully unseat the DP rich air... And instead of the winds going torpid ...only to resume a S/SSW motion later the next afternoon, that warm SST N of Cape Ann was going to be no match for three days of light NW flow and DPs crashing from 74 to 50.  By early last week it was already low to mid 60s near shore buoys.

Bye-bye warm water.  

On an indirectly related not... That entire Labrador marine heat wave event that occurred this late spring and early summer was most likely more about an atmospheric anomaly that persisted these SSE trades from the M/A all the way up to NF ...doing so for an extended period of time.  Speculation -

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We always just miss out :cry:

MD 1876 graphic

 Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 071218Z - 071415Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day
   1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast
   Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia,
   southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
   Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above
   65 knots possible.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system
   becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late
   morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level
   system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a
   few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to
   take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly
   eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread
   damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall
   line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023
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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We always just miss out :cry:

MD 1876 graphic

 Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 071218Z - 071415Z

   SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day
   1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast
   Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia,
   southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.
   Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above
   65 knots possible.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system
   becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late
   morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level
   system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a
   few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to
   take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly
   eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread
   damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall
   line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

Maybe a little something for us tomorrow? Not expecting even an enhanced risk obviously. 

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4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Maybe a little something for us tomorrow? Not expecting even an enhanced risk obviously. 

I don't know if we will see much develop during the day tomorrow. Probably extremely isolated, if anything. Any shot probably comes overnight into early morning. 

Pretty strong dynamics and shortwave energy overnight so rain could be a bit more widespread than models are showing. I mean that is a pretty potent LLJ moving into the region tonight. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

54F.

I’m sure the summer steam bath is coming back hard, but yesterday was our 9th straight day of below normal departures (MVL and BTV).

Last time the temperature hit 80F was 10 days ago, lows in the 40s and 50s.

The well-advertised troughing seemed to actually come through for a 10-day stretch in mid-summer.

Been a rough couple weeks for the Dew crowd. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Seems like any potential for a strong or severe storm tomorrow is like 6 AM - 12 PM and probably moreso eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Mass. Should see a widespread 1-2'' of rain tomorrow within this outline area as well and probably some narrow strips of 3-4''. 

Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak. 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Seems to me like the environment is pretty favorable along the warm front all the way back into NJ/NYC and coming northeast from there through daybreak. 

Agreed on that. Just a matter of how everything sustains and where greatest coverage of convection tracks. The 3km NAM is actually pretty impressive. I have very mixed feelings when it comes to the 3km but when it seems to hint at a more aggressive scenario it tends to be onto something. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There were a few drier days but the dews came right back . And we have one day this week where they lower a bit on Wednesday and after that it’s 60’s and 70’s dews foreseeable  future 

They've been meh, but they'll be back even if delayed. You're not getting your wall to wall 60+ dews through mid Sep though.

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