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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Luckily too setups like today aren't highly dependent on sfc heating and large CAPE. 

850 temps today are around like +12C and 925mb temps like +16C? So with this we were always limited into how warm the surface could get today anyways. 

Mid 70's temps with near mid 60's dews under 6.5 C/KM 700-500 lapse rates is more than enough to provide enough instability to fuel thunderstorms. 

30-35 knots of 6km shear with effective bulk shear magnitudes 30-35 knots is more than sufficient for updraft organization. 

Nothing obviously screaming widespread severe weather but this is more than sufficient for some scattered severe reports. 

Heh ...was just reading that watch text.  Man, can you imagine if Tolland got 70 mph winds and 1.5" d hail?

we'd never hear the end of it, exaggeration that would live on in infamy

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Close call for Amtrak in VT last night:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI24

 

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According to Laura Harbert Allen, a West Virginia journalist, three of her family members were evacuated Thursday night from a northbound Amtrak train between Rutland and Middlebury. Some train cars were flooded with multiple feet of water, she said. Passengers were eventually removed from the train at a road crossing near Leicester and Whiting and bused to their destinations. 

Bradley Holt, who was on board Amtrak’s Ethan Allen Express, wrote on LinkedIn that he was in the front car when the train hit a washout just south of Middlebury. 

“Fortunately we were going slowly due to concerns about water on the tracks,” he wrote. “I don’t know if we derailed or not, but it seemed like we may have based on what I felt and saw.”

...

Jen Flanagan, an Amtrak spokesperson, wrote in an email Friday morning, “Due to heavy rainfall and a flash flood warning in effect yesterday evening, customers traveling on Train 291 were provided with alternate bus transportation to their final destinations from Leicester, Vermont.”

Flanagan said the train was running normally again Friday and had left Burlington around 10 a.m. 

 

 
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1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

How do we look in SNE later? Looking earlier best appeared to be NW CT to ORH to NW Ma

Best chance for anything really is going to be western Mass and northwest CT and then across southern VT/NH and maybe into northeast MA. HRRR has really backed off the last several runs. 

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