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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Had about a half inch in the Stratus on my way out at 9am.  Just the summer of soaking rains, haven’t watered the garden yet I don’t think… maybe early on in May?

.69 here since yesterday.  There seems to have been more thunder this year than I have ever heard.  If it rains, its a thunderstorm.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Big day. Morning severe (tree hit by lightning across street from me) and my wife at Northeastern University recording quarters raining down in the late day severe. 

Half dollars at our old condo. Had my wife (then girlfriend) running around the deck to find the largest stone because I was at work.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Half dollars at our old condo. Had my wife (then girlfriend) running around the deck to find the largest stone because I was at work.

Yeah I was impressed by the hail in downtown BOS. That was the last morning/aftn severe day I can recall. I think we had some sort of EML in place too?

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was impressed by the hail in downtown BOS. That was the last morning/aftn severe day I can recall. I think we had some sort of EML in place too?

I imagine some non-standard layer had 7+ lapse rates, but our 17z sounding had 6.5 from 700-500. Huge CAPE (2500) for around here, and 50 knots shear.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gunk failure

Despite the cloud we're actually destabilizing fairly well thanks to the steep lapse rates and increasing dewpoints. Hell, 2-6km lapse rates are 7-7.5 C/KM which I think is about as good as any setup we have had this summer. I don't think we'll see much in the way of breaks though. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Despite the cloud we're actually destabilizing fairly well thanks to the steep lapse rates and increasing dewpoints. Hell, 2-6km lapse rates are 7-7.5 C/KM which I think is about as good as any setup we have had this summer. I don't think we'll see much in the way of breaks though. 

It's certainly true that deltas can offset the CAPE starvation

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's certainly true that deltas can offset the CAPE starvation

Luckily too setups like today aren't highly dependent on sfc heating and large CAPE. 

850 temps today are around like +12C and 925mb temps like +16C? So with this we were always limited into how warm the surface could get today anyways. 

Mid 70's temps with near mid 60's dews under 6.5 C/KM 700-500 lapse rates is more than enough to provide enough instability to fuel thunderstorms. 

30-35 knots of 6km shear with effective bulk shear magnitudes 30-35 knots is more than sufficient for updraft organization. 

Nothing obviously screaming widespread severe weather but this is more than sufficient for some scattered severe reports. 

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