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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

After a bit of a break this weekend and again mid-week...we are soaring into a high dewpoint pattern. Can look at and fantasize over pretty blues on H5 charts all you want but the glaring trend the past several days is...good luck getting fronts to blow through at the sfc during the second half of the month. Enjoy weakening fronts.  

Yeah ... it looks like no sooner did I suggest we may get that under the belly style warm delivery - as opposed to WAR, which I still have reservations about that ... - and the next day, some of these runs are doing just that. 

We had some heat during July. It just wasn't 'big,' nor was it as noticeable as a metric because it was tied up in a (?) historic DP run.   But there were days 87 .. 89  with DP of 75 here in Ayer, despite being completely controlled by a trough.   This 12z Euro run looks like it's just returning to that same game -

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Addison County in central Vermont...
  Western Washington County in central Vermont...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 625 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Weybridge,
  moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
           damage to trees and powerlines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Middlebury, Cornwall, Weybridge, Hancock, Ripton, Bridport,
  Lincoln, Bristol, New Haven, Addison, Salisbury, Granville, Warren,
  East Middlebury, South Lincoln, New Haven Mills, West Lincoln,
  Hollands Pasture Island, Bread Loaf, and Brooksville.
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Insane. Another cell right behind it.

Yeah radar just updated and every new scan is like another half inch.  Up to 4” max now on radar. That area with the Otter Creek can get crushed in FF.  It’s gotta be pretty solid with 2-4” in 90 minutes.

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I wonder if we’re gonna get some thunder down here overnight…

I had a light South Southeast breeze all day and then just in the last hour it suddenly kicked around in the west southwest and increased a little bit… When that happened the air took on that smell of summer’s BO like it’s trying to transport

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Once again, the GFS couldn’t resist.  It’s jamming all the heat back west again… All that we’ve been seeing trying to get into the east with the debatable WAR … Bahama Blue, or just dews…. it took it all and used it kill more hikers out west … dropping a trough in here at least excuse imaginable

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Bonkers, now 5-6+ inches on PWS in Middlebury.

076CB9C2-CE20-40CD-BFDA-3B1D3955C3BE.jpeg.b53967f2e8d44ee3821a59d4a1f2a956.jpeg
 

Radar showing a nice stripe of 5-7”.  Looks pretty legit from ground truth.

63804384-5B43-4FA2-85AB-FC04B243C42C.jpeg.593ac029f5a67f80897ba86990a194a0.jpeg

FFW just extended to Orange County.  These same areas were hit a couple of weeks ago. There was a lot of washed out road edges on Rt.125 down past the Middlebury Snow Bowl through Ripton. There was also a house that got burrows by a landslide. This certainly won’t help. 

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