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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

So when are we getting all this heat? After the 16th? Won't summer be pretty much over by then?

 

Screenshot_20230802_202038_Chrome.jpg

Yeah, this is the same reason I am happy when it's 1/30 and especially 2/10 or so...winter's basically over.  The whole "waiting for the right pattern" that never comes

 

 

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m pretty sure we will have a legit heat wave in early September.  

I personally like when we have a back breaking front by mid August and get to enjoy low dews and upper 70’s to end the month , I’ll take a above average mid September to October in exchange for a less humid August any year 

Im interested to see what we get for heat and humidity later next week as things to look toasty ahead of the front 

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How do we not get this in January or February?  Just deep ULL's digging into the lakes and translating eastward.  Very little chance of suppression depression progged in the pattern 7-10 days out... just moisture streaming northward in front of the ULL; cool and crisp just west of the battle grown between the trough and rising heights to the east.

eps_z500a_us_25.thumb.png.01ea075d8085f17482c7efc3deb94b59.png

52F latest OB at MVL (51F latest PWS) currently this evening.  B-Team radiator as HIE, BML, SLK have dipped into the upper 40s.

1522437642_August2.gif.65244415bf76c8aa32370da3ae6c5c4c.gif

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59 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

How do we not get this in January or February?  Just deep ULL's digging into the lakes and translating eastward.  Very little chance of suppression depression progged in the pattern 7-10 days out... just moisture streaming northward in front of the ULL; cool and crisp just west of the battle grown between the trough and rising heights to the east.

eps_z500a_us_25.thumb.png.01ea075d8085f17482c7efc3deb94b59.png

52F latest OB at MVL (51F latest PWS) currently this evening.  B-Team radiator as HIE, BML, SLK have dipped into the upper 40s.

1522437642_August2.gif.65244415bf76c8aa32370da3ae6c5c4c.gif

53 at MVY at 11pm and 56 Hyannis 57 Ack 

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Could see some nasty storms into Berkshire County and northwest Connecticut early tomorrow evening. A more linear storm mode may negate this somewhat, but could see some large hail. Lapse rates are actually pretty decent tomorrow and while height falls look meh, some guidance strengthens the wind fields across the region tomorrow. Timing pretty unfavorable for eastern areas. 

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HRRR is most robust with convection tomorrow which means one of two things:

1) It is totally out to lunch 

2) It is on to something and other guidance will play catch up

I am slightly leaning towards #2. One big plus here is mid-level lapse rates are pretty solid for these parts (between 6.5-7 C/KM but roughly closer to 6.5 than 7). Despite surface temperatures mainly in the upper 70's, dewpoints into the 60's should contribute to 1,000-1,500 J/KG of MLCAPE. Shear isn't tremendous, but it's sufficient to help with updraft organization and latest guidance increases wind fields during the afternoon. 

In terms of forcing, the best overall forcing is well north and as stated earlier, height falls are extremely minimal and may even be slightly rising. This alone would likely reduce the aerial coverage of convective activity, but smaller-scale phenomena could locally enhance forcing. In this scenario, we could see a few small clusters or line segments evolve. 

What does develop should have ample ingredients to work with to produce hail and some damaging wind gusts. Could see some fairly decent mlvl mesos tomorrow. 

Again...this is focused on western sections. 

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