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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was 26C 850 mb over ORD last week ... just sayn'

And it was spitting out 30C+ at H85 there. It's been 3-5C too high with the plume where it's mixing up to H5. I'll stick with the euro numbers that are plenty warm enough.

 

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Plus, I suspect it gets hotter for us here relative to 850 mb - assuming mixing depth.

Our sigma is a higher surface pressure.   That's why 23C ...albeit rare here, gets us our 104 rarity.  They need to 26C at 750' elevation to get that hot. 

The other aspect, it was 99/80 at one max point at MDW and ORD there...  If you take the DP down, they would have been hotter.

The GFS just has a bug up it's physical ass when it comes to BL thermodynamics and it's the handling of theta-e it seems to have never been very good with going back several versions since they start churning new ones out every 18 months or so.

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The other aspect, it was 99/80 at one max point at MDW and ORD there...  If you take the DP down, they would have been hotter.

Yup. It seems to struggle with that BL moisture pooling in the corn belt. It’s like it has dust bowl physics built in to the geography and all moisture just evaporates to the moon.

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44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Only thing I like that well-mixed is rum and coke

I prefer bourbon and a dash of bitters and simple syrup add a few fruit touches for a nice old fashioned.   Tried and true for a long time.  I never understood rum and coke.   I’d rather bourbon or scotch neat vs that abomination.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I prefer bourbon and a dash of bitters and simple syrup add a few fruit touches for a nice old fashioned.   Tried and true for a long time.  I never understood rum and coke.   I’d rather bourbon or scotch neat vs that abomination.

Oooh that sounds good. The bourbon at least. Can't stomach Scotch.

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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:
"Dry and seasonable into this evening. Periods of rain, some
heavy at times, possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with
another round Wednesday morning."

 

:blink:

In a wet summer, it's been fairly dry lately.  A few showers/storms Tue/Wed then....

Thursday and Friday...

Post-frontal airmass with high pres building in from the Gt Lakes
will bring dry conditions with seasonable temps. High pres and NW
flow aloft will keep Idalia and its moisture well south of New Eng.
Pleasant days with highs in the 70s with chilly nights. The coolest
night will be Thu night with lows dropping into the upper 40s
in the typically colder locations by Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday...

Continued dry weather but a warming trend is expected as high pres
shifts offshore and mid levels gradually warm. GEFS and EPS
ensembles indicate high probs of highs 80+ Sunday and Monday, while
GEFS has 30-50 percent probs of 90 for Monday. But this will depend
on sub-tropical ridge axis building east into New Eng. There is
uncertainty with how quickly an amplifying trough exits east of New
Eng next Mon which will impact temp forecast.
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36 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

In a wet summer, it's been fairly dry lately.  A few showers/storms Tue/Wed then....

Thursday and Friday...

Post-frontal airmass with high pres building in from the Gt Lakes
will bring dry conditions with seasonable temps. High pres and NW
flow aloft will keep Idalia and its moisture well south of New Eng.
Pleasant days with highs in the 70s with chilly nights. The coolest
night will be Thu night with lows dropping into the upper 40s
in the typically colder locations by Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday...

Continued dry weather but a warming trend is expected as high pres
shifts offshore and mid levels gradually warm. GEFS and EPS
ensembles indicate high probs of highs 80+ Sunday and Monday, while
GEFS has 30-50 percent probs of 90 for Monday. But this will depend
on sub-tropical ridge axis building east into New Eng. There is
uncertainty with how quickly an amplifying trough exits east of New
Eng next Mon which will impact temp forecast.

Yeah but if I get an inch of rain tomorrow and Wednesday I wouldn't consider that Stein.

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11 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

September is never wintry and March is never summery. I'm speaking of the months as a whole, not the historical highs/lows.

Sound advice.  But haven’t we had 80s in March recently?  Rarely remember September snows.

Feels like March gets closer to summery temps than September to winter temps.

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