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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I've hit 80 degrees 3 times this August.

Just one 90 degree day this year.

Maybe the first year in my 37 year history here that every square inch of our lawn stayed lush green all year.

One of the worst summers ever.

Only 1 80+ here and no 90s yet.

The 80s this year were Apr 2, May 2, Jun 5, Jul 19, Aug 1

19.36" so far for JJA

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8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I get it...there will be more blue come verification since it's getting washed out in the means, but it's still a sign of the times that heights are biased warmer across the entire NHEM

I've actually noticed the unbalancing for about 15 years frankly, and it's getting more coherent (as in changing). 

And yes "more" blue but not enough blue ... does materialize as those distance ranges near.

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Impressive couple of operational GFS runs overnight.   Seeing the 850 mb anomaly plumes actually near D5 before vanishing is one helluva an achievement (for this now geriatric summer). 

It's been almost 5 weeks of 'big heat' signaling into the D10+ range. 

I've seen these kind of summers before.  The pattern sets in early with either a trough in the E variant, or the Maritime version ... close enough in this latter sense that we have a constant mid level NW flow shearing heat off and preventing it from getting NE of Pittsburgh.  Either way, we block. Meanwhile,the whole summer, the models attempt to do so with heat in the extended... Finally, in September, we get a 3 day heat wave ... once the sun is wan. 

 

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I remember lots of September heatwaves when I was in school. Miserable in corduroys and long sleeve shirts. Absolutely no AC back then (We're talking 60's and early 70's) and that was back in the day when school started after Labor Day.

It'll start to cool down at the end of September. Always does. Just like it warms up at the end of March. September has always been a summerish month in my memories just like March is almost always winterish. Plenty of exceptions, but September is never wintry and March is never summery. I'm speaking of the months as a whole, not the historical highs/lows.

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52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've actually noticed the unbalancing for about 15 years frankly, and it's getting more coherent (as in changing). 

And yes "more" blue but not enough blue ... does materialize as those distance ranges near.

Warming background state...shouldn't be a surprise....

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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I remember lots of September heatwaves when I was in school. Miserable in corduroys and long sleeve shirts. Absolutely no AC back then (We're talking 60's and early 70's) and that was back in the day when school started after Labor Day.

It'll start to cool down at the end of September. Always does. Just like it warms up at the end of March. September has always been a summerish month in my memories just like March is almost always winterish. Plenty of exceptions, but September is never wintry and March is never summery. I'm speaking of the months as a whole, not the historical highs/lows.

They are finally putting AC in the rest of the schools in my town..amazing they went that long tolerating hot starts/end of the school years...not much learning when the classroom is 90+

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29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Impressive couple of operational GFS runs overnight.   Seeing the 850 mb anomaly plumes actually near D5 before vanishing is one helluva an achievement (for this now geriatric summer). 

It's been almost 5 weeks of 'big heat' signaling into the D10+ range. 

I've seen these kind of summers before.  The pattern sets in early with either a trough in the E variant, or the Maritime version ... close enough in this latter sense that we have a constant mid level NW flow shearing heat off and preventing it from getting NE of Pittsburgh.  Either way, we block. Meanwhile,the whole summer, the models attempt to do so with heat in the extended... Finally, in September, we get a 3 day heat wave ... once the sun is wan. 

 

Obi?

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49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Warming background state...shouldn't be a surprise....

As far as what it means for CC... mmm    - but, the "CC warming"  (as in delta -) isn't as fast as a single model run, putting up 40 to 50 dm of unbalanced medium at planetary scales, like Brian's post/ Euro ensemble means has it.  The GEFs does it too.

Yeah, so, I wasn't meaning to implicate CC in that. Lol.  I'm sure it plays a decimal part. But these guidance means seem to end up in that exotically warm state, which really vastly outpaces and surpasses the CC delta.  

 

 

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10 hours ago, dendrite said:

Only 1 80+ here and no 90s yet.

The 80s this year were Apr 2, May 2, Jun 5, Jul 19, Aug 1

19.36" so far for JJA

Looks like this will be our 3rd August w/o touching 80, with 2008 & 2019 the others.  Came close (79) on the 10th.  Reached 89 in both June and July.  80s in May (2), June (2), July (13).  Unless we get thunder before Friday, this will be the first July-August with just 2 thunder days, though 3 other years had only 3.


I remember lots of September heatwaves when I was in school. Miserable in corduroys and long sleeve shirts. Absolutely no AC back then (We're talking 60's and early 70's) and that was back in the day when school started after Labor Day.

My first football experience in pads came in my sophomore year of HS in 1961.  September's first 2 days were double sessions and highs were 94/95 at NYC and about the same in NNJ, with high dews.  (Knew little about dewpoints back then. :()   Had no measurable RA from 8/28 thru 9/13, so the practice field's sparse grass was long gone, leaving us to run around in a dustbowl.   Four years later on the same dates at Johns Hopkins, low 90s with TDs up to 81.  At least it wasn't the first time in pads, though running a mile (no pads!) immediately after the 9/1 morning practice was tortuous.

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59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Obi?

Yeah, the weakest of all the Jedi  ... Maybe that's why Obi was named 'Wan' ...

.. though it always seemed that way.  I always thought the cinema writers/story tellers were either holding back with him, while he's getting his ass handed to him by some Sith or Vader ...etc, or he was hiding the fact that he was kind of weak sauce.   These other Jedi were Earth movers in their hand-to-hand combat scenes.  Much more lithe and acrobatic.  Obi Wan was always sort of hiding behind some philosophy of taking the higher road... thinking his way out.  So it seemed - okay.

I thought Luke was like that too a little bit.  He was really good with the Light Saber, but he never moved stuff - as much - with his mind. Seemed to struggle there a little. Maybe he was like abstractly a good looking kid with a learning disability.  Take "Empire Strikes Back" ... he ends up upside down, tied off and helpless in an ice cave, while some man eating snow monster has him lined up on the menu.  His Saber is helplessly lodged in the wall of ice and snow some 10 feet away. With swelling timpani drums and dystopian keyboard synths in the background, he inhales deeply as he rolls his eyes back into his head. Temple veins pulsing, the sword begins to jiggle - 'oh he's gonna do it; he's gonna do it' no doubt.  The little Jedi engine that could ... it's at last freed in the nick of time so that in one motion he cuts him self from manacles and dispatches said monster.  

Other Jedis are flicking their hand and half a building collapses...  Floating through the air while solving equations and shit. Why the hell aren't they going at it against Vader and Siths. 

It's like the good heroes of that whole saga are kind of 'wan' ... or weak?   Underdogs I suppose.

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