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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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that should be the new distinction ... covers all the bases, really. 

for now on, the day is either 'not good for paving :(' or 'good day for paving :)'   

except in summer vs winter, the connotation changes sign, such that we like the ngp in winter, as oppose to summer. 

if we just stick to that it greatly simplifies the engagement.

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So... last night's Euro run marks the 5th consecutive day, so 10 cycles worth of models runs ..., whence the model puts up 18+ C at 850 MB on a continental wind trajectory, for D7/8/9 and 10.   Across none of those runs along that span of time has that layout made it to D6. 

The only reason I'm willing to buy this time .. (with a really cozy warranty -), is because the GFS is somehow managing against its own cold bias in that time range, to do something similar. 

Meanwhile, the 850 mb thermal layout above 70N is now consistently below 0C, with pockets of -10C increasing.  Nice to see that for winter enthusiasts ... It's like the cirrus over a distant horizon even though there isn't a cloud in the above sky.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that rain wasn’t happening. Good.

No convection later ?    not meaning to be snarky, but it feels humid and the LI's are still hovering around -3 at regional scales. 

Thing is, ...tomorrow.  The GGEM/NAM (stopped looking) have that kind of inversion miasma with raging mist look.  A circumstance that I think might be mitigated if there is less BL loading and more sun bake today? 

I haven't really been paying attention to the dailies over the past week.  Firmly in the other hobbies time of year. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No convection later ?    not meaning to be snarky, but it feels humid and the LI's are still hovering around -1 at regional scales. 

Thing is, ...tomorrow.  The GGEM/NAM (stopped looking) have that kind of inversion miasma with raging mist look.  A circumstance that I think might be mitigated if there is less BL loading and more sun bake today? 

I haven't really been paying attention to the dailies over the past week.  Firmly in the other hobbies time of year. 

I think it starts to dry out aloft. Maybe near the cape has a risk of a shwr/tstm.

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

oops i guess summer isn't over 

eps_T850aMean_us_fh288_trend.gif

I don't understand why these synoptic products depict those negative 850 "anomalies" over the (assumed) high country like that, when the entire region is under a synopsis lidded by the opposite.  Where does that come from?  They all do that, too, not just the Euro.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't understand why these synoptic products depict those negative 850 "anomalies" over the (assumed) high country like that, when the entire region is under a synopsis lidded by the opposite.  Where does that come from?  They all do that, too, not just the Euro.

there's always a huge blue blob over the himalayas too

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