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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Low dews days outnumber the high dews days. Lots of fronts dew days are rainy days. No big heat. Longer nights as we go on so any clearing and low wind and we radiate. I could see a very normal August.  No way does this pattern compare to July.

Not so sure about that. Define lower dews.

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Once we get past this weekend, looking at PWAT anomalies and theta-e the theme is for generally above-average PWAT values and rich theta-e air. The GFS at least shows a potent front moving through around the 13th or so which would elicit a period like now, but does that happen? If it does we get a good 3 day stretch of low humidity and dry weather, but right after that it would be an extended period of higher dews with rich theta-e air. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS is a Foc’ing steam bath 11-12th on. Whoa! Dewcie dew your partna Huly style coming right back to stay !

It's just going back to the same persistence ...

..it's really a lot like we are really riding through a 'relaxation' in said pattern.  The GFS has been mistaking the reload as a WAR expression, but by the time the 9th or so rolls around ...that's likely to have devolved into that previous dynamics.  Maybe even a Bahama Blue or variant thereof.

The indexes don't support a WAR circulation mode.  Never did...  Despite the spatial layout/synopsis of the ensemble means in that D7 to 15 range, the actual computational analysis ( teleconnectors) have a cold signal if anything.  -AO/-NAO/+PNA by mid month.  I'm willing to lean some on the low frequency state of the summer hemisphere, and allow that to "maybe" mean the +PNA won't mean the same thing now as it does in November - duh.   I think BB pattern isn't a terrible compromise between seasonality and that particular index spread.  

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's just going back to the same persistence ...

..it's really a lot like we are really riding through a 'relaxation' in said pattern.  The GFS has been mistaking the reload as a WAR expression, but by the time the 9th or so rolls around ...that's likely to have devolved into that previous dynamics.  Maybe even a Bahama Blue or variant thereof.

The indexes don't support a WAR circulation mode.  Never did...  Despite the spatial layout/synopsis of the ensemble means in that D7 to 15 range, the actual computational analysis ( teleconnectors) have a cold signal if anything.  -AO/-NAO/+PNA by mid month.  I'm willing to lean some on the low frequency state of the summer hemisphere, and allow that to "maybe" mean the +PNA won't mean the same thing now as it does in November - duh.   I think BB pattern isn't a terrible compromise between seasonality and that particular index spread.  

We warned and warned and warned and told and told and told . It’s coming. They jeered , coc kd , and charted 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We warned and warned and warned and told and told and told . It’s coming. They jeered , coc kd , and charted 

You’re insufferable with this stuff in the summer :lol:.  It’s like discussing favorite sports teams instead of the weather.

Still have to get past the 10-12th or so on EPS and GEFS.  There’s another 10 days or so before more wholesale changes start taking place.  Probably a couple dewy days mixed in ahead of FROPAs until then… but then looks like heights rise along NE coast and Maritimes which gets us into a more consistently humid pattern.

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