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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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Congrats TAN 

Main concern during this timeframe is the risk for localized
flooding, especially across eastern CT, RI, and central/eastern
MA. Given that we`ve been dry for the past couple of days it
will take a bit for flash flooding with 1 and 3 hr RFC FFG being
roughly 2-4". At this point think that this is the highest risk
for impactful weather for our area as PWATs are around 1.5-2
inches for much of Fri with warm cloud layer depths between
4-4.5 km. Did bump up precip amounts toward the NERFC/WPC
guidance, which matches up well with the HREF 48 hr PMM
guidance. The result is widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall and
think that there could be localized amounts of 3+ inches
especially in any areas where thunderstorms develop. Think the
risk is highest across the aforementioned locations above as
this is also where the 30-40+ kt LLJ is moving through. Given
how localized this threat is anticipated to be, based on
embedded thunder activity we have held off from hoisting a Flood
Watch at this point in time.
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15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

When does a water year run?

For this calendar year I’m at 41” of liquid

10/1 to 9/30

It tries to capture the time period so that the surface water is attributable to the same water year's precipitation (i.e. snowmelt is complete). For our purposes it does mean that the majority of the snowfall season is contained in the water year (except maybe MWN and places like that). 

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