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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Remember all those posts about weakened sun angle....blah blah blah??? It can be done. 

Yeah, no ..I've never been a fan of the 'daily sun' argument.

It's like the ground is too warm? sort of antithesis to that silliness. 

But I have obsevered 82-85 F in 3 Februaries now in the last 7 years, right here imby.   I mean, if the 850 mb is mixable, and it's 25F up there, it'll be in the 80s on Xmas

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About the only way it matters is having the higher sun angle lazing away at the back of one's neck and shoulders.  Yeah...if it's 95/70 on June 21, the sun will add more, but in terms of high temperature...  the modulation isn't as much as popular guess might have it.  It does account for some... but 25 C at 850 mb, well mixed, has to obey the adiabatic condition - it's just that simple.

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Meanwhile ... we're bustin' our balls over 77/58  

Usually there is a heat disparity between the MW and NE ... living here for more summers than many people have ever been alive tells us that is normally true to varying degrees.  This seasons might be the biggest variance I've seen.  So much deadly heat west, and while we just kept getting colder.

Tellin' yeah, we got our head up our collective ass if we try to argue against CC based upon our own experience.  LOL

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, no ..I've never been a fan of the 'daily sun' argument.

It's like the ground is too warm? sort of antithesis to that silliness. 

But I have obsevered 82-85 F in 3 Februaries now in the last 7 years, right here imby.   I mean, if the 850 mb is mixable, and it's 25F up there, it'll be in the 80s on Xmas

FIT has 1 80⁰temp in Feb 2018 no others station has any

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This is really depressing. Tired of these cloudy, cool days. Summer got swept under us like a table cloth 

SW lower Michigan is in some kind of exotic trouble this evening...  jesus.

93/80 at Kalamazoo, with S sfc wind, NW at 700 mb, and SRS just S of a warm boundary that is currently collapsing S of Lake Michigan.  Meanwhile, the inversion cloud wave forms have just gone... vanquished, which means their losing CIN - the 'core is exposed'

That watch is for the whole gambit.   SBCAPEs must be like over 4000

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sort of like DITs above the mulch garden.

 

Correct... the reading is actually accurate but it is not representative of the air mass... Just like a high dew point over the mulch bed is accurate for the spot, the local air mass dew point is considerably lower.

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