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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the MJO will shake it up a bit. Not saying 90s, but maybe a lot of 75-85 stuff. Hopefully more 80s.

I can see that happening... I'd like a modestly above normal Sept.  Don't need it to be hot, but low to mid 80's works for me... I think the window for that type of regime will open up during the first half of Sept once this latest troughing episode runs it's course.  Hard to believe some of the Plains heat won't eventually mix out a bit across the Upper Midwest & Northeast.

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5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Why not! Lol...  

One thing that does have me nervous is we see a flip regime into the Fall which favors a eastern ridge and that pattern strengthens into the winter and we see a more typical strong/super strong eastern EL Nino driven ridge...not saying this happens, but it is a concern. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

69.9.  :( 

 

All kidding aside, I do enjoy the warm season.  Last winter broke me. Another winter like that and I'll be looking at condos in APF.

 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

AVL looks better to me every year. Short winters, the chance of a biggie, and long warm summers. Average annual min since 2000 of 9F for a solid 7B growing zone. They haven't even gotten below 20F there in 2 of the last 3 winters. :lol:

lol, You young bucks already making plans for FL.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is?

Yes , the shape of the beach (first and second ) is a bit bay like and depending on the wind direction and whatever else ...Small red seaweed washes up and “gathers “ in corners of the surf zone and the Smell can be ..no bueno 

Cliffwalk , purgatory chasm, and Sachuest point are all nice walks along ocean with the latter two being a bit less busy 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing that does have me nervous is we see a flip regime into the Fall which favors a eastern ridge and that pattern strengthens into the winter and we see a more typical strong/super strong eastern EL Nino driven ridge...not saying this happens, but it is a concern. 

It should be a concern...

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I'm beginning to suspect we've been getting some 'harmonic' sort of feedback between the heat genesis and the ridging.  The warm Atlantic SSTs are contributing to positive node in the N. Atl basin ... while the unique heat potential of the N/A continent W of 90...100W is servicing helping to anchor that aspect.  The nadir between is mathematic

Intense thermal ridging adds by driving an intense thermal wind vector that when acted on by the C-force, it bends anticyclonic which is the mechanical constructive interference. In a sloppy sense ... the 'ridge protects itself'  It may help explain why our 'warm than normal' summers over the last decade(s) has been ballast in the overnight lows/DP contribution to elevating matters rather than stellar highs.  As well as the transfixing nature of summers incapable of bringing the goods east other than transience.

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