powderfreak Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pretty exceptional warm signal - relative to calendar - over the last couple of modeling cycles. American telecon spread combined with trend techniques ... not exactly opposed either. There is zero doubt that this trough and persistently lower heights over NE turn into an absolute torch as we head into the Fall… without even looking at any model guidance, ha. Because why not? Then we can all hear a poster saying “you all wanted the trough in the summer, now we get a never ending ridge when it’s supposed to cool off… you did this.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: That’s a real hoot trying to rip 110° in the Great Lakes for a week in September. Gotta love the ole American 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GFS is an odd model. The scaffolding of it's synoptics is often accumulating a cold bias by the time it gets beyond 5 and appreciably more so, 10 days.. Yet, despite that, it fleshes out said scaffolding with a total clown heat-show in the boundary layer warm sectors like that. We can see upper 90s and blow most records away and do so by a goodly margin just fine - also in the integral if that were to last days. I haven’t followed it much but I figured with some of the discussion a few weeks ago that warmth was on the table in early September. It’s been an exceptional period of heat to our south and west, and while I don’t expect 100 in September I do think we get pretty warm relative to normal for at least a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: There is zero doubt that this trough and persistently lower heights over NE turn into an absolute torch as we head into the Fall… without even looking at any model guidance, ha. Because why not? Then we can all hear a poster saying “you all wanted the trough in the summer, now we get a never ending ridge when it’s supposed to cool off… you did this.” Just in time to suppress any tropical lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It’s trying to get the mixing layer up near 500mb a week into September. It’s going to inflate 850 temps by doing that as well. Just toss it all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It’s trying to get the mixing layer up near 500mb a week into September. It’s going to inflate 850 temps by doing that as well. Just toss it all. Word! I just got done saying something similar. The 'pattern' is warming and supports anomalies, but this model fills it in with this kind of error. also, the model cumulatively ends up with too high of heights(equatorial-side) and too low of heights (polar-side) of the meant jet - particularly observable beyond D6. I noticed this in the winter actually. Which ironically ... it's less noticeable during winters since ~ 2004 ..since the winters became/becoming gradient saturated with higher temperature gradients in the transition latitudes --> higher wind velocities. It's like the physics of the model has the right idea, but is too extreme there-over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Was with family in WI this week. Gfs consistently had 110+ forecasted 5 days out. Right idea and hit 100, but way overdone.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, drstuess said: Was with family in WI this week. Gfs consistently had 110+ forecasted 5 days out. Right idea and hit 100, but way overdone. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 95-100 vs 110-115 is a big deal. It always looked hot up there. The problem is the overmixing. It’s been trying to paint a desert-like 115/45 out there when reality is dews verify 75-80 with near 100 temps. That’s what it’s doing again in the Great Lakes and OH Valley. So take that 110/45 and make it 98/78. Both are miserable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Euro also showing the PRE rain event Tuesday night/ Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Congrats to all that welcomed cooling in Aug. https://x.com/wxjay/status/1695890865930002626?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Looks good. Heart of the ridge where it has been with an up and down pattern averaging AN here. Perfect for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I’m down in Baltimore for a conference this week. 90° today. Was pretty warm watching the ballgame. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 44 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks good. Heart of the ridge where it has been with an up and down pattern averaging AN here. Perfect for September. Looks more like prolonged heat relative to time of year so lots of 82-88 with a 90-91 in usual spots . Doesn’t seem like much in the way of fropas . That WAR is backing way nW . Might not be super humid with dews in 60’s .. but that is one hell of a prolonged warm signal overall for northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 The old rule tried and true.. when Alaska and Pac NW are cold.. the northeast goes well AN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The old rule tried and true.. when Alaska and Pac NW are cold.. the northeast goes well AN Works OK with long wavelengths. Voodoo this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Works OK with long wavelengths. Voodoo this time of year. I’m not saying record heat for weeks .. but the worry is looking like it’s going to happen. Extended WAR and ridging now that fall is about to begin. Just when you want cool and crisp in Sept and Oct .. endless summer sets in. It’s become our Climo and I guess it’s what we all expect it now .. Only good piece I guess is that with WAR backing so far NW.. it entertains canes getting way far north if things set up right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Tiny thunderstorm about to roll through. Didn’t expect any thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I’m down in Baltimore for a conference this week. 90° today. Was pretty warm watching the ballgame. Love that park, been sown there several times. Gotta have crabs while you're there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m not saying record heat for weeks .. but the worry is looking like it’s going to happen. Extended WAR and ridging now that fall is about to begin. Just when you want cool and crisp in Sept and Oct .. endless summer sets in. It’s become our Climo and I guess it’s what we all expect it now .. Only good piece I guess is that with WAR backing so far NW.. it entertains canes getting way far north if things set up right Looks more like a pig ridge centered over the TN/MS valley in much of the extended ens. Expect an occasional cold front with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tiny thunderstorm about to roll through. Didn’t expect any thunder Yeah got one big rumble but that's it, then started raining, still raining lightly. Overall a very nice weekend contrary to what we thought it was going to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro also showing the PRE rain event Tuesday night/ Wednesday Looks like a localized heavy rain event across guidance now. Haven't been paying much attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like a localized heavy rain event across guidance now. Haven't been paying much attention. Only question is it interior SNE or TAN to S Wey areas. Models ale split on where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only question is it interior SNE or TAN to S Wey areas. Models ale split on where I thought torch tiger said Stein? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: I thought torch tiger said Stein? His brother weather tiger is concerned about the hurricane. " The number one rule of this column is not to pull the fire alarm unless there is a fire. Idalia is a fire. I’m pulling the alarm." https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/hurricane/2023/08/27/tropical-storm-idalia-a-major-hurricane-threat-to-florida-forecast/70690742007/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: Love that park, been sown there several times. Gotta have crabs while you're there. I am just not a seafood guy. Maybe I'll put some Old Bay on a burger. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: All those same merry was over posts looking sillier by the hour as we are facing a long and extruded heater and dewy period starting LDW. Across the board now we have models showing a big PRE rain event on Tuesday night/ Wednesday. 3-6” in a short period . These can really produce . so when will you admit the bust? Scooter admitted it a week or 2 ago. you know, when you said hot and Dewey from 8/12 through the end of September. or more recently when you called for 2-4” of rain region wide this past Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 IJD to Windham to maybe about Scotland, CT where the Tor hit last week has gotten pummeled with rains tonight. Very localized , but there’s been 1-3+ inches in that area over the last 2 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: IJD to Windham to maybe about Scotland, CT where the Tor hit last week has gotten pummeled with rains tonight. Very localized , but there’s been 1-3+ inches in that area over the last 2 hours Old data on radar estimates. It’s probably only 1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Only question is it interior SNE or TAN to S Wey areas. Models ale split on where Hopefully away from here. Mushrooms are back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Sucks we won't see a freeze for a while. Maybe November for some. Rough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Sucks we won't see a freeze for a while. Maybe November for some. Rough Fine by me. It'll give my pawpaws more time to harden off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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