August model and weather disco

[Ginx snewx]

  On 8/14/2023 at 5:39 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've had a ton this summer in the woods behind my house....definitely more than I normally see in the summer. Usually I see them more in winter because it's easier to spot them with no foliage/undergrowth. But this summer, I've glanced into the woods many times and saw them moving.

Also on a brighter note, the yellowjackets this summer have seen quite a bit fewer than normal. I'm wondering if some of the ground nests got flooded out during the heavier rain events. I'm sure I'll step on a nest in September now that I said this.

Expand  

You fucking Ginxed me. I just ran over a nest with my lawn mower. Got stung twice. I fired those bastards up.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is a soaker south of pike

[kdxken]

  On 8/14/2023 at 7:18 PM, Ginx snewx said:

You fucking Ginxed me. I just ran over a nest with my lawn mower. Got stung twice. I fired those bastards up.

Expand  

Yeah they're still around. Took care of three nests a week or so ago. Not sure the nests are as large as most years. 

 

This however is large. Noticed it today. Bald-faced nest in the wood. Judging by the traffic it's a doozy.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Dews in the 60s today.

[CoastalWx]

NAM going wild on south coast.

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/14/2023 at 7:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

NAM going wild on south coast.

Expand  

Pretty big difference between 3km and 12km. Right along and just north of the warm front is going to get smoked with rain. That may end up being over the Sound or on Long Island through extreme southern Rhode Island and outer Cape, but there is going to be a swath of like 3-5'' of rain. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/14/2023 at 8:06 PM, weatherwiz said:

Pretty big difference between 3km and 12km. Right along and just north of the warm front is going to get smoked with rain. That may end up being over the Sound or on Long Island through extreme southern Rhode Island and outer Cape, but there is going to be a swath of like 3-5'' of rain. 

Expand  

Yeah, although 3K was fairly far to the north too. I'm still leery of this getting to the S coast...but not impossible. Kind of hope it does because it's been boring lol.

[ma blizzard]

Typical super over amped NAM run right before go time .. 3km solution seems a lot more believable than the 12km 

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/14/2023 at 8:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, although 3K was fairly far to the north too. I'm still leery of this getting to the S coast...but not impossible. Kind of hope it does because it's been boring lol.

Expand  

I wonder if there will be two max areas of rainfall totals. One very close to the sfc warm front/SLP track and perhaps a second farther inland closer to the H7 warm front? Based on where the NAM/GFS are developing and tracking the sfc low it seems very hard pressed to believe the sfc warm front will ever make it to the coast, but the outer Cape I think would have the best shot. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/14/2023 at 8:12 PM, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if there will be two max areas of rainfall totals. One very close to the sfc warm front/SLP track and perhaps a second farther inland closer to the H7 warm front? Based on where the NAM/GFS are developing and tracking the sfc low it seems very hard pressed to believe the sfc warm front will ever make it to the coast, but the outer Cape I think would have the best shot. 

Expand  

Yeah probably an area with the 850-700 WF and then near the srfc WF.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like late Tuesday night could have a slug of rain too as a potent s/w moves in.

[Damage In Tolland]

With warm SST’s, summer and no blocking warm front shouldn’t get jammed up 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 8/14/2023 at 7:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Dews in the 60s today.

Expand  

Barely.  Some spots still in the 50s at airports

[78Blizzard]

I see the 12z GFS finally threw in the towel on us getting into the 90's.  First run in a while that I've seen without anything even approaching 90 here for the entire run.

That probably means we will see some.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jaffery, Chicopee, Orange all still in the upper 50s last report

ORH and FIT just at 60

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/14/2023 at 9:23 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Jaffery, Chicopee, Orange all still in the upper 50s last report

ORH and FIT just at 60

Expand  

CT/RI and a lot of ern MA in the 60s. 67 here. 

[tamarack]

  On 8/14/2023 at 7:48 PM, kdxken said:

Yeah they're still around. Took care of three nests a week or so ago. Not sure the nests are as large as most years. 

 

This however is large. Noticed it today. Bald-faced nest in the wood. Judging by the traffic it's a doozy.

 

 

Expand  

Guessing that pile remains untouched until several freezes have hit.

Tomorrow's event is becoming smaller for much of Maine.  Okay with me as Public Lands' peer review field trip is tomorrow and Wednesday, downeast this time, overnight at Lubec. 
(Of course, a noted forestry professor while I was at U. Maine liked to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing."  In a deep south accent.)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 8/14/2023 at 9:23 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Jaffery, Chicopee, Orange all still in the upper 50s last report

ORH and FIT just at 60

Expand  

Stay safe 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Enjoyed a couple hours at the pool. Weather was comfortable and to be honest for a “pool afternoon “ would have enjoyed it 90 degrees 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is pretty wet south of pike tomorrow. Other globals kind of 

[WxWatcher007]

It won’t but let’s get that little area of vorticity later this week on the GFS to pop over the Gulf Stream and bring us a PRE/Cape landfall

[Torch Tiger]

No big heat, no severe, no tropical. Rough time of year unless you're 

[dendrite]

  On 8/14/2023 at 8:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

With warm SST’s, summer and no blocking warm front shouldn’t get jammed up 

Expand  

Just imagine how easily they’ll rip through down there in December. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 8/14/2023 at 10:39 PM, dendrite said:

Just imagine how easily they’ll rip through down there in December. 

Expand  

Always do

[powderfreak]

Euro tries to build the ridge into here only for it to get beaten back by more troughing.

These models are finding any excuse possible to not let ridging establish itself in the Northeast.  Better blocking than we see in winter on some of these runs.

[kdxken]

  On 8/14/2023 at 11:28 PM, powderfreak said:

Euro tries to build the ridge into here only for it to get beaten back by more troughing.

These models are finding any excuse possible to not let ridging establish itself in the Northeast.  Better blocking than we see in winter on some of these runs.

Expand  

I've changed my mind. I don't want it cold. This summer was too short.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 8/14/2023 at 9:33 PM, tamarack said:

Guessing that pile remains untouched until several freezes have hit.

Tomorrow's event is becoming smaller for much of Maine.  Okay with me as Public Lands' peer review field trip is tomorrow and Wednesday, downeast this time, overnight at Lubec. 
(Of course, a noted forestry professor while I was at U. Maine liked to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, just improper clothing."  In a deep south accent.)

Expand  

Yeah that is a brutal white faced hornets nest in that pile. My guess is several hundred hornets at minimum based on the frequency of the traffic in and out of the nest. Dig into that wood pile on a 20F November morning and see how big the nest remnants are. 

[Torch Tiger]

At the moment, **and certainly
good news**, is that forecast instability values are too paltry to
support a risk for severe weather; given rather strong flow fields,
severe weather potential would then be increased if greater
instability values can materialize, though it would seem this would
have to be through more sunshine/warmer temps.

 

Ugh 

[weatherwiz]

  On 8/14/2023 at 11:39 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that is a brutal white faced hornets nest in that pile. My guess is several hundred hornets at minimum based on the frequency of the traffic in and out of the nest. Dig into that wood pile on a 20F November morning and see how big the nest remnants are. 

Expand  

I got stung by several of those suckers in high school. The pain was brutal. First sting felt like a stick went through my arm. 

[kdxken]

  On 8/14/2023 at 11:56 PM, weatherwiz said:

I got stung by several of those suckers in high school. The pain was brutal. First sting felt like a stick went through my arm. 

Expand  

Bald-Faced Hornet (2.0)

Schmidt describes this sting, which can throb for almost five minutes before subsiding, as “rich, hearty, slightly crunchy. Similar to getting your hand mashed in a revolving door.”