40/70 Benchmark Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We want MEN. We NEED MEN. Big weenies/Big weenies or bust. Yikes. Enough of this season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12Z NAM is way north now...LOL Hey whats a 500 mile shift in one run, Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yikes. Enough of this season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hey whats a 500 mile shift in one run, Toss. Yep it's the NAM so there's always that-big boy models up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow is going to be quite interesting. Biggest challenge is going to be where that sfc low develops and tracks which is going to be heavily influenced by the Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley convection. I would think the most favorable track for this would be just south of southern New England, but is it across Long Island or just south of Long Island? In terms of any severe weather potential, this track is key because if the track is across Long Island, the true warm sector and triple point will likely scoot across southern Connecticut, Long Island, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod. There would be potential for some brief tornadoes. If the track is south of Long Island, severe potential is nada (except maybe Nantucket and the Vineyard). Regardless, I think we're in line for some flash flooding rainfall. upper-level dynamics are pretty strong and we look to be in a very favored position for enhanced upper-level divergence. Looks like H7 warm front pushes well into the region which will aid in lift as well. In addition, we'll have the nose of a strong low-level jet and a very moist airmass. All kidding aside, tomorrow does have the look of another heavy precipitation event in SNE, provided the low doesn’t slide as far south as the earlier Euro depicted. For CT, I don’t think we get a low north enough to warm sector and bring a severe threat, but SE MA maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All kidding aside, tomorrow does have the look of another heavy precipitation event in SNE, provided the low doesn’t slide as far south as the earlier Euro depicted. For CT, I don’t think we get a low north enough to warm sector and bring a severe threat, but SE MA maybe? Yeah I don't think we see the true warm sector get very far north at all. But the widespread rain threat is very real given dynamics and strong upper-level divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I don't think we see the true warm sector get very far north at all. But the widespread rain threat is very real given dynamics and strong upper-level divergence. I'm sure we're going to see flash flood watches for many areas given the wet conditions that already exist in most areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: I'm sure we're going to see flash flood watches for many areas given the wet conditions that already exist in most areas Seems like a good bet, especially if there is a great deal of consistency with the 12z guidance. This could be quite bad though if some of these scenarios verify. Luckily this should be more on the progressive side, but this is a situation where 2-3'' of rain could fall within a short amount of time. Sometimes its not about the rainfall totals, but how much is falling within a certain duration. I could see a narrow area though of 4-6''+ depending on how this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Nam gone wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'm sure we're going to see flash flood watches for many areas given the wet conditions that already exist in most areas It has been unreal. I’m just under 14” since July 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Could this potentially turn into one of those deals where months later it’s determined the low had acquired some tropical characteristics and was actually a depression/low end storm? I think this happened just a couple of years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It has been unreal. I’m just under 14” since July 2. About 16 here in my gauge since the storms of 7/3. Crazy after last summer's epic dry stretch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam gone wild I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Could this potentially turn into one of those deals where months later it’s determined the low had acquired some tropical characteristics and was actually a depression/low end storm? I think this happened just a couple of years ago I don’t think so. Everything about this looks non-tropical to me. For that kind of scenario you really want a low to pop off the SE coast, acquire tropical characteristics, and tangle with a trough as it rolls NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk Feels like fall/winter dynamics. Irrelevant but the Gondola up here is on wind hold for WNW winds of up to 65mph at 4,000ft. Looks like MWN gusting to 80mph. Very rare to get that wind speed in the summer months up here to impact operations, that’s a winter thing. Shows sort of where the atmosphere is right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 If your talking 3K, I can see that being close to right, I believe this will stay further south with the bulk over SNE this go round. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Feels like fall/winter dynamics. Irrelevant but the Gondola up here is on wind hold for WNW winds of up to 65mph at 4,000ft. Very rare to get that wind speed in the summer months up here, that’s a winter thing. Shows sort of where the atmosphere is right now. Wow that's quite impressive for sure. The atmosphere is certainly going to be juiced. We're looking at PWAT values once again between 1.70-2.00'' so it isn't going to take much to ring out the atmosphere. We've all seen first hand what even "tiny showers" produce in terms of rainfall rates in this type of airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 hour ago, tamarack said: What's that weird spot west from BGR? Somebody's thermometer next to the exhaust of their heat pump motor? August 1-8 is 4.5° BN here. Storm total was 3.51", second only to Irene (4.41") for August downpours, 1998 on. What data are those maps from...PWS? I wonder if there is one PWS in the center of that bullseye (looks to be Dover-Foxcroft) that is running hot, and maybe there aren't any others nearby, so they extrapolate outwards a certain radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 RGEM is weird-hits a brick wall over western/central CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, tunafish said: What data are those maps from...PWS? I wonder if there is one PWS in the center of that bullseye (looks to be Dover-Foxcroft) that is running hot, and maybe there aren't any others nearby, so they extrapolate outwards a certain radius. You can also see the SST influence east of HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: You can also see the SST influence east of HYA. I don't think it's SST influence in Dover-Foxcroft, if that's what you're suggesting. @tamarack If those maps rely on Co-Op data, this might explain what's going on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 GFS is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, tunafish said: I don't think it's SST influence in Dover-Foxcroft, if that's what you're suggesting. @tamarack If those maps rely on Co-Op data, this might explain what's going on: helping or hurting? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 yesterday totals: (no map for BTV yet...sorry) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 41 minutes ago, tunafish said: What data are those maps from...PWS? I wonder if there is one PWS in the center of that bullseye (looks to be Dover-Foxcroft) that is running hot, and maybe there aren't any others nearby, so they extrapolate outwards a certain radius. D-F is a good guess, maybe Charleston (at the minimum security lockup?) and I'm sure you're correct about the extrapolation. The weirdness is that it's 7-8° warmer than its surroundings. I can't recall seeing such an anomaly before. Feels like fall/winter dynamics. Irrelevant but the Gondola up here is on wind hold for WNW winds of up to 65mph at 4,000ft. Looks like MWN gusting to 80mph. Very rare to get that wind speed in the summer months up here to impact operations, that’s a winter thing. Shows sort of where the atmosphere is right now. It happens. On July 20, 1996 MWN had a 24-hour average wind speed of 99 mph with a gust to 154, easily their windiest event in met summer. Two friends were married that Saturday in South Gardiner near the Kennebec, and the reception was outside in a large tent held down by 4-foot steel bars. We had to periodically pound them down as the wind tried to make the tent go airborne - gusts probably 50+ for hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Man that 3k NAM would be crazy over NE MA after the half foot plus from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think it's a totally outlandish solution. That trough is continuing to amplify and interacts with the shortwave energy associated with that convection. Kind of has a fall/winter feel to it with the dynamics and interactions...idk Yeah was more about how wild the solution is lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Feels good to have a breezy day for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Let’s not grab another 4-6” Thursday pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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