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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Going to be some storms and heavy downpours up north tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Probably see some flash flooding and maybe a few strong storms with some small hail.

Yeah might be hydro issues. Not sure about severe, but good LLJ so maybe some winds.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

A lot of those stations have short periods of record, missing years, or are threaded with COOP data from a previous site. I don't think there were any records for the long term climo sites.

Are you aware of any known biases of ASOS temperature gauges relative to AWOS gauges in radiating conditions?  It seems odd to me that BDL would be 5 degrees warmer than CEF when the temperatures were otherwise so uniform (based on the AWOS/PWS data) around interior New England, and BDL really should not be a UHI.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Deeper GL trough. Let the soup come.

yeah... I've been willing to sell the WAR notion to be frank, but not entirely.   I still think it's more likely it devolves to a Bahama Blue circulation mode.  Either that or a red herring and we just end up back in a general dented Ontario westerlies.   Maybe we sneak a ribbon of heat out along the underbelly of this latter version..but I lean more BB humidity as opposed to WAR enveloped eastern continent and heat from that type.

we'll see. 

I don't think this summer's letting us out of the +PNA mode though.  Why?  who the hell knows, but it's been relaying into different forms .. never abating. 

Probably does finally do so on November 18th - February 24th

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4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Are you aware of any known biases of ASOS temperature gauges relative to AWOS gauges in radiating conditions?  It seems odd to me that BDL would be 5 degrees warmer than CEF when the temperatures were otherwise so uniform (based on the AWOS/PWS data) around interior New England, and BDL is really should not be a UHI.

I'm not aware of any. They did have numerous 3kt obs overnight so maybe it was slightly more mixed? 3kt isn't a hell of a lot though...especially at an airport. Sometimes that's just drainage flow too. CEF did have dews in the low 40s while BDL was upper 40s. I'm not sure how "real" that is or if it even mattered, but maybe that's an explanation. Aside from that, I haven't followed BDL and CEF enough to really get a feel for the rad cooling trends between the two. I guess it's something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

What would you have expected at BDL given the 47.5F at CEF?

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not aware of any. They did have numerous 3kt obs overnight so maybe it was slightly more mixed? 3kt isn't a hell of a lot though...especially at an airport. Sometimes that's just drainage flow too. CEF did have dews in the low 40s while BDL was upper 40s. I'm not sure how "real" that is or if it even mattered, but maybe that's an explanation. Aside from that, I haven't followed BDL and CEF enough to really get a feel for the rad cooling trends between the two. I guess it's something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

What would you have expected at BDL given the 47.5F at CEF?

Thanks.  I dunno what I would have expected, but I note 47 at KLEB, 47 at KORE, 47 at KCEF, and then 52 at KBDL.  CEF and BDL are 18 miles apart.  Could be that random N @5kt wind I suppose.  Or a sensor difference.

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Deeper GL trough. Let the soup come.

This looks more like the set-ups from July.  Deeper trough, and ridging along the coast and maritimes.

Much different than DIT's "identical" post yesterday that had lower heights stretched straight across the north.

gfs_z500a_eus_38.thumb.png.0122266fbd9444af4eea81b8bf89af40.png

 

And not shockingly that upper level pattern is translating to +RN in the northeast at that time.

gfs_ref_frzn_eus_38.thumb.png.722b9cdb0e069f0d7f78d33c42221ecc.png

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Moving forward, majority of the month is going to be a bit above-average with temperatures (again mostly driven by warm overnight mins) with plenty bouts of high humidity. One difference is we may see stronger frontal systems move through and behind those passages we'll get weather like we're getting now but those periods will be short-lived (maybe a few days). 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Moving forward, majority of the month is going to be a bit above-average with temperatures (again mostly driven by warm overnight mins) with plenty bouts of high humidity. One difference is we may see stronger frontal systems move through and behind those passages we'll get weather like we're getting now but those periods will be short-lived (maybe a few days). 

Low dews days outnumber the high dews days. Lots of fronts dew days are rainy days. No big heat. Longer nights as we go on so any clearing and low wind and we radiate. I could see a very normal August.  No way does this pattern compare to July.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Low dews days outnumber the high dews days. Lots of fronts dew days are rainy days. No big heat. Longer nights as we go on so any clearing and low wind and we radiate. I could see a very normal August.  No way does this pattern compare to July.

It's going to be highly dependent on what really happens with these fronts. We could easily see stronger WAR building west which would weaken the fronts upon approach or even stop them from moving through all together. 

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