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August model and weather disco


weathafella
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  On 8/1/2023 at 3:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

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By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 2:57 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Feels like a Mid sept day 

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It does...  In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74

I am at 76 at the moment.   Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm.  So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

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  On 8/1/2023 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

Might be a couple of COC shots next week. Not like this, but perhaps 78-85 and lower dews. Gets more humid post 8/12 or so.

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This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

BzmAaAf.png

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  On 8/1/2023 at 4:18 PM, weathafella said:

By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

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Yes...around about the 10th...just like Feb.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 4:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It does...  In fact, the average high for Boston ( sort of a pos site to use but whatever..) on Sep 15 is 74

I am at 76 at the moment.   Makes sense because "average" during this acceleration of CC is probably always going to be the 30 years + either decimals or a whole degree(s) when factoring in the logarithm.  So what I'm musing here is that it's like 'exactly' mid september preview. heh

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We have about a May 10 sun today.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 4:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This looks like an exact replica of July . Think it’s coming and setting up shop again . Trough anchored over lakes with warm humid stormy look east coast 

BzmAaAf.png

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That doesn’t look like an exact replica at all except for the fact that yes there is a trough across the north.

We had higher than normal heights over the NE and into Maritimes.  That look wouldn’t have given CAR is warmest July.

@Damage In Tolland spot the differences… we were the battle ground in July, on the gradient.  Not in the map you showed.

2E7E05CA-CBAC-4263-AB82-0E66BB750247.thumb.jpeg.5b8e5a48c601348585cf43345c64eb9f.jpeg

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  On 8/1/2023 at 5:22 PM, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS looks humid at times but also has some really nice days.. nothing hot though that I can see.. I would say it's pretty normal for this time of year

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Yeah we've all been expecting a fairly normal August; some warm/dew days, and some coc shots.  No one would think otherwise.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 5:33 PM, powderfreak said:

That doesn’t look like an exact replica at all except for the fact that yes there is a trough across the north.

We had higher than normal heights over the NE and into Maritimes.  That look wouldn’t have given CAR is warmest July.

@Damage In Tolland spot the differences… we were the battle ground in July, on the gradient.  Not in the map you showed.

2E7E05CA-CBAC-4263-AB82-0E66BB750247.thumb.jpeg.5b8e5a48c601348585cf43345c64eb9f.jpeg

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Please don't dilute the discussion with model analysis.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 4:18 PM, weathafella said:

By mid month yes.   Not on 8/1 at least to me.   Some of our hottest days have been recorded in the 8/1-10 period.   Normal temperatures start dropping by the 10th.

The sun angle today is similar to mid May which I consider high albeit with much cooler temperatures.

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That's already underway. For example today's BOS normals are 82/66 compared to 82/67 a couple days ago. Last week was peak week.

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  On 8/1/2023 at 5:52 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Please don't dilute the discussion with model analysis.

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lol, a Great Lakes trough is great and all but it’s only one part of the puzzle. If it’s elongated across New England it’s not going to do anything close to how July went… with the GL trough encountering serious resistance from ridging in the maritimes that allowed for moist/humid air to stream well north over and over.

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