Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: He actually said it isn’t gonna be anything particularly strong in his opening statements. Yeah... but it just wasn't clear given his word choice - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... but it just wasn't clear given his word choice - Ahh ok. Hey, we’ll see what later brings. Won’t be to difficult to outperform Thursday here, so I’ll be interested in seeing if that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 Block Island got crushed this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Interesting that machine learning convective probs are highest across the Mid Atlantic into NJ. Thus lots of moving parts here yielding a below average convective forecast Anyone have a link for this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, radarman said: Interesting that machine learning convective probs are highest across the Mid Atlantic into NJ. Thus lots of moving parts here yielding a below average convective forecast Anyone have a link for this model? CSU I’m guessing http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/csu_severe.php?date=20230729&version=2021&product=severe_ml_day1_all_gefso&day=1&day_str=0730&init=00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 1770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...southern New England into parts of eastern New York and far northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291533Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A steady increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through the afternoon, with locally strong wind gusts becoming more likely as the airmass destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows partly sunny conditions across southern New England and into parts of eastern New York and vicinity. Daytime heating through late morning has supported modest destabilization, which will continue into the afternoon given dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As an MCV now crossing eastern Lake Erie continues to shift eastward, expect storm coverage to increase as afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rise into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. While low-level flow is forecast to remain weaker as compared to areas farther south, mid-level westerlies near 30 kt will support potential for organized storms and some upscale growth into small-scale bands. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the strongest storms, through the afternoon hours, and this potential appears sufficient that WW issuance will likely be required in the next hour. ..Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 18 minutes ago, radarman said: Interesting that machine learning convective probs are highest across the Mid Atlantic into NJ. Thus lots of moving parts here yielding a below average convective forecast Anyone have a link for this model? I am rather skeptical about that thing...but I don't use it enough to really have a solid opinion but from the little I've really used it...meh. I'm so sick of all this AI crap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 lots of crapola popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 this cell up here in NW middlesex co is leaning right aloft, leaving the updraft uncontaminated. Really strong updraft over top with crispy edges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 Still a quite a bit of mixed-layer CAPE to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Still a quite a bit of mixed-layer CAPE to erode. The irony is that we're exploding right now as I type up here in "NE Mass" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 I see... the front has tipped SW up here as a weak BD and the storms here are firing along it draped configuration - you can see the boundary on base reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Have never seen high 70sdews offshore in July before. That's gotta count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The irony is that we're exploding right now as I type up here in "NE Mass" Quite a bit of SBCAPE with no CIN...wonder if we're either eroding MLCIN or if that will kind of put a lid on how intense this initial stuff can get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Starting to pop to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Pretty dark from the cells popping up to my south, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I am rather skeptical about that thing...but I don't use it enough to really have a solid opinion but from the little I've really used it...meh. I'm so sick of all this AI crap Your robot overlords will remember this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Greenfield area getting soaked again. Maybe the other half of Rte 2 can fall into the Connecticut R 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Just been told by MIL there's street flooding going on in Washington Square in Brookline. Still barely sprinkles where I am in Newtonville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 svr watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 What happened on Block Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 BOS getting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Whheeee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Connecticut Massachusetts Extreme southern Maine Southern New Hampshire South central New York Northeast Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from New York and northeast Pennsylvania eastward into parts of southern New England. The storm environment will favor a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging winds and isolated large hail through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Wilkesbarre PA to 30 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Torrential rain here but no lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Ummmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Yeah. That is tightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ummmm probably side lobe contamination there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 How is there no warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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