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July 28th Severe Weather


CheeselandSkies
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I fully expect to head to FireKeepers Casino in my typical Friday night fashion, drink 2-3 Crown Peach doubles, lose a few $$$ then on my way home hopefully be watching anvil-crawlers/constant lighting moving in from the west all to be finished off while sitting in the hot tub while it starts to storm. 
 

Also looks like the cold front won’t be moving through now until tomorrow morning, so kinda thinking we may be in for a pretty quiet afternoon and evening. 100% cloudy here at the moment with just the slightest trace of sun poking through - definitely not going to make it into the 90’s today, but with the later timing of the front the severe threat is kinda meh around here anyway. Just hoping for some good rollers and lots of lightning. 
 

Edit* Peaked at the 14z HRRR and chuckled.. shows a nasty local bow pushing through at around 80mph with large hail at 3am - sweet :arrowhead: 

 

Looks pretty wicked in northern Illinois around 9PM though… 

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20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

That’s what I do when I’m at home even throw in a real leaf once in awhile. I drive a company vehicle so I want smell down to 0 any way possible inside my truck and at the hotel. Otherwise I’d bring my pack down and grab some rellos or my papers.

Hotels are perfect for rosin. You guys have persy sauce out there yet?

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7 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Hotels are perfect for rosin. You guys have persy sauce out there yet?

Yeah we got quite a few over here now. Not that one it particular from what I’ve seen. My nectar collector broke a month ago or else I’d be bringing my GMO hash rosin. Only have my rig at home right now but I don’t want to break my expensive piece haha

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I dunno, people do more than enough crazy shit around storms as it is without bringing drugs into the equation. Although, maybe a little weed would tone down the adrenaline and actually improve behavior? :lmao:

Although, you just know the high AF guy would be the one going 20 MPH at the front of the conga line.

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

I dunno, people do more than enough crazy shit around storms as it is without bringing drugs into the equation. Although, maybe a little weed would tone down the adrenaline and actually improve behavior? :lmao:

Straight truth as long as your not gone to mars

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Chicago NWS

There are increasing concerns that isolated to scattered
thunderstorms develop a bit earlier in the afternoon along the
backdoor front/lake breeze boundary. Have nudged up the start time
of the thunder mention (VCTS) to 22Z for all terminals due to the
anticipated northwest to southeast orientation of the boundary.
There is a low chance (20 percent) that storms develop as early as
21Z over the Chicago metro terminals. There remains greater
confidence in a separate cluster or line of severe thunderstorms
that develops to our northwest and progress southeast across the
area during the evening hours. While severe weather is possible
with any storms that develop today, the more organized severe wind
threat would likely be tied to the evening convection.
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Someone is gonna pay for this. Exceptional thermos, adequate shear and a favorably oriented boundary suggesting an outside shot at a higher end MCS later today. Anecdotally, giant CAPE combined with very steep LLLRs (8.5-9.0) usually seems to correlate with strong downdraft potential. Additionally, with hodographs favorable for supercell development and LRs >7.5 throughout the column, would expect a large hail risk in the first 1-2 hours before upscale growth takes hold. 

 

One caveat could be the complete absence of a LLJ casting doubt in MCS maintenance potential, but that's something that's always confused me a little bit. There's no doubt a strong and coherent LLJ helps MCS maintenance/intensity, but how badly does an absent LLJ hurt? There are some very notable MCS cases that had zero LLJ to speak of.

 

 mesonet_1800.png

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8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not liking the HRRR trends of splitting southern Wisconsin to the north/south this evening. As of yesterday evening we were squarely in the bulls-eye on multiple runs, of multiple models. We hit the severe threat hard at work this morning, now we might not even get any rain in Madison.

The HRRR didn't handle yesterday well at all

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2 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I get off work, hit the weed pen, pop into this thread and discover how similar we all are. 
 

Hrrr was a big fail in Minnesota yesterday fyi. 

Frustrating, seeing as it's the only CAM that updates hourly. You'd think at some point during the day it would get a handle on things.

Edit: 19Z is more active for us. We'll wait and see, I guess.

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6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Frustrating, seeing as it's the only CAM that updates hourly. You'd think at some point during the day it would get a handle on things.

Edit: 19Z is more active for us. We'll wait and see, I guess.

It wasn’t even initializing with the ongoing convection last evening across central Minnesota. Head scratcher why the algorithms can’t figure that out. 

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Shwrs/stms moving in soon. Nothing major my way. Although yesterday, that stm that mostly passed just south of me put down golf ball hail on Hwy 61 near French River. A friend of mine got caught in it, and has some small dents on the roof n hood of his car. 

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Great writeup by Ricky on the flash flooding potential

The 12z HREF LPMM notably features some pockets of
3-5" of rain, with ensemble max hinting at upside potential being
5-7" amounts where repeated rounds of intense convection occur.
See WPC`s recent MPD for additional thoughts on this. We`re
looking at a decent chance of issuing a Flood Watch once
convective trends have shown their hand more conclusively.

 

 

 

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