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July 28th Severe Weather


CheeselandSkies
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9 hours ago, hlcater said:

Someone is gonna pay for this. Exceptional thermos, adequate shear and a favorably oriented boundary suggesting an outside shot at a higher end MCS later today. Anecdotally, giant CAPE combined with very steep LLLRs (8.5-9.0) usually seems to correlate with strong downdraft potential. Additionally, with hodographs favorable for supercell development and LRs >7.5 throughout the column, would expect a large hail risk in the first 1-2 hours before upscale growth takes hold. 

 

One caveat could be the complete absence of a LLJ casting doubt in MCS maintenance potential, but that's something that's always confused me a little bit. There's no doubt a strong and coherent LLJ helps MCS maintenance/intensity, but how badly does an absent LLJ hurt? There are some very notable MCS cases that had zero LLJ to speak of.

 

 mesonet_1800.png

Money money

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It was a nice storm here.  The worst wind was to my north where the line surged eastward.  I got 60+ mph from the initial outflow, which knocked out our internet.  I did not see any damage around my yard.  The outflow quickly pushed southward, so the rain was fairly progressive.  I received 0.69".  It's not the 2+ inches we need, but it's something.  I'd much rather have the training storms that set up over northern Illinois.

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7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Even by DTW where I live it was very loud last night. A lot of house shaking rumbles

Yea.  Here too.  They were like 10 minutes apart, but very loud and deep.  Storms lately have all had unusually heavy stratiform rainfall.

Its nice to finally see deep blue sky again today.  Hope it lasts.  I can’t believe how hazy and smokey its been lately.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Yea.  Here too.  They were like 10 minutes apart, but very loud and deep.  Storms lately have all had unusually heavy stratiform rainfall.

Its nice to finally see deep blue sky again today.  Hope it lasts.  I can’t believe how hazy and smokey its been lately.

Yeah that is all it was hear too with a grand total of a 1/2" of rain.  There was one line heading this way with some CG but 3 miles prior to hitting MBY then it all went silent. Howell got it.   Then the big rumbles 10 mins apart started.  Too much too early in WI, IL and IA for a great event in most of MI.  As usual SW MI got clipped and then the heavier storms hit lower counties into IN and OH.  Glad it was basically what I was expecting once I looked at radar before going to bed.  

 

The storms I got in 6 days of vacation in the UP were better than what I have seen around here.

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Pretty decent MCS pushing towards St. Louis. Shear's lacking, but it's tied to a MCV / cold pool and it has that "long-lived" look to it as well.

Still appears to be somewhat elevated now, but per the SPC mesoanalysis page for 0-3km CAPE, the stable layer has almost eroded with clear skies ahead of it and convective temps being reached. 

 

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