Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I fully expect to head to FireKeepers Casino in my typical Friday night fashion, drink 2-3 Crown Peach doubles, lose a few $$$ then on my way home hopefully be watching anvil-crawlers/constant lighting moving in from the west all to be finished off while sitting in the hot tub while it starts to storm. Also looks like the cold front won’t be moving through now until tomorrow morning, so kinda thinking we may be in for a pretty quiet afternoon and evening. 100% cloudy here at the moment with just the slightest trace of sun poking through - definitely not going to make it into the 90’s today, but with the later timing of the front the severe threat is kinda meh around here anyway. Just hoping for some good rollers and lots of lightning. Edit* Peaked at the 14z HRRR and chuckled.. shows a nasty local bow pushing through at around 80mph with large hail at 3am - sweet Looks pretty wicked in northern Illinois around 9PM though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 saddest top of page in a while 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: That’s what I do when I’m at home even throw in a real leaf once in awhile. I drive a company vehicle so I want smell down to 0 any way possible inside my truck and at the hotel. Otherwise I’d bring my pack down and grab some rellos or my papers. Hotels are perfect for rosin. You guys have persy sauce out there yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Author Share Posted July 28, 2023 I was gonna chase some storms...but I chased something else instead. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Hotels are perfect for rosin. You guys have persy sauce out there yet? Yeah we got quite a few over here now. Not that one it particular from what I’ve seen. My nectar collector broke a month ago or else I’d be bringing my GMO hash rosin. Only have my rig at home right now but I don’t want to break my expensive piece haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I was gonna chase some storms...but I chased something else instead. Listening to that song now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I was gonna chase some storms...but I chased something else instead. One day I'll pay you to pick me up and chase while I glaze over in the passenger seat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: One day I'll pay you to pick me up and chase while I glaze over in the passenger seat The Stoner Chasers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: The Stoner Chasers Honestly if I had people to do it with that I could actually trust I would do it. Sounds like a fucking stellar time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Just now, Malacka11 said: Honestly if I had people to do it with that I could actually trust I would do it. Sounds like a fucking stellar time. And this is exactly why this is the best sub forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Author Share Posted July 28, 2023 I dunno, people do more than enough crazy shit around storms as it is without bringing drugs into the equation. Although, maybe a little weed would tone down the adrenaline and actually improve behavior? Although, you just know the high AF guy would be the one going 20 MPH at the front of the conga line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Just now, CheeselandSkies said: I dunno, people do more than enough crazy shit around storms as it is without bringing drugs into the equation. Although, maybe a little weed would tone down the adrenaline and actually improve behavior? Straight truth as long as your not gone to mars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Chicago NWS There are increasing concerns that isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop a bit earlier in the afternoon along the backdoor front/lake breeze boundary. Have nudged up the start time of the thunder mention (VCTS) to 22Z for all terminals due to the anticipated northwest to southeast orientation of the boundary. There is a low chance (20 percent) that storms develop as early as 21Z over the Chicago metro terminals. There remains greater confidence in a separate cluster or line of severe thunderstorms that develops to our northwest and progress southeast across the area during the evening hours. While severe weather is possible with any storms that develop today, the more organized severe wind threat would likely be tied to the evening convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Someone is gonna pay for this. Exceptional thermos, adequate shear and a favorably oriented boundary suggesting an outside shot at a higher end MCS later today. Anecdotally, giant CAPE combined with very steep LLLRs (8.5-9.0) usually seems to correlate with strong downdraft potential. Additionally, with hodographs favorable for supercell development and LRs >7.5 throughout the column, would expect a large hail risk in the first 1-2 hours before upscale growth takes hold. One caveat could be the complete absence of a LLJ casting doubt in MCS maintenance potential, but that's something that's always confused me a little bit. There's no doubt a strong and coherent LLJ helps MCS maintenance/intensity, but how badly does an absent LLJ hurt? There are some very notable MCS cases that had zero LLJ to speak of. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: saddest top of page in a while you should see what I do for work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Work on Jonger's fish stick assembly line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Author Share Posted July 28, 2023 Not liking the HRRR trends of splitting southern Wisconsin to the north/south this evening. As of yesterday evening we were squarely in the bulls-eye on multiple runs, of multiple models. We hit the severe threat hard at work this morning, now we might not even get any rain in Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Not liking the HRRR trends of splitting southern Wisconsin to the north/south this evening. As of yesterday evening we were squarely in the bulls-eye on multiple runs, of multiple models. We hit the severe threat hard at work this morning, now we might not even get any rain in Madison. The HRRR didn't handle yesterday well at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 lake front def gonna pop around here before the main show gets a chance east winds in mke, won't be long now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 North moving boundary extremely evident on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Looks like some initiation trying to get going in IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Decent-looking appetizer cell has popped up over downtown Detroit. I might even go severe soon. EDIT: Has expanded to engulf much of the east side now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I get off work, hit the weed pen, pop into this thread and discover how similar we all are. Hrrr was a big fail in Minnesota yesterday fyi. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Author Share Posted July 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I get off work, hit the weed pen, pop into this thread and discover how similar we all are. Hrrr was a big fail in Minnesota yesterday fyi. Frustrating, seeing as it's the only CAM that updates hourly. You'd think at some point during the day it would get a handle on things. Edit: 19Z is more active for us. We'll wait and see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Don’t love the billow clouds just to our NW but can see some nice ACCAS out my window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Lake breeze now evident along with the outflow. Once these collide... Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Frustrating, seeing as it's the only CAM that updates hourly. You'd think at some point during the day it would get a handle on things. Edit: 19Z is more active for us. We'll wait and see, I guess. It wasn’t even initializing with the ongoing convection last evening across central Minnesota. Head scratcher why the algorithms can’t figure that out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Shwrs/stms moving in soon. Nothing major my way. Although yesterday, that stm that mostly passed just south of me put down golf ball hail on Hwy 61 near French River. A friend of mine got caught in it, and has some small dents on the roof n hood of his car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Great writeup by Ricky on the flash flooding potential The 12z HREF LPMM notably features some pockets of 3-5" of rain, with ensemble max hinting at upside potential being 5-7" amounts where repeated rounds of intense convection occur. See WPC`s recent MPD for additional thoughts on this. We`re looking at a decent chance of issuing a Flood Watch once convective trends have shown their hand more conclusively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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