Roger Smith Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Predict temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline 06z Tuesday August 1st. No assembly required. State and local taxes may apply. Co-pay available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 -0.3 _ -0.8 _ -0.6 __ -0.6 _ -0.4 _ -0.3 ___ -0.5 _ -0.6 _ +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 Is layaway available? DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 -0.5 1.5 -0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.2 1.0 0.8 -0.4 2.0 1.7 -0.2 2.2 2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA +1.4 NYC +1.4 BOS +1.5 ORD + 0.8 ATL +1.0 IAH +2.4 DEN +2.4 PHX 2.5 SEA +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 2.0 2.4 0.7 2.0 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA -0.3 NYC -0.2 BOS -0.2 ORD -0.1 ATL -0.4 IAH +0.6 DEN +1.1 PHX +1.3 SEA +1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 1.6 0.2 1.3 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 DCA: -1.1 NYC: -1.3 BOS: -1.9 ORD: -0.7 ATL: +1.8 IAH: +2.2 DEN: -0.8 PHX: +2.1 SEA: +1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 DCA +1.0 NYC +1.0 BOS +1.0 ORD + 1.0 ATL +1.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +3.0 PHX +3.5 SEA +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 DCA +0.4 NYC +0.1 BOS +0.3 ORD +0.1 ATL +1.6 IAH +1.8 DEN +0.4 PHX +1.5 SEA +1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 +1.5 __ +1.5 __ +1.7 __ +2.0 __ +2.2 __ +3.0 __ -2.0 __ +3.5 __ +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.2___ +1___+1____ +1.5___+1.3___+2____-1.2___ +2.5___ +1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Table of forecasts for August 2023 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _-0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4 Persistence scores 696 against our consensus but PHX adds zero to that total; if persistence scored 900, consensus would score 717 as it would score 21 (and probably higher in a max 60). All other scores would be the same either way. (scores are 100 minus 2x 0.1 errors). Some different possibilities exist in the range between 2.1 and 7.2 for Phoenix, an outcome of 7.2 this month would give 3.5 a score of 49 so max 60 would come into effect. An outcome of 5.5 would give 3.5 a score of 65 and would give persistence a score of 71. It could be said then, our consensus has not strayed far from persistence except that the extreme anomaly at PHX is not expected to repeat. Our closest call to a repeat is +3.5 from RJay and Roger Smith. Seasonal max values will be imported into this thread in a few days. Updated seasonal max to date (Aug 26 2023) _ 97 _ 93 _ 91 ___100 __ 99 __ 109 _____ 99 __ 119 __ 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 Updates and projections to end of month from GFS guidance ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA (15th) ____ (anom 14d) ____ -1.6 __-1.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.1 _+1.4 _+5.9 ___-3.1 _ +5.1 _ +3.2 (22nd) ___ (anom 21d) ____ -1.2 __-1.1*___-0.5 ___-0.2 _+1.1 _+6.0 ___+0.3 _ +3.9 _ +3.6 * adjusted for missing data 21st. (15th) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___+0.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 ___-1.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 (22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+4.0 ___+2.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 __-1.0 ___-1.0 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+2.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.5 (31st) ___ (anomalies) _____-0.7 _ -1.1 __ -0.9 ___ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __ +1.3 _ +4.4 _ +2.5 current anomalies in last entry above are now confirmed values. (seasonal max updates in previous post ... IAH, DEN and SEA are now at higher values) (15th _ Projection based on assumptions of near average or slightly above normal second half of August in east, continued heat in west, finally overturning to some extent the localized negative trend at DEN). (22nd _ Projections now based on continued -1 to -2 trends in east, +2 to +4 further west, resuming also in Phoenix once the cloud from the recent hurricane clears away). (31st _ 1st Sep) ... Scoring being updated to final by Friday Sep 1st mid-day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 16, 2023 Author Share Posted August 16, 2023 Summer Maximum Contest __ Update moved to September contest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 23, 2023 Author Share Posted August 23, 2023 Final scoring for August 2023 Scoring estimates based on latest posted provisional anomalies. DCA not adjusted yet. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL __ anomalies _______________ -0.7 _-1.1 _-0.9 ___ _ _ +0.5_+2.4_+5.8 __ __ __ __ __ +1.3_+4.4_+2.5 DonSutherland1 _____________ 84 _ 88 _ 92 __ 264 __ 94 _ 92 _ 40 __ 226_ 490 _ 88 _ 52 _ 92 __ 232 ___722 wxdude64 ___________________92 _ 96 _ 80 __ 268 __ 76 _ 88 _ 36 __ 200 _ 468 _ 58 _ 54 _ 86 __ 198 ___ 666 hudsonvalley21 ______________78 _ 76 _ 76 __ 230 __ 92 _ 84 _ 28 __ 204 _ 434 _ 82 _ 42 _ 84 __ 208 ___ 642 RJay ________________________ 66 _ 58 _ 62 __ 186 __ 90 _ 72 _ 62 __ 224 _ 410 _ 66 _ 82 _ 70 __ 218 ___ 628 ___ Consensus ______________ 72 _ 66 _ 74 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 32 ___ 202 _ 414 _ 74 _ 54 _ 84 __ 212 ___ 626 Tom _________________________ 92 _ 82 _ 86 __ 260 __ 88 _ 44 _ 06 __ 138 _ 398 _ 96 _ 38 _ 78 __ 212 ___ 610 RodneyS ____________________ 90 _ 82 _ 94 __ 266 __ 98 _ 44 _ 24 __ 166 _ 432 _ 78 _ 38 _ 58 __ 174 ___ 606 wxallannj ____________________ 62 _ 58 _ 66 __ 186 __ 82 _ 92 _ 26 __ 200 _ 386 _ 70 _ 56 _ 92 __ 218 ___ 604 BKViking ____________________ 58 _ 50 _ 52 __ 160 __ 94 _ 72 _ 40 __ 206 _ 364 _ 78 _ 62 _ 94__ 234 ___ 600 Roger Smith ________________ 56 _ 48 _ 48 __ 152 __ 70 _ 96 _ 52 __ 218 _ 370 _ 34 _ 82 _ 90__ 206 ___ 576 so_whats_happening ________62 _ 58 _ 62 __ 182 __ 80 _ 78 _ 32 __ 190 _ 372 _ 50 _ 62 _ 76 __ 188 ___ 560 Rhino16 _____________________ 92 _ 94 _ 94 __280 __ 78 _ 44 _ 00 __ 122 _ 402 _ 64 _ 00 _ 64 __ 128 ___ 530 ___ Normal ___________________86 _ 78 _ 82 __ 246 __ 90 _ 52 _ 00 __ 142 _ 388 __74 _ 12 _ 50 __ 136 ___ 524 Scotty Lightning ____________ 66 _ 58 _ 72 __ 196 __ 90 _ 72 _ 12 ___ 174 _ 370 _ 64 _ 42 _ 40 __ 146 ___ 516 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ _ persistence (July anoms) _ 74 _ 48 _ 56 __ 178 __ 96 _ 96 _ 46 __ 238 _ 416 __ 50 _ 44 _ 78 __ 172 ___ 588 ==================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ (-0.7) _ wxdude64 at -1.1 and Tom, Rhino16 at -0.3 all share a win as RodneyS at -1.2 takes a loss. NYC _ (-1.1) _ wxdude64 at -1.3 has a win as he took a narrow lead over Rhino16 at -0.8 (not a loss situation). BOS _ (-0.9) _ wxdude64 (-1.9) takes a loss and Rhino16, RodneyS (-0.6) share a win. ORD _ At +0.5, the outcome does not qualify as extreme. ATL _ (+2.4) _ Roger Smith at +2.2 has a win. IAH _ (+5.8) _ A win for RJay (+3.5). DEN _ (+1.3) the outcome does not qualify as extreme, third highest forecast was high score. PHX _ (+4.4) is a shared win for RJay and Roger Smith at +3.5. SEA _ (+2.5) is a win for BKViking at +2.2, and by a narrow margin, a loss for wxallannj (+2.9) ___________________________________________________ (forecasts) FORECASTER ________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _SEA Roger Smith __________________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.7 __ +2.0 _+2.2 _+3.0 __ -2.0 _+3.5 _+2.0 BKViking ______________________+1.4 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 so_whats_happening __________+1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _+1.3 _+2.0 __ -1.2 _+2.5 _+1.3 wxallannj ______________________+1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ -0.4 _+2.0 _+1.7 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+2.9 RJay __________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _+3.5 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning ______________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ -0.5 _+1.5 _-0.5 ___ Consensus ________________+0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __+0.2_+1.2 _+2.0 ____0.0 _+2.1 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 __+0.1 _+1.6 _+1.8 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.7 DonSutherland1 ______________ +0.1 _-0.5 _-0.5 __ +0.2 _+2.0_+2.4 ___+0.7 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Tom __________________________ -0.3 _-0.2 _-0.2 ___-0.1 _ -0.4 _+0.6 __ +1.1 _ +1.3 _+1.4 Rhino16 _______________________-0.3 _-0.8 _-0.6 ___ -0.6 _-0.4 _-0.3 __ -0.5 _-0.6 _+0.7 wxdude64 ____________________-1.1 _ -1.3 _ -1.9 ___ -0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 __ -0.8 _+2.1 _+1.8 RodneyS ______________________-1.2 _-0.2 _-0.6 ___+0.4 _-0.4 _+1.6 __+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.4 ______________________________ _ _ _ _ warmest and coolest forecasts color coded; all sets include some lower than Normal. This month I will score persistence (July anomalies) ... those are shown below ____ persistence ______________ +0.6 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___+0.3 _+2.2 _+2.7 __ -1.2 _+7.2 _+1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Heading out of town today, so here are my picks for the month of Sept. DCA: -0.2 NYC: -0.5 BOS: -0.6 ORD: -0.3 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +1.2 DEN: +1.4 PHX: +2.1 SEA: +0.3 Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 === === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JANUARY - AUGUST 2023 ---- >>>> === === ... now fully updated for August scoring and data ... Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. Scoring ranks mainly unchanged in July except for Tom moving past Roger Smith into 9th. Some margins have changed. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS DonSutherland1 ___________ 516 _496 _ 540 __1552 __598 _602 _508 __1708__3260 __539 _462 _612 __1613 ____4873 RJay _______________________496 _502 _ 493 __1491 __ 615 _526 _538__ 1679 __3170 __407 _497 _ 611 __1515 ____ 4685 wxallannj __________________487 _498 _ 523 __1508 __ 637 _570 _446__ 1653 __3161 __499 _480 _506 __1485 ____4646 ___ Consensus _____________475 _472 _ 529 __1476__ 609 _498 _487 __1594 __3070 _ 455 _451 _606 __1512 ____4582 hudsonvalley21 ____________489 _484 _ 553 __1526 __ 618 _509 _465 __1592 __3118 __434 _392 _617 __1443 ____4561 wxdude64 _________________490 _483 _474 __1447 __ 493 _542 _440 __1475 __2922 __549 _434 _572 __1555 ____4477 RodneyS __________________ 486 _472 _516 __1474 __ 447 _439 _502 __1388 __2862 _ 525 _ 466 _ 582 __1573___ 4435 BKViking ___________________468 _452 _495 __1415 __ 571 _486 _501 __1558 __2973 __ 401 _ 392 _506 __1299 ____4272 Scotty Lightning ___________407 _424 _484 __1315 __ 559 _427 _446 __1432 __2747 __ 396 _330 _456 __ 1182 ____3929 ... pro-rated scores are added in brackets for most below this point in the table ... ... ... ... Tom's unimproved score is now a bit ahead of mine and close to Scotty L ... ... ... ... Tom's pro-rated score compares to about 5th-6th places above in the scoring table. Tom (7/8) __________________449 _436 _459 __1344 __434 _406 _426 __1266 __2610 __434 _342 _507 __1283 _____3893 (4450) Roger Smith _______________ 418 _360 _388 __1166 __453 _391 _ 474 __1318 __ 2484 __355 _408 _592 __ 1355 ____ 3839 ___ Normal _________________378 _384 _424 __1186 __500 _410 _348 __1258 __ 2444 __446 _ 322 _466 __1234 ____ 3678 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________304 _322 _344 __ 970 __388 _332 _216 ___936 __1906 __ 273 _212 _352 ___ 837 ____ 2743 (4388) so_whats_happening (4/8) _186 _184 _ 242 __ 612 __ 249 _183 _212 ___644 __1256 __ 172 _230 _294 ___ 696 ____1952 (3904) Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 ___ 716 ____1886 (5030) Terpeast (1/8) ______________ 62 _ 44 _ 34 ____ 140 ___84 _ 86 _ 26 ____ 196 ___ 336 __ 10 __ 76 __ 60 __ 146 ____ 482 (3956) rainsucks (1/8) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 (3648) - - - - - ___ Persistence ____________361 _302 _404 __1067 __474 _437 _468 __1379 ___2446 __242 _388 _448 __1078 ____3524 _______________________________________________________ Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) ^ shared with two other forecasters for one month (subject to change for August) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*___1* ___ 0____3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___1 ____3 _ Jan,Mar,Aug RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___3**___4 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 0___ 3**___1 ___0 ____0 wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____2**___1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May(t),July ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 ____________1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May(t) wxdude64 _________________1^____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS __________________2*____ 1 ____ 2*___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____1 _ Jun BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ____0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___2 ___ 1 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___1 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (7/8) _________________ 2*^___0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___0 ____2**___ 1 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 Rhino16 (5/8) ______________ 1^____ 0 ____ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (4/8) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/8) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Terpeast (1/8) _____________ 1*____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ____0 rainsucks (1/8) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 60 of 72 forecasts qualify, 34 of them for warmest, and 26 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2, June 1-8, July 4-2, Aug 4-3 ... 15 of 60 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May _ Jun _Jul _Aug ___ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 1-0 _4-0 _2*-0 _ 17-1 ______15.0 - 1.0 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 _ 4*-1 _0-1 _ 1*-1 __10-3 ______ 9.0 - 2 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 9-3 ______ 8.5 - 3.0 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ --- ___ 8-1 ______ 7.5 - 1.0 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*_ 0-0 _1*-0 _ 2*-0__ 6-1 ______ 4.5 - 0.5 Scotty Lightning _____ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _0-0 _ --- ___4-2 ______ 4.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 4-1 _______ 4.0 - 1.0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-1 ___ 4-3 ______ 3.0 - 2.0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __1*-1 _2^-1 __ 4-2 ______ 2.83 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ --- ___ 3-0 ______ 2.0 - 0.0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _1^-0___ 3-0 ______ 1.83 - 0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 Rhino16 _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- -- _-- - _ ---- _ --- _ 2*^-0___2-0 ______ 0.83-0 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - _ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 Terpeast _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_ -- --_ -- - _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - _ 0-0 __ --- _ --- __ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1 =========================================== Four seasons scoring update will follow in a day or two, for summer segment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 2, 2023 Author Share Posted September 2, 2023 Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Summer segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3 contests entered. ... DonS now in the lead but any of the chase pack have a chance to win this contest if they can take ten points for autumn (Don needs just a second place seven points to guarantee a win). Tie would go to the person with highest minimum seasonal points, and if that does not determine an outcome, second lowest points etc -- at this point DonS and wxallannj have "high min" of 5 seasonal points. FORECASTER _______ Winter __Points __ Spring __Points ___JUN__JUL__AUG ___TOTAL__Summer Pts _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___TOTAL points DonSutherland1 ________ 1722 ___ 6 ______ 1761 ___ 5 ______616 __ 706 __ 722 ____ 2044 ____10 _____ 21 wxallannj _______________ 1699 ___ 5 ______ 1765 ___ 6 _____ 504 __ 746 __ 604 ____ 1854 _____6 _____ 17 RJay ____________________1879 ___ 10 _____ 1761 ____ 5 _____ 395 __ 710 __ 628 ____ 1733 _____ 1 _____ 16 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1675 ___ 4 _______1824 ___ 10 _____ 434 __ 680 __ 642 ____1756 _____ 2 _____ 16 ___ Consensus _________ 1682 __ 4.3 _____ 1772 ___ 6.9 ____ 514 __ 689 __ 626 ____ 1829 ____ 4.8_____16.0 RodneyS _______________ 1760 ____7 ______ 1543 ____ 1 _____ 636 __ 630 __ 606 ____ 1872 _____ 7 _____ 15 wxdude64 ______________1518 ____ 1 ______ 1773 ____ 7 _____ 482 __ 684 __ 666 ____ 1832 _____ 5 _____ 13 Tom ___________________ 1545 ____ 1 _______ 1281 ____ 1 _____ 572 __ 636 __ 610 ____ 1818 ______4 ______ 6 Roger Smith ___________ 1626 ___ 3 _______ 1409 ____ 1 _____ 280 __ 604 __ 576 ____ 1460 _____ 1 ______ 5 Scotty Lightning _______ 1147 ___ 1 ________ 1676 ____ 3 _____ 450 __ 676 __ 516 ____ 1642 _____ 1 ______ 5 BKViking ______________ 1576 ____ 1 ________ 1580 ____1 _____ 502 __ 702 __ 600 ____ 1804 _____ 3 ______ 5 so_whats_happening __ 1620 ___ 2 _______ -- -- _____0 _____ 464 __ ----__ 560 ____ 1024 _____ 1 ______ 3 Rhino 16 _______________ -- -- ___ 0 ________ 1675 ____2 _____ 538 __ ---- __ 530 ____ 1068 _____ 1 ______ 3 ___ Normal ____________ 1076 ____ 1 ________ 1570 ____1 ______ 582 __ 576 __ 524 ____ 1682 _____ 1 ______ 3 StormchaserChuck ____674 (1/3)_0 _______ 1212 ____ 1 _____ -- -- __ -- -- __ -- -- ___ -- -- _____ 0 ______ 1 _______________________________________________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now