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Thursday, July 27, 2023 Severe Weather Potential


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Watch coming per SPC

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

   Areas affected...NY Hudson Valley into parts of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271505Z - 271700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will
   increase later today. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or
   early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across
   northern NY this morning, and will approach northern New England by
   early afternoon. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface
   low will move across northern NY/VT, as rich low-level moisture
   streams northeastward into a larger portion of New England. The 13
   UTC sounding from SUNY-Albany depicts a favorable wind profile for
   organized convection, with rather strong midlevel flow and
   deep-layer shear, but also very weak midlevel lapse rates. 

   Despite the weak lapse rates and rather widespread cloudiness,
   modest boundary-layer heating/moistening and ascent attendant to the
   shortwave trough will likely support deepening convection by early
   afternoon across the region. With weak instability, it may take some
   time for storms to mature, but a few supercells and organized
   clusters may evolve with time. Rather strong low-level flow will
   support a damaging-wind threat, especially where somewhat stronger
   heating can occur. Also, while the strongest low-level shear/SRH
   will tend to be somewhat displaced from the more favorable
   instability, a tornado or two will also be possible, given the
   potential for supercells within a very moist and favorably shear
   environment. 

   Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon in order
   to address these threats.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
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Cloudy with low 70s says little/no severe here.  Light RA began about 10:45, has barely gotten the ground wet.  Brightest echoes look to be starting the north-south split that leaves Rt 2 in between.  Back end of precip maybe 2-3 hours away, after which the swamp arrives - forecast high is 10° above the current temp.  Soon enough to gin up something interesting?

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Cloudy with low 70s says little/no severe here.  Light RA began about 10:45, has barely gotten the ground wet.  Brightest echoes look to be starting the north-south split that leaves Rt 2 in between.  Back end of precip maybe 2-3 hours away, after which the swamp arrives.  Soon enough to gin up something interesting?

I'm having my doubts we destabilize enough for any severe later today, The sun looks like its going to be limited.

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