Cyclone-68 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Hard to get a big severe day without an EML, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Hard to get a big severe day without an EML, no? It is but it also depends on what the definition of "big is". It's very difficult to get higher end severe weather (winds > 60 knots, hail > 2'' in diameter, EF2+ tornadoes) without an EML. We can get widespread severe weather (though many would argue most of the reports are just weak/damaged trees) without an EML. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 tomorrow looks really legit for parts of NE. everything is there for potentially significant tornadoes into MA and even into CT / RI... good forcing from the S/W passing to the north, notable LLJ with strong speed and directional shear, 0-1 SRH over 200, 3CAPE over 100, very low LCLs, and more than enough CAPE with these dynamics. you don't get these setups too often around here during mid-summer favoring damaging wind with more dry air aloft once into the HV / NNJ, but still nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Sort of an o/t comment ... ... I've never seen so many thunderstorm days PRECEDING a warmup, in this geographical region, as I have seen this summer. In fact, the frequency of that sort of thing begin increasing three summers ago. More this summer. Now, we're clocking strongly worded Slights out of Norman and the next day the heat and humidity is there. It's something I always used to count on at this latitude, back in my Michigan years and here in New England. Siggy storm days always preceded cooler and less humid days. That's an interesting shift in synoptic behavior, I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Sort of an o/t comment ... ... I've never seen so many thunderstorm days PRECEDING a warmup, in this geographical region, as I have seen this summer. In fact, the frequency of that sort of thing begin increasing three summers ago but this time, we're clocking slghts out of Norman and the next day the heat and humidity is there. It's something I always used to count on at this latitude, back in my Michigan years and here in New England. Siggy storm days always preceded cooler and less humid days. That's an interesting shift in synoptic behavior, I think. I 100% agree on this and it’s something I have thought of too. We have had multiple solid Convective events where we got warmer and more humid behind the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Also, may not be the time or place but don't sell that bully cold front short on Saturday - ... that looks like higher bulk shear to me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also, may not be the time or place but don't sell that bully cold front short on Saturday - ... that looks like higher bulk shear to me. yeah Saturday looks like no joke either as the vort rounds the ridge... that is a lot of shear. on the GFS, no less. NAM has a Dixie Alley hodo haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I’ll believe it when I see em coming in from the west tomorrow…severe underperforms 90% of the time here in SNE. We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll believe it when I see em coming in from the west tomorrow…severe underperforms 90% of the time here in SNE. We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow? Well yeah, in any given backyard you can probably bank on fail out here but the setup looks good, especially north. I’m lukewarm overall, but tomorrow and Saturday are legit on paper. Tomorrow feels a little conditional to me based on what kind of cloud debris and capping we get down here, but it looks fine generally 18 hours or so out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Well yeah, in any given backyard you can probably bank on fail out here but the setup looks good, especially north. I’m lukewarm overall, but tomorrow and Saturday are legit on paper. Tomorrow feels a little conditional to me based on what kind of cloud debris and capping we get down here, but it looks fine generally 18 hours or so out. That’s mostly my point…looks better north. So not thinking much happens in CT. But as I said, we’ll see how much sun we get tomorrow, and see how things come together? Looking good on paper fails more than not here with severe. But I’ll side on it not being a big deal in most of CT as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 We wild! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s mostly my point…looks better north. So not thinking much happens in CT. But as I said, we’ll see how much sun we get tomorrow, and see how things come together? Looking good on paper fails more than not here with severe. But I’ll side on it not being a big deal in most of CT as of now. Wiz swinging a baseball bat through his monitor at 2pm tomorrow as we get gusty showers in CT and Greenfield gets an EF-3 ripping through forest and farmland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 whole towns wiped tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 They'll be wiping alright. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wiz swinging a baseball bat through his monitor at 2pm tomorrow as we get gusty showers in CT and Greenfield gets an EF-3 ripping through forest and farmland. we can hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Looking at things tonight, I’m a little more intrigued for tomorrow. Let’s see what the setup looks like in the morning. Agree with wiz that we could see an enhanced risk somewhere tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looking at things tonight, I’m a little more intrigued for tomorrow. Let’s see what the setup looks like in the morning. Agree with wiz that we could see an enhanced risk somewhere tomorrow. if we can get the clouds to clear out early we should be good to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: if we can get the clouds to clear out early we should be good to go So many times though the clouds hang tough and cap the heating/destabilizing in these set ups…Will tomorrow be any different? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I've just been enjoying having thunderstorms regularly again. For years it's felt like the best storms happened in winter. Summer finally feels more like I remember as a boy. Let's get a few more bangers in here tomorrow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I've just been enjoying having thunderstorms regularly again. For years it's felt like the best storms happened in winter. Summer finally feels more like I remember as a boy. Let's get a few more bangers in here tomorrow! Agreed. Ya we’ve been gettin em this summer thats for sure…last few years/summers it was lean for certain in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Agreed. Ya we’ve been gettin em this summer thats for sure…last few years/summers it was lean for certain in SNE. The nighttime ones have been great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 The soundings on the NAM and Euro remain extremely impressive tomorrow across SNE. HRRR a bit less so but we certainly could see a few spinners and maybe even a sig tor if things break right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Feel like the low magnitude of deep layer shear and iffy mid-level lapse rates/lack of an EML are going to curb this a fair amount. Would assume messy storm mode. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Fish is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova737 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Not expecting anything here. All the storms that seem like they might maintain their severe status either fall apart completely by the time they reach Providence or miss us entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 44 minutes ago, andyhb said: Feel like the low magnitude of deep layer shear and iffy mid-level lapse rates/lack of an EML are going to curb this a fair amount. Would assume messy storm mode. Especially the 18z/00z runs so far have really done a number on the lapse rates. Interestingly lots of 0-3km CAPE but really meager 500-700hpa lapse rates. Deep layer shear isn't awful... particularly pre-18z... with 30-40 knots. We'll see for sure... curious to see how the morning convection shakes out and if we can get a bit of discrete action ahead of the main show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Scoot channeling Lakes Region severe of yore in Center Harbor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Scoot channeling Lakes Region severe of yore in Center Harbor. We here and ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 BDL & HFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Whoa To emphasize: this is a severe weather setting which is uncommonly experienced in Southern New England, and the potential for brief tornadoes and straight-line wind damage is a credible risk in environments like this one. If you do have plans outdoors, it`s vital to keep an eye to the sky and to have multiple ways to receive later statements, and that`s especially true in western interior sections of MA and CT where the greatest potential for severe weather exists. Without hyperbole, and while there are uncertainties, this type of thunderstorm environment is uncommonly if rarely seen in Southern New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now