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Thursday, July 27, 2023 Severe Weather Potential


weatherwiz
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25 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I really hope Saturday comes through because it might be a while or even next summer before we get an opportunity again 

The way this spring/summer is going…the rain/storms are finding us this summer.  It won’t be too long. Late last week they said we were in for a nice dry stretch…then Tuesday and today happened lol. 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The way this spring/summer is going…the rain/storms are finding us this summer.  It won’t be too long. Late last week they said we were in for a nice dry stretch…then Tuesday and today happened lol. 

Exactly. The summer has blown.

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25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The way this spring/summer is going…the rain/storms are finding us this summer.  It won’t be too long. Late last week they said we were in for a nice dry stretch…then Tuesday and today happened lol. 

Don’t tell Ginx or Freak or Kooky . They’ve penciled in dry and chilly thru week 2

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t tell Ginx or Freak or Kooky . They’ve penciled in dry and chilly thru week 2

Ha, I never said dry. I do think we are in for a change from the past several weeks. The final outcome 10+ days away may be the same as we’ve been seeing in the end, but the long wave pattern is going to shuffle a bit. There’s several days next week that definitely won’t feel like the past 3-4 weeks.

Its also literally mid-summer climo so of course it is going to get humid and hot again. We are in the middle of it.

 

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41 minutes ago, andyhb said:

No EML = no bueno in the Northeast. Banacos and Ekster 2010, all.

Based on New England history, a successful SVR event is one weak TOR and some isolated straightline wind damage. We tend to enjoy the tracking more than the outcome… There were a lot of clouds around today; if today dawned clear and there was the same atmospheric profile?  Things might have gone off.  Can’t discount the amount of cloudiness.  Some brief sunshine doesn’t really get the job done, compared to full insolation from sunrise. 

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Based on New England history, a successful SVR event is one weak TOR and some isolated straightline wind damage. We tend to enjoy the tracking more than the outcome… 

Bingo . New England severe is basically a joke compared to anything west or Sw of us and East of Rockies 

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48 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bingo . New England severe is basically a joke compared to anything west or Sw of us and East of Rockies 

The monsoon storms in AZ have been more impressive than anything I've seen here. Last July a complex ripped through from SE to NW with 80mph gusts, knocked the power out for 18 hours. Helps when it's over 100 degrees out ahead of the storm.

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10 hours ago, andyhb said:

No EML = no bueno in the Northeast. Banacos and Ekster 2010, all.

Well this is true, but to a degree. An EML is important for higher end significant severe. An EML is not needed for severe weather. There seems to be a stigma around these parts on this board that when talking about convection or severe weather potential in New England it means

1) Every town is going to get damage 

2) Every poster is going to see a thunderstorm

It is all about understanding of the setup and expectations. All in all, yesterday performed exactly as it should have given the setup. There was a concentrated swath of damaging winds and there was a tornado. Yesterday was never about being a higher-end setup or about significant severe. The moderate CAPE and unseasonably strong shear indicated the potential for severe weather was higher than usual within the region, but it was of course below thresholds for significant severe. If anyone was expecting widespread significant severe yesterday then that is on them and their lack of understanding about the setup. 

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