Thursday, July 27, 2023 Severe Weather Potential

[dendrite]

GYX

Quote

Thunderstorms: Not much of a change on thunder chances today
from previous shifts. Kinematic parameter space is very
favorable for stronger storms to produce severe wind gusts late
this morning through the afternoon. Convection may develop on
the heels of 0-1km shear values approaching 30kt, with deeper
0-6km shear through central Maine of 50kt. Perhaps the question
is more of the organization of the wave and its surface feature.
Mixed storm modes are likely, with linear segments the most
likely to harbor these damaging gusts. These could form along a
triple point low swinging into western NH mid afternoon,
following up on warm frontal passage. Bowing segments that
exhibit balanced or shear dominant modes will have plenty of
birth for line normal shear vectors to fall between, thus
spinups amid stronger QLCS, should it develop, will be possible.

Tornado threat has certainly been of interest of late, and
still remains a top watch for the day. This threat may be
realized late morning/early afternoon after warm front passage
and before low moves through. Some hires guidance depicts
discrete single cells developing in this brief warm sector.
These arguably have the more favorable hodographs of the day,
but timing will be key if these are to take advantage of the
escaping low level shear max. Current thinking is these storms
will be in a lower CAPE environment (as daytime heating builds
under any cloud cover), but high shear scenario. SHERB values do
approach 1 in a corridor from Manchester to Ossipee, NH into
the Maine Lakes Region by 2pm. This area also would be along the
CAPE gradient, which falls off quite rapidly to the north.

 

[BrianW]

Upton liking Southern CT for tornado development.

A line of thunderstorms entering N central PA is fcst to weaken by CAM`s as it moves east into the Appalachians, followed by a new line of storms developing this afternoon over ern PA and central NY and moving SE into the area. Expect this line to move through from about 17Z-23Z, crossing the NYC metro area between 19Z-21Z. Main threat from these storms will be damaging winds via large MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg per NAM, momentum transfer of 40-kt mid level flow from aloft, also via steep low level lapse rates and inverted-V soundings. There is also a low- end tornado threat inland, more so across southern CT where models show potential for enhanced lift beneath the right entrance region of an upper jet streak to the north, while hodographs show veering low level profiles supportive of rotating storms during the afternoon, and where low level vorticity could be locally enhanced via channeling of sfc wind up river valleys and via possible sea breeze interaction closer to the CT coastline.

[UnitedWx]

10 hours ago, dryslot said:

They'll be wiping all right.

Swamp ass weather?

[UnitedWx]

9 hours ago, CT Rain said:

The soundings on the NAM and Euro remain extremely impressive tomorrow across SNE. HRRR a bit less so but we certainly could see a few spinners and maybe even a sig tor if things break right.

LLJ amped vs levels above FTW?

[wxeyeNH]

Upgrade to moderate? With what you all are honking sounds like it would happen later

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Upgrade to moderate? With what you all are honking sounds like it would happen later

unless we clear out we meh

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

unless we clear out we meh

It’s clear 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Upgrade to moderate? With what you all are honking sounds like it would happen later

The kind of talk from the forecast offices usually makes me want to run in the opposite direction, but honest to God even on my trips out to the Midwest people are watching and waiting to see if severe ingredients come together for an active day. 

We’ll just have to watch the trends I guess. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s clear 

cloudy here  did see some low level clouds cruising by though

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

cloudy here  did see some low level clouds cruising by though

Just high and mid level stuff. Plenty of solar insolation out there today .

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just high and mid level stuff. Plenty of solar insolation out there today .

 

[dendrite]

HRRR has a good bead on that convection in S VT/NW MA. It should be outta my area by 15z and then we warm sector for a few hours. 

[wxeyeNH]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The kind of talk from the forecast offices usually makes me want to run in the opposite direction, but honest to God even on my trips out to the Midwest people are watching and waiting to see if severe ingredients come together for an active day. 

We’ll just have to watch the trends I guess. 

I forgot, there is the "enhanced" before we would get to moderate

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Was thinking this stuff and debris clouds could hamper development further east? Although Tuesday was fairly cloudly and look what happened?

[Cyclone-68]

Meh…Gloomy outside currently

[JJBASHB]

June 1, 2011 had morning activity.  
 

but it was legit am severe as the EML moved into the area, IIRC.  

[WxWatcher007]

This thread is going to be funny if people wake up and get frustrated as the clouds fail to dissipate and LFOs walk back from their strongly worded morning discussions.  

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snoozer here, as you’d expect 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

51 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

cloudy here  did see some low level clouds cruising by though

Same here. He is way south of us so different.

[Cyclone-68]

Sun is starting to peek out here and looking at satellite the clouds are starting to break going back to NY state so we will see I guess 

[JJBASHB]

[Torch Tiger]

 cloudy 73.2.  We very safe

[HoarfrostHubb]

This air is so foul though

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This air is so foul though

Farts? What’d y’all eat for dinner last night?

[ineedsnow]

43 minutes ago, JJBASHB said:

June 1, 2011 had morning activity.  
 

but it was legit am severe as the EML moved into the area, IIRC.  

one of the best days ever.. I was chasing the Northampton storm and it was wild then on the way back I had the Springfield tornado cross in front of me on 91

[yoda]

No change in the 1300z SPC OTLK

[weatherwiz]

Lapse rates suck which will hold back potential. Decent CAPE with strong shear so they’ll be some nasty storms about. At doctor now. Hopefully I can get out and chase after but depends how early things fire up. 

[Spanks45]

75/74 here, with a southerly breeze, it smells like the ocean and feels like Florida. Some sun peaking through, storms like to die out as they approach this small valley...so not expecting anything crazy, but we shall see I guess. This neighborhood did have the tornado remnants pass through back in 2018, so I guess it can happen.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

HRRR has a good bead on that convection in S VT/NW MA. It should be outta my area by 15z and then we warm sector for a few hours. 

Let’s spin.