Powerball Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Radar and satellite is looking good for you all again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 For all of the Indiana posters who are watching the severe threat being pushed father north into Michigan with each model run, IND is throwing out a bone by tossing the CAM guidance. It will be interesting to see what SPC says in their Day 1 update. Potential for severe weather is increasing for Central Indiana for this evening and into tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough, already evident on satellite imagery in Minnesota, dives southeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by tonight. At the surface, a quasistationary NW-SE oriented boundary extends from Southern Minnesota to Southern Indiana. RAP mesoanalysis data shows a sharp Theta-E and SBCAPE gradient along this boundary as well as a PWAT and low level moisture max along and southwest of this line. A southwesterly 20-35 kt low level jet is currently flowing perpendicular to this boundary, increasing lift right along it, and also increasing low level shear to values conducive for organized convective development. The presence of this sharp boundary and a related instability gradient, along with mean 850-300mb winds out of the NW, suggests southeastward storm propagation along this boundary and into the region. Moist air advection into Central Indiana today will be aided by both the persistent low level jet today and the rainfall from earlier this morning, likely keeping dew points and low level moisture values above what CAMs guidance has been showing for this afternoon and evening. Latest satellite imagery this morning also shows high clouds associated with thunderstorm blow off across much of Southern Illinois and Indiana. These clouds may further enhance the instability boundary during the day by setting up a differential heating boundary between the clearer skies further north and cloudier skies further south. With all this being said, confidence is increasing in deviating from short term guidance, which shows the current MCV in Minnesota pushing towards Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan today. Additional convective development expected along said MCV. Our current thinking is that this complex will follow the axis of higher dew points/moisture and ride along the instability/theta-E gradient with the mean 850-300mb flow southeastward toward Central Indiana. Potential is there for additional convective development along and south of the path of the MCV along the aforementioned boundary within Central Indiana. While this does deviate from what CAMs guidance is showing, CAMs did not pick up well on the early morning convection which will influence the evolution of storms later this afternoon. CAMs are also notorious for over-mixing the PBL and drying out the lower levels too much within this type of atmospheric set-up. We will have to keep a close eye on the track of the MCV to the north through the day, as its track will be pivotal in determining where the best severe threat is this afternoon through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 To each their own but I’m not a fan of severe wind, hail and rain. All it means to me is the clean up after. We have a back up natural gas generator thankfully but the power outages are also a pain for many. The power was out for 35 hours here from the last storm a few days ago and still lots of clean up is needed in places. A good buddy of mine has major hail damage to his truck also from the last storm. Hopefully today’s storms fizzle out, we’ve had enough I feel at least here in the thumb of the MI. It hasn’t been as bad up north but again we don’t need any severe storms up there either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 State line special coming in hot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Well look at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 And round 2 to follow still in Southeast Minnesota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Going to get boned by a split. What a refreshing change of pace… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 It's a beaut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Stateline storms continuing to mature into a large bowing structure. Southern Michigan derecho incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 prayers for jonger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Waiting for SPC to load but got a push notification of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for at least parts of Michigan and extreme Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Waiting for SPC to load but got a push notification of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for at least parts of Michigan and extreme Northern Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 there we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 48 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to get boned by a split. What a refreshing change of pace… MKE has more hours of smoke this year than TSRA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Reel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 So far torrential rain but no hail or severe wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Power’s flashing here, we had some good wind for awhile, but probably not over 40 mph or so. Still… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Hopefully, that gap fills in for frostfern's sake... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Miss north stank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 I just hope there is a round 2 on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: Hopefully, that gap fills in for frostfern's sake... It will fill in once it gets east of me. Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, frostfern said: It will fill in once it gets east of me. Watch. Gapped, guaranteed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Wonder if that convection staring up in west Indiana will amount to anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Looked good on radar through N IL, but not seeing all that many ground reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkeWeather Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Wonder if that convection staring up in west Indiana will amount to anything I hope not. I have 150ac of hay to bale yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, DarkeWeather said: I hope not. I have 150ac of hay to bale yet today. Definitely don’t blame you there. That’s quite a bit to get done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 3 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Latest HRRR model this morning. If that verified it would be the most severe storm I'd have in years. I'm watching this setup closely, I'm clear aside from smoke all morning and its sultry unlike any summer day so far. I was laughing when my forecast for later today yesterday showed just "rain at times heavy" instead of chance of storms lmao. That algorithm is so damn bad it hurts, its obvious that was bs! The SPC had me under a Slight when that turd was presented. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 The cell headed for Muskegon is looking beefier. Wonder if it will acquire rotation if it gets more surface based eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 I’ll leave this here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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