nwohweather Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 I figured I’d get this rolling with a Day 2 Enhanced. Definitely some solid chances tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: I figured I’d get this rolling with a Day 2 Enhanced. Definitely some solid chances tomorrow evening Possible crusher rolling through. See how the convection in the Dakotas area plays out today and tomorrow morning for the southern lakes. Getting some may 2004 vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Nice analog to start the day. Anyone remember this baby rolling through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Rip stebo 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 3 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Nice analog to start the day. Anyone remember this baby rolling through? Back when we actually had storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 nadocast day2 is very bullish on the tornado potential in se michigan/Detroit area tomorrow... highly doubt that this verifies but will be interesting to see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, nvck said: nadocast day2 is very bullish on the tornado potential in se michigan/Detroit area tomorrow... highly doubt that this verifies but will be interesting to see I’m not sure how the Detroit metro would handle a sig tor.. been a very long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, nvck said: nadocast day2 is very bullish on the tornado potential in se michigan/Detroit area tomorrow... highly doubt that this verifies but will be interesting to see lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: lol Bloody hell… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Rip stebo I had a good run Seriously though, this has a pretty good potential, I don't want to get fully invested yet because MCVs can and often do funny shit. That being said could I see a 8/9/21 type output, absolutely. Could I also see a high end MCS out of this, absolutely. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Nice analog to start the day. Anyone remember this baby rolling through? Hi-res reflectivity from 2004? crazy. The enhanced outlook was a little bit of a surprise for me, but I did see the higher winds at 850-500mb in yesterdays models. and now, the convection-allowing models show much more on the thunderstorm coverage. I suppose you could say the NADOcast is just taking into account the higher low level 850mb winds and wind shear values, which is something that increases tornado potential. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Hi-res reflectivity from 2004? crazy. The enhanced outlook was a little bit of a surprise for me, but I did see the higher winds at 850-500mb in yesterdays models. and now, the convection-allowing models show much more on the thunderstorm coverage. I suppose you could say the NADOcast is just taking into account the higher low level 850mb winds and wind shear values, which is something that increases tornado potential. How do you think it will play out In the Lima, Findlay, and Toledo corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Southern WI removed from the slight risk on the updated Day 2. Lame, but could see it coming based on the model trends. Amazing how literally everything this year has skipped us, except for 3/31 when I was in Iowa going after the bigger fish ( ). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Currently in the enhanced but I think it may be a close call this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 54 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: How do you think it will play out In the Lima, Findlay, and Toledo corridor? I think there's kind of a consensus that looks like the last severe squall line on 7/20, such that several storms develop in Michigan and then go east into Ontario, and more south from there. The WRF-NSSL has a lot more development, breaking the cap, I suppose, into Ohio and Indiana. That's the thing. The 12km NAM predicts a capping inversion of 1 degree C in Indiana, which could be a reason that not a lot gets going. But that's the reason that SPC highlights a blob-shaped area every single day. Because convective development is not that easy to figure out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Chinook said: I think there's kind of a consensus that looks like the last severe squall line on 7/20, such that several storms develop in Michigan and then go east into Ontario, and more south from there. The WRF-NSSL has a lot more development, breaking the cap, I suppose, into Ohio and Indiana. That's the thing. The 12km NAM predicts a capping inversion of 1 degree C in Indiana, which could be a reason that not a lot gets going. But that's the reason that SPC highlights a blob-shaped area every single day. Because convective development is not that easy to figure out. Even the stuff that formed around Lima was pretty entertaining. Thank you for you input hoping for a shift south to give the DTW area a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Latest 12z HRDPS showing a look similar to the Chicago double Derecho on June 30, 2014 except further east https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20140630 Ah. That was a classic Lieowa day. I was chasing out there in the 15% hatched / double-digit STP bullseye, but it blew up into an insta-squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 The 18z HRRR shows the overnight MCS system in Wisconsin that quickly advances to being a bow echo in mid-Michigan. Basically it says the rain misses OH/IN. It says the big stuff goes from the west side of Saginaw County to about the east side of Tuscola County in just 1 hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 25, 2023 Author Share Posted July 25, 2023 30 minutes ago, Chinook said: The 18z HRRR shows the overnight MCS system in Wisconsin that quickly advances to being a bow echo in mid-Michigan. Basically it says the rain misses OH/IN. It says the big stuff goes from the west side of Saginaw County to about the east side of Tuscola County in just 1 hour. Hell of a bow echo there. Definitely the M-10 special right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Definitely some nastiness. @Lightning @frostfern would be a crusher for you guys 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 LOT with a nice write up of the potential on the afternoon AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Definitely some nastiness. @Lightning @frostfern would be a crusher for you guys Porcupine Mtns Edit: At least I can get a report from the family about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Southern WI removed from the slight risk on the updated Day 2. Lame, but could see it coming based on the model trends. Amazing how literally everything this year has skipped us, except for 3/31 when I was in Iowa going after the bigger fish ( ). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk I would take several years of no t-storms IMBY just to see that one event though. I've never even seen a tornado in person (if you don't count waterspouts). I have seen some decent supercells with large hail while chasing in MI, but never saw more than scuddy wall clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Every hour of the HRRR has been a significantly different outcome. Very fluid situation as CAMs are struggling with actual placement of storm development with every advancing hour. I don’t think we’ll have much of an idea of what truly transpires until at least 06-12z tomorrow when upstream convection develops. At that point it’ll be easier to differentiate CAMs and other short range guidance into a solution more likely to transpire; hence the blob vs. a more detailed outline for tomorrows SVR WX outlook. One thing for certain is the ingredients in place for tomorrow are better than average for this summer at least. Plenty of heat, higher surface dew points, potent shortwave approaching, deep layer around ~50kts, high lapse rates, etc… all depends on what develops overnight into tomorrow morning. Obviously a better chance if more instability is realized and less morning cloud cover materializes. Finally, something to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 If there is a late-morning MCS, it could already be severe, but it will be over once it passes. Then the only supercell/tornado threat will be later in the evening where the southern edge of the outflow ends up. If there is no late morning MCS, afternoon cells could form right on the lake breeze. That scenario would be more interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 hoping for something photogenic down the lake over the city this evening, feels like a toss up but haven't dug in much prayers 4 stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: hoping for something photogenic down the lake over the city this evening, feels like a toss up but haven't dug in much prayers 4 stebo The lake makes for some great pics. I’m hoping for some good ones over farm land. Hopefully Stebo has his concrete shoes today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Latest HRRR model this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now