WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 The WPC has placed much of New England in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. After a very wet July, we have PWATS between 2-3 SD and a boundary moving toward the region, bringing the risk of flash flooding. With anomalous shear, modest helicity, and low LCLs, there is a tornado threat as well with the SPC introducing a 2% tor risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just added this thought in the other thread before this was created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, OceanStWx said: Happy to stand down if you don't want a separate thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Happy to stand down if you don't want a separate thread. I have a feeling this thread will be big by the end of tomorrow.. thanks for starting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Happy to stand down if you don't want a separate thread. Nah, I just hit send before I saw we were splitting it out. I wanted to make sure it was included here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Unusually large bounded region spans much of eastern PA/NY and most of NE … swept over by near/at historic PWAT air mass is modeled to be in nexus with positive sheer, while modest hgt falls along with subtle yet crucial +difluence in mid levels may yet couple to an accelerating wind max AOs 300+ mb U/A up the St Law ~ lay/lon … the total manifold of all that gives an ominous cue for me. Current guidance is pushing climate thresholds for some of these concurrent metrics which strikes me as a favorable environment for ‘synergistic’ results. In short I’m inclined to believe the higher guidance … predetermining exact locations/strike axis presents certain challenges due to inherent model limitations in predictive skill wrt convective initiation and spatial distribution/interactivity For those with access to graphics by all means. I also believe this situation may warrant at least low risk for brief or even rain-wrapped TVS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Oops I started a thread too over the last half hr. Either way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 Widespread 2”+ in CT on the 00z HREF. Max stripe looks like the 00z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 Slight risk added for SNE with a 5% tor risk. ...Mid Atlantic to New England... A very moist airmass is in place across the East Coast with 1.9 to 2.2 inch PWAT values on most 00Z RAOBs and mid 70s dewpoints from the Carolinas to New England. Within this moist environment, SPC mesoanalysis suggests an uncapped ML parcel across much of New England early this morning which should remain through mid-day. Therefore, despite expansive cloud-cover and minimal surface heating, expect 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across New England this morning. Across the same region, surface flow will strengthen somewhat in response to the developing surface cyclone. A 40 knot low-level jet will develop and overspread New England between 12Z and 18Z. This will yield 0-500m SRH around 100 to 150 m2/s2 with clockwise curvature in the lowest 1km. Given the moist profile, lapse rates will be very poor which may result in relatively weak updrafts. However, if stronger, sustained updrafts can develop, a couple of tornadoes are possible across portions of New England, primarily before 17Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 80/77 at 2am HVN.. incredible. Wonder if any record high mins will be broken. Straight soup outside right now, Florida wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 .36 so far in E CT from torrential downpours. Maybe not the best day for BOX radar to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 First tor warning on the day in New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Thinking 12-20” here 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thinking 12-20” here Box likes your thinking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2nd tor warning south of albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Just now, WhiteLawns said: 2nd tor warning south of albany Big big day coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Tornado Warning NYC111-160915- /O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0005.230716T0850Z-230716T0915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 450 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Ulster County in east central New York... * Until 515 AM EDT. * At 450 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Hurley, or near Kingston, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 .40 so far from that one downpour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 IJD picked up 0.75" in one hour from 2-3 am. Very juicy airmass for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Tornado Warning NYC111-160915- /O.NEW.KALY.TO.W.0005.230716T0850Z-230716T0915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 450 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Ulster County in east central New York... * Until 515 AM EDT. * At 450 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Hurley, or near Kingston, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Just noticed this thread... I'm in Kingston and woke up to WEA tornado warnings about 25 mins ago. Fully embedded couplet was easy to track over time. Missed me to the west a bit but it wouldn't surprise me if there were some light damage in town somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Kudos to the BOX techs who got the call around 2 AM that the radar went down, and currently have it back up and running. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Not a bad looking couplet on that TOR northwest of EWR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Put another .4 in the bucket and pouring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 LCLs down to 500m with 150 J of 3km CAPE and an area of decent sfc vorticity. Would be shocked not to see a few brief tornadoes around today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Another tornado warning includes the western Berkshires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 And another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 No MCD yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 I kind of wish I were back in Westborough today. Enjoy/safe (if needed) down there. Looks relatively mundane above PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: No MCD yet Kind of surprised I'm sure one will be up soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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