TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Long night with the dog. Ended up with .84 had some house shaking booms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Moderate flash flood risk for all of the CT River Valley of New England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 The lightning map looks 'spicy' - and even though I am apparently miles and miles away from the nearest strokes shown on the map, I am hearing distant low rumbles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That stuff in southwest Connecticut working with some good parameters. Between 1,000-1,500 MUCAPE and some pretty good shear. Sfc instability is weak, but man if any cells can become surface rooted could see some large hail (plenty of hail CAPE) and damaging wind gusts. solid winds on velocity scans.. I wonder whats making it down to surface over Redding currently.. Thats about 20 minutes from here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: solid winds on velocity scans.. I wonder whats making it down to surface over Redding currently.. Thats about 20 minutes from here ... Yeah looks like they could be gusting 40-45 mph...assuming winds are mixing to the sfc. Would be a good proxy to gauge whether any of this convection is rooted more sfc or elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 Here's the 12z OKX sounding. Some good instability aloft. Definite boundary in the llvls. llvl shear is meh but pretty solid getting aloft. Going to be an interesting day. I wish Albany was doing launches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Looks like 9pm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like 9pm out Complete garbage by the CAMs lately. This stuff now, almost looks modeled better yesterday compared to now. They insist on killing it, but that ain't happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Looks like a bow trying to form in SW CT moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Complete garbage by the CAMs lately. This stuff now, almost looks modeled better yesterday compared to now. They insist on killing it, but that ain't happening. I agree, CAM's yesterday evening were more realistic than what they were this morning when they were dry 3 hours out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like 9pm out Yes, it looks pretty eerie here... You must be hearing muffled distant thunder as well... (but maybe it's not that distant from you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 The wind signal has died out … meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Looks more like heavy rain threat til the warm front can move back north .. and once that warm front surges north looks like we 70+ dews for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Brief gusts to maybe 40ish, lots of lightning and thunder....pretty run of the mill thunderstorm. Between overnight and now, this might be the most lightning and thunder I have seen around here in the past 3 years combined. Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Future radar looks like a classic 7/10 split here, and the lines dying as it reaches us at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Just blew through here with 20-30mph wind.. Not much lightning or thunder but some torrential rain obviously.. half inch in 8 minutes still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Future radar looks like a classic 7/10 split here, and the lines dying as it reaches us at the same time. "Complete garbage by the CAMs lately. This stuff now, almost looks modeled better yesterday compared to now. They insist on killing it, but that ain't happening." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 inch now in 13 minutes. IMG_0784.mov 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Can’t remember seeing that much lightning on a map so early in the day around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Future radar looks like a classic 7/10 split here, and the lines dying as it reaches us at the same time. Might be in the same boat here, heaviest looks to be along I-84 corridor west; while I’ll see some rain it looks like heaviest stays south and west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 about to get hit good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Is this Tblizz looking out at his yard? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 43 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like 9pm out wow you weren't kidding. Looks like that here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Not sure we recover much for widespread activity in SNE today. This cluster may mess it up. Might be some nocturnal stuff again tonight though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure we recover much for widespread activity in SNE today. This cluster may mess it up. Might be some nocturnal stuff again tonight though. I agree. It's going to be tough I think. If we were going to push dews into the lower 70's we probably would have had a chance. The last few runs of the HRRR I think indicate differential heating boundaries may be a focal point for re-development later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, mreaves said: Is this Tblizz looking out at his yard? That may be me in CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Long night with the dog. Ended up with .84 had some house shaking booms Composure treats natural calming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 Lightning hit and lost internet briefly. Dog went wild too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Rogue cell on that dying line last night as it moved east from NH/VT yielded 0.27" in about 20 mins around 10:30 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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