weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 As of this writing we have a deepening surface cyclone slowly lifting northeast across southern Quebec province. This is aiding in a northward progression of rich low-level theta-e air with strengthening wind fields in response. There is also a plume of modified elevated mixed-layer air moving across the region. In closer proximity to the surface cold front and surface trough, numerous thunderstorms have developed across upstate New York with mixed modes containing discrete cells and the organization of a squall line. The environment is plenty conducive for numerous strong-to-severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds and/or large hail with the potential for a few tornadoes. In addition, combination of upscale linear growth with slow southeast advancement as the system becomes parallel to the upper-level flow will result in long-duration torrential downpours yielding the risk for flash flooding - perhaps significant in some spots. As we move deep into the evening, this line should advance across New England, however, as we will lose the diurnal heating this line will be weakening. Enough wind shear and elevated CAPE will keep the low probability for some localized severe weather into the overnight. Given the system becoming parallel to the upper-level flow, the progression of the cold front will slow. This is starting to become better identified within forecast model guidance. This will likely allow the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday. While the environment will not be as prime as it is today, the risk for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with al hazards will be in place. Flash flooding will also be possible Friday and some significant flash flooding is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Drastic differences between 3km NAM and HRRR though for this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 WRF- ARW looks good for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Made a weenie pilgrimage to Xenia OH today. Was hoping for severe but it mostly went south along the floor of the OV. Anyway... good luck back home. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Looks like a supercell may cross Lake Champlain into Burlington, VT and Colchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 BTV discussion (will Wiz make his wife read it to him- not for lack of ability to comprehend): https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 PM EDT Thursday...Active severe weather is ongoing through this evening as an unseasonably strong low pressure system drags a cold front eastward through our region tonight. As expected, ingredients are present for rotating thunderstorms in this region, near the triple point of a dynamic low pressure system passing northeastward through the St. Lawrence Valley. Our thermodynamic environment is impressive with mixed layer CAPE at 2 PM of 1500-2000 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates and moderate mid-level lapse rates helping updrafts strengthen. Southwesterly wind shear is ample to keep storm structures organized, with effective shear of 30 to 35 knots, and rotation is substantial with 0-1 km helicity of 100 to 150 m2/s2. Additionally, strong synoptic southerly winds will gradually expand eastward, which are being channeled up the Champlain Valley with wind gusts locally near 35 MPH. An occasional stronger gust may cause isolated damage outside of the thunderstorms, especially where we`ve seen very wet conditions. A mixture of storm modes are present, which include linear segments and discrete cells, which could include supercells. The main hazards are damaging winds and flash flooding. Wind damage has already been reported in the northern New York this afternoon. Rotating storms have resulted in a reported funnel cloud, but relatively high cloud bases (3000 feet or higher) may limit the tornado potential. As thunderstorms expand northward and eastward off of the Adirondacks, we will be concerned with rotating storms and enhanced gusts in the Champlain Valley due to enhanced low level convergence. As the evening progresses, any discrete storms should tend to be absorbed into a single fast moving squall line. Brief spinups are possible along this line, and its fast forward speed will tend to keep its severity going all the way eastward through Vermont even as daytime heating. Scattered wind damage is expected with the squall line. Less wind will be needed to produce downed trees than typical given saturated soils in most areas currently in a flood watch. Where a combination of discrete and linear storms move over the same area, flash flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rain remains possible. A heightened concern for flooding remains in our hard hit areas of central Vermont, where capacity for additional heavy rain is low. Improving conditions will arrive overnight with winds becoming light and drier air settling in behind the cold front. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Can watch storm come into Burlington off the lake here: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Other views here: https://www.wcax.com/weather/cams/ current cell may go straight over the airport soon (edit- looks like it will miss to the west (behind the camera) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, radarman said: Made a weenie pilgrimage to Xenia OH today. Was hoping for severe but it mostly went south along the floor of the OV. Anyway... good luck back home. I’ve always wanted to do this. I’m jealous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 It looks like the cell moving into Addison County is being picked up by this camera in Middlebury: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Tor Warning Base Scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 We just got very lucky here. Given everything the past few days the last thing I wanted was to be without power. All set on weather right now. Radar velocity shows we just missed a good pulse of 50kt wind like a mile or two to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Yeah some really good winds on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Burlington VT 639 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 NYC031-VTC001-021-132245- /O.CON.KBTV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230713T2245Z/ Essex NY-Addison VT-Rutland VT- 639 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...SOUTHWESTERN ADDISON AND NORTHWESTERN RUTLAND COUNTIES... At 639 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Lake Dunmore, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Essex, southwestern Addison and northwestern Rutland Counties, including the following locations... Benson Bay, Catfish Bay In Addison County, Huntley Island, Forest Dale, Beadles Cove, Larrabees Point, Beartrap Island, Kerby Point, Hollands Pasture Island, and East Shoreham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Tornado warning for cell headed into western MA but it seems more like a straight line wind signal then tornadic to me but it’s close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 Storms just reached Rutland but the camera faces east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 Anvil from that tornado warned storm heading into Pittsfield 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 This is some insane lightning and rain. Holy shit. Strobes and buckets of water. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 That's a hell of a bow in central VT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is some insane lightning and rain. Holy shit. Strobes and buckets of water. Where about is your location? RadarScope it out if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2023 Author Share Posted July 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where about is your location? RadarScope it out if you can. After the winds probably in the Atlantic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a hell of a bow in central VT. Won’t take much wind with soil conditions there to bring down some trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 New tornado warning in eastern NY. What a day out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where about is your location? RadarScope it out if you can. My address is the Stowe dot on this radar. I labeled it Stowe but that’s my literal address. Is there a way to get lat/lon off it? If you are to zoom in, default “Stowe” on RadarScope is like 1 mile ESE on RT 100 (the road shown). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 I could see the cell from the college in Gardner MA at 7PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: My address is the Stowe dot on this radar. I labeled it Stowe but that’s my literal address. Is there a way to get lat/lon off it? If you are to zoom in, default “Stowe” on RadarScope is like 1 mile ESE on RT 100 (the road shown). Oh so you’re basically the default “Stowe” on RadarScope? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 It should be here any minute https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVTNORWI24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 And it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 13, 2023 Share Posted July 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh so you’re basically the default “Stowe” on RadarScope? Yeah I’m right there… like a handful of pixels NW. Right on Mountain Road and the Rec Path. But if you use default “Stowe” and go a shade NW that’s literally overhead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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