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July 9th - 11th significant flood event


ineedsnow
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17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm really worried about our snowmobile trail system.  It would be a huge blow budget-wise.

Let’s hope by the time we are ready to sled…this is all repaired and just a memory. I’m hoping with you pal that it isn’t an issue by December…:sled:

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47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s full, but so far only flooding parts of the forest along it.  It’s in the trees in some spots but those are like the first line of defense.  It’s not to the full high water mark I’ve seen where it’s fully out of the woods and into yards.

I do think another 2-3” would start to get real interesting though.

This thing can be ankle deep trickle I just walk up and down with the dog.  Now it’s 10+ feet of muddy debris filled water.

21F2FD12-87BF-468A-9B2B-7E77B9EAA7F1.jpeg.6b6cd5dd87fd7a87c6e68f3a61780637.jpeg

We have a brook like that running not more than 100 meters from my house ... In late August after a dry summer - like last year - it has stretches that are stenchy mud and stained rocks with flies buzzing around.   But in March 2010 we received 15" of rain that month and it was level with the bridge which is about 10 foot over the creek bed. 

I've lived in this house/town a lot longer than I ever intended to ... but spanning the 12 years I have, I've seen it only once that high associated with that March flood.  A little farther down stream it was over one of the main roads into the center of the town which had to be temporarily shut down.

Here's an interesting aspect ... About 9 years ago the town charted some geologist to dig sample wells, and they drilled pipe sized hole through the street out in front of my house, and then down another 90 foot. The effort was a remediation/assessment for Arsenic contamination off Deven's military landfill - now defunct for many years, but a gift that keeps on leachin'   ...  Anyway, I wondered over and made conversation with one of them as a fellow earth sciences major... She was telling me that they went down 90 feet and the whole distance, all they plumbed out was effluvium - the type of sandy soot you get from floods.   That means... every oh ...700 years of something some kind of a bible flood fills this entire area deep enough to deposit a new stratum of sentiment. 

That's what she said, anyway.  I don't think it's that.  I suspect that it does that during glacial retreat... where dammed water can create transient lakes... 

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4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Looks like they just updated the Winooski flood forecast: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=MONV1&wfo=btv&refresh=true

Good luck to all in central VT.

That’s forecasted a hair higher than Irene. 

Only 1927 is higher.

https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/hf_november_1927

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10 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Looks like they just updated the Winooski flood forecast: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=MONV1&wfo=btv&refresh=true

Good luck to all in central VT.

Historic Crests
(1) 27.10 ft on 11/03/1927
(2) 19.05 ft on 08/29/2011
(3) 17.59 ft on 05/27/2011
(4) 17.55 ft on 06/30/1973
(5) 17.31 ft on 04/07/1912

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0690...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely

Areas affected...Northern NY...State of VT...Western NH...Western
MA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101540Z - 102140Z

SUMMARY...A significant and dangerous flooding event is likely to
continue in parts of central New England as excessive rainfall
rates look to persist into the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...An upper low is beginning to form over central NY
while an 850mb low is taking shape over the Lower Hudson Valley.
Mean 850-500mb streamflow remains out of the south, and as the
upper low deepens this afternoon, winds in the in the 850-700mb
layer will become southeasterly. Latest RAP guidance shows strong
850mb theta-e advection originating from southern New England that
will then wrap around the northern flank of the 850mb low.
Unfortunately, this means that copious amounts of moisture will
still be at athe atmosphere's disposal. The aforementioned
southeasterly flow oriented orthogonally to the Green and White
Mountains will also enhance rainfall rates due to upslope flow.

Due to the large amount of cloud cover in place, CAPE values will
be hard to come by (up to 500 J/kg generally), capping most hourly
rainfall rates below 2"/hr. However, PWATs ranging between
1.5-1.75" remain at or above the 90th climatological percentile.
Sampled RAP soundings throughout the highlighted region feature
low-mid level RH values >90% and warm cloud layers up to 13,000ft
deep. So despite the lack of instability, strong vertical ascent
courtesy of divergent flow ahead of the upper low and a strong
southeasterly 850mb moisture transport supports warm rain
processes within areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Soils have become overly saturated and in some cases can no longer
take in any additional rainfall. FFGs are exceptionally low, with
portions of central and southern VT, western MA, and northeast of
KALB sporting 6-hr FFGs <1.5". The latest 12Z HREF is showing
30-40% probabilities of 6-hr QPF > 100-yr ARI between 18-00Z today
in northern VT, which is both impressive and highly concerning.
Given the impacts parts of the region have already witnessed from
this event, additional significant to even catastrophic impacts
are expected. Potential impacts include but are not limited to
flooded and washed out roads, flooded homes, mudslides, and fast
moving creeks and streams.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45237307 45237215 45187138 44707131 43557168
            42787211 42187268 42087331 42227380 42727410
            43847388 44777372 45137353
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4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

I can only imagine what another 7-8' of flood will do. This will make national news tonight.

This is the closest webcam I could find. I believe it's the Mad River in Waitsfield:

 

Mad river.jpg

That feeds into the winooski.  Its nowhere near the water level reached during Irene, thankfully.  Hopefully it doesnt get there.

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1 minute ago, Hitman said:

That feeds into the winooski.  Its nowhere near the water level reached during Irene, thankfully.  Hopefully it doesnt get there.

I just checked the Mad River forecast and it is forecast to be a major flood, but just barely whereas it was much higher during Irene. Good luck to all. 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=moov1&wfo=btv

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