Modfan2 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 FL like downpours currently; .75 and pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 BOX should just issue a FFW proactively. Slow eastward movement and long residence time of heavy rain makes it a given. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 I should say OKX most especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: It would be great to see the sun poke through for a few hours and see what severe could result Severe potential pretty low today IMO except maybe a rogue cell or two. Sun not much of a factor with this...instability is there due the high dews/theta-e air (granted mostly water loaded) but shear is really not much. Deal is there is plenty of buoyance to lift parcels, but just not enough forcing/dynamics to generate deep convection. Best convection right now near Syracuse where they are on the nose of some steeper mid-level lapse rates and dry slot just behind the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 30 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Not much of an event here. Different story in NW CT. Now in NE CT on its way to Worc County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Got to the office in Hyde Park. Unsure if I will have to end up sleeping here. Looks like 100 in Waterbury will go under water near Ben and Jerrys if we get much more. Saw one spot in Middlesex where the water could come onto I89. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Non event here too. A period or two of Rain. So much for the calls for torrential downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Okemo 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Quote Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0687 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 745 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Areas affected...Southern NH...Central MA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 101145Z - 101700Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall, possibly ranging between 1-1.5"/hr in the heaviest showers and storms, may cause flash flooding this morning in urbanized communities and locations with overly saturated soils. DISCUSSION...The surface low in the Long Island sound features a warm front stretching south of of the southern New England coast. As the morning unfolds, the upper trough will develop a 500-850mb low and continue to funnel SSE 850mb moisture flux into New England. PWATs are generally between 1.8-1.9", values that according to NAEFS are above the 97.5 climatological percentile at 12Z. MUCAPE is generally lacking, but values may approach 250-500 J/kg later this morning as the warm front inches north. The strong low level SE flow is ideal for upslope enhancement into the Worcester Hills and southern slopes of the Whites. The steady 300K isentropic lift will foster periods of heavy rain into the Merrimack Valley today as well. Lastly, there are also heavier showers approaching from RI that could lead to locally heavy rainfall in the Boston metro area. Given the lack of instability, this should help to limit the top end rainfall rates to be <1.5"/hr. That said, soils are still quite saturated thanks to 300-600% of normal rainfall over the past 7-days according to AHPS. As the 500mb trough takes on a slight negative tilt, there could be further enhancement of the precipitation shield into the late morning and early afternoon hours. Given the prolonged nature of the rainfall expected, flash flooding is possible this morning. Locations most vulnerable in the area highlighted with the heaviest rainfall over the past week, as well as urbanized communities and low-lying, poor drainage spots. Possible impacts include gradually rising streams/creeks and flooding/ponding on roadways. Mullinax ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX... ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 43587162 43367121 42927101 42237103 42217164 42027230 41997252 42217244 42557222 43047190 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Okemo Holy shit isn't there a ski/mtn bike shop there? I know where that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Wife and are going out for a walk. River in the back is almost to our parking lot. Stowe Country Club is under water. Town fields are gone. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Ginxy pool floats about to float over the pool edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Okemo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 In the winter an outcome like this is nightmare stuff here... today we take. Those pics out of VT are horrific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Yes. To whomever told me my house would be fine…it’s in Plymouth and is currently completely cut off. We have no idea if it is flooded or not. The power is out and the area has no cell service so our neighbors are both physically cut off and also have no means to communicate with the outside world. It’s bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 The fact that models still have it going after midnight tonight up here is concerning. 7am on EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 3.50+ now storm total here with today and tonight to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: 3.50+ now storm total here with today and tonight to go. How far from the edge or river /parking lot to your home and how much higher up is your place than where water is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Skivt2 said: Yes. To whomever told me my house would be fine…it’s in Plymouth and is currently completely cut off. We have no idea if it is flooded or not. The power is out and the area has no cell service so our neighbors are both physically cut off and also have no means to communicate with the outside world. It’s bad. I said your house would probably be fine because you up on the hill. Of course I said that not knowing how close you were to any streams. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Holy shit isn't there a ski/mtn bike shop there? I know where that is. You knew where it was*. Fixed it for you. She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 In a brief lull, up to 1.23”; heavier rain starting up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Non event here too. A period or two of Rain. So much for the calls for torrential downpours. We’ve had close to 2 inches in Greenfield since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Powderfreak going to be floating on a raft watching tv in the living room tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Powderfreak going to be floating on a raft watching tv in the living room tonight? Seriously, I hope our VT friends stay safe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 12z 3K NAM looks more realistic to me vs HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Powderfreak going to be floating on a raft watching tv in the living room tonight? Nah, He'll take his river chair and dangle his feet in the water to cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 This will be fun at the hydrodam in Winooski when it crests. I have been there when the river floods and the water release is an experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seriously, I hope our VT friends stay safe. Yes , seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BOX should just issue a FFW proactively. Slow eastward movement and long residence time of heavy rain makes it a given. Good point - E CT / NW RI about to float away and incoming for ORH county Should be some impressive totals next 3-4 hours in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 3K is probably worst case for PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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